[jlisenbe]

De Santis vs. Biden. How much election thievery would the dems have to engage in to get a win for JB?

[tomder55]

That will be one of Trump's big talking points and one of his major issues, He will spend the primary season at least alternating between complaining about 2020 and trashing members of his own party. If Trump is the nominee the election will be a referendum again on the Trump Presidency and not on Clueless Joe's record.

That is why one of Trump's biggest financial supporters ;Hall Lambert ,founder of Point Bridge Capital and super pac “MAGA ETF” ,has abandoned Trump in favor of DeSantis.

Donald Trump Megadonor Abandons Him as He Predicts Collapse in Support (newsweek.com)

“I want to win in November, and I don’t think Trump will win,” he said by email. “If you look at the map, the states we need, he is losing or has lost previously.”

Prior Donald Trump, Jeb Bush backers prepped to bundle funds for Ron DeSantis (floridapolitics.com)

Although anything can happen in a year and half ;at this time the electoral map is pretty simple . There are only 6 swing states.,,,, North Carolina ,Georgia, and Arizona in the South and West ;and the Midwest has Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Trump won all 3 Midwest states in 2016 and lost all 3 in 2020 . They are a block of electoral votes . But they lost 2 electors due to population migration. They can be picked off by the Repub candidate . Or one or two of them can be picked off if the Repub wins the other 3 states .

IMO It is imperative that the GOP nominee win the other 3 states .

NC increased it's electors from 15 to 16 mostly retirees from the North and progressive youth who relocated to the Professional Core area of Winston-Salem .

Georgia has gone blue the last 2 election cycles and it is mostly anti-Trump backlash and ballot harvesting rules .

Arizona the same . Their move to blue could be a one off or a trend.

The GOP no matter who is the nominee will have to deal with rules that have become 'permanent' . Voting rules can only be changed when the GOP is in a position to change them . The states that allow harvesting ,drop boxes ,early voting do so because the people in those states like it even though they were implemented due to the pandemic crisis and often imposed unconstitutionally. The States will have had 4 years to change the rules if the people truly opposed them.



Arizona

[jlisenbe]

Perhaps the biggest challenge will be a national news media which has very little in the way of ethics and actively works to accomplish select political objectives. Trump gives them too much ammunition to work with. I don't think DeSantis will make that mistake. And then, of course, will be the predictable woman to come along with unprovable accusations of sexual misconduct against DeSantis. And that's not to mention the very possible participation of the FBI in working to elect Biden. It will be a high hill to climb.

[tomder55]

Trump represented a populist movement . DeSantis represents that movement becoming mainstream (at least at the Repub party level). There is a long litany of populist leaders who have led revolts against the "establishment" be they called Eastern elites or now the Swamp people who distrust central power.

But populism is rhetorical. DeSantis has institutionalized the revolt at least at the state level .The question is can his model work nationally ? He isn't a burn it all down guy . He is more of a use what it there to make and cement the changes .

[jlisenbe]

He isn't a burn it all down guy . He is more of a use what it there to make and cement the changes .

The first discouraging words about him that I've heard.

[tomder55]

It works . He bucked national trends about covid restrictions ;won the battle to restrict abortions ;instituted permitless carry ;cracked down on illegal immigrants ;limited transformer therapy and banned it on kids;stopped drag queen for kids shows ;stopped schools from indoctrinating children to sexual orientation ;blocked extremely biased African American studies curriculum and ended Disney's special tax status ...all inside to framework of existing rules.

[Wondergirl]

The first discouraging words about him that I've heard

At least DeSatan isn't orange. Is like the tv series, Orange is the New Black.

[jlisenbe]

It works . He bucked national trends about covid restrictions ;won the battle to restrict abortions ;instituted permitless carry ;cracked down on illegal immigrants ;limited transformer therapy and banned it on kids;stopped drag queen for kids shows ;stopped schools from indoctrinating children to sexual orientation ;blocked extremely biased African American studies curriculum and ended Disney's special tax status ...all inside to framework of existing rules.

All very true. Come to think of it, Trump really didn't burn anything down that I can think of. My concern is that to balance the budget, major, major changes are going to have to take place. The corruption in the FBI needs to be addressed. DeSantis has put forward the idea of doing away with the IRS and simply using a flat tax. I don't know that this idea will work with businesses and corporations since that is a more complex situation, but I do like the direction it's going in.

[tomder55]

Trump has certainly threatened in his words to burn down the establishment Republican Party.That may be good long term . But he could be the Teddy Roosevelt that ushers in the Woodrow Wilson.

Trump suggested on the CNN Town Hall that we should default if the Dems don't agree to massive spending cuts . Admirable in theory .In practice it would be a disaster .

His stated campaign goal to drain the swamp was not successful .If anything he assisted them in having more control due to the government's covid response. In the last days of his administration he rescinded an earlier EO that banned Executive Branch aids from lobbying for 5 years or forever work for foreign lobbyist .

William Barr said it best
Unfortunately, after he was elected, Trump brought his wrecking-ball style to the task of governing the nation. He did not temper his disruptiveness and penchant for chaos. While his basic policy judgments were usually sound, his impulsiveness meant that things were almost always about to fly off the rails. When he became fixated on bad ideas or wanted to take things too far, it took his senior staff and cabinet secretaries an ungodly amount of maneuvering to keep him on track.

Trump threatens to burn down the GOP, it's time to move on (nypost.com)



Flat tax is a fair tax and so is a sales tax in exchange for lowering income taxes. I favor both ,eliminating as many subsidies and write offs as possible .and the elimination of the IRS as it is now constituted . It has almost become a militarized department

IRS has spent $10M on weapons, ammo and combat gear since 2020: watchdog (nypost.com)

It should not take you and I hiring accountants to figure out our personal tax obligations .

[jlisenbe]

Trump suggested on the CNN Town Hall that we should default if the Dems don't agree to massive spending cuts . Admirable in theory .In practice it would be a disaster .

Perhaps it would amount to choosing to take the inevitable disaster now rather than a few more years down the road in the hope that it would be a manageable disaster.

Flat tax is a fair tax and so is a sales tax in exchange for lowering income taxes. I favor both ,eliminating as many subsidies and write offs as possible .and the elimination of the IRS as it is now constituted .

It should not take you and I hiring accountants to figure out our personal tax obligations .

Completely agree.

[tomder55]

Nothing good comes from default .
Argentina is looking at a 90% + inflation rate this year . They defaulted in 2020 . Default does not end well. We have already had bonds downgraded from AAA to AA

Currency devaluation occurs which creates the hyper-inflation crisis in Argentina Default affects the interest rates, domestic stocks, and exchange rates.We would be forced to sell stocks at higher rates . Foreign investors try to dump existing stocks they own. Domestic markets have a hard time capitalizing . Recession follows.
Usually default nations turn to the IMF for relief . They impose draconian rules that makes the economic outlook worse.

[Wondergirl]

From today's Chicago Tribune, Letters to the Editor:

Thoughts from a Floridian
Being a Florida resident for 16 years, I believe that I am in a better position to evaluate the conditions under Gov. Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis did not create the tropical weather; establish that Florida would have no income tax; develop a strong recreational business environment, including Disney World; and place Florida between an ocean and a gulf ensuring water and boating activities.

He did, however, open up gun ownership without a permit, curtail women’s rights, create a state militia, fund an election rights curtailment force, attack a major corporate employer (Disney) when it disagreed with his attack on gay rights, defund public schools by funding charter schools for all income levels and oversee massive gerrymandering.

The Florida legislature has gutted a voter referendum allowing felons to secure the right to vote following completion of their sentences. There are these items, along with others not enumerated here.

Please watch DeSantis and his acolytes carefully. He has a dictatorial focus and represents a dangerous trend toward reducing individual rights.,

AND

I’m better off in Illinois
In response to Marko Sukovic’s op-ed regarding Gov. Ron DeSantis’s stance on crime in the state of Florida, I’ll gladly stay in crime-ridden Illinois instead of moving to hate-filled Florida.

[tomder55]

another letter to the editor ?

There are uninformed comments that make the rant not worth examining further


This is including "gun ownership without permit " .

That has been a law in Florida for many years. But that doesn't mean you can just go to the shop and buy a gun. There is a strict background check that has to be passed .There are also many people restricted from owning .


Florida is among half the state that now have conceal carry without permit and yes that happened during DeSantis watch.

Constitutional Carry / Unrestricted / Permitless Carry | USCCA (usconcealedcarry.com)

I heard the same uninformed rant from someone here is SC because SC would if the law passes the 51st state to have constitutional carry laws /

[tomder55]

Anyway it is fair to say that focusing on the culture wars can only get him so far. The audience for the culture wars is fixed and will not expand.

To expand his national base ,he needs to point out the state's economic achievements ;especially in the pandemic days

How has Florida fared economically under DeSantis’ watch? (tampabay.com)

The reason people are moving to Florida is not weather . People are leaving California which has a much better environment, And they are not moving to Florida because of his culture war battles.

They move there because the state is low tax/business friendly (yes even with the roll backs in benefits Disney is better off in Florida than any other state)

Yes his launch with Musk was shaky . But aligning himself with Musk could end uo being a genius move.

[Wondergirl]

California is a mess in all sorts of ways but I would hate Florida's humidity. My younger brother lives in Lakeland. My choice would be Utah.

[jlisenbe]

I doubt that she is going to run, but just in case, what do you think of Condoleezza Rice, Tom? I see her on Youtube from time to time and she is a really smart woman.

[Wondergirl]

Loser! She has never married and has no children.

[tomder55]

Condi Rice has the resume and the brains that we all envy. Never married ? Is that a shallow criteria I was not aware of ? This is the 21st century not the 19th. There is no more qualified woman in this country than her for the Presidency .


I guess that disqualifies Tim Scott too.
He never married because he wants to provide for his mother first .

Rice served in the administrations of Jimmy Carter ;GHW Bush ,and GW Bush in multiple positions including National Security Advisor (first woman in that position) and Sec State (1st Black woman in that position ) .She has close relations with former and current world leaders.
And she ran one of the biggest and most influential private enterprises in the country when she ran Stanford University as Provost.
In her spare time she is an accomplished classical pianist.

She is not an ideologue so she may not appeal to the fringe of either side. But she could appeal to the centrists and I think they will play a big factor in the current election.
I would vote for her in a second .

[jlisenbe]

I love listening to her speak. She has clearly thought the issues through very carefully. Her appearance on The (biased) View was a classic.

[Wondergirl]

And the (biased) Fox?