[tomder55]

News out of Ukraine is sparce and pro-Ukraine slanted . So I take most of it with a grain of salt .
That being said the news is that the anticipated Russian offensive has begun,

One of the scenarios that the talking heads have floated is that the Russians will do a pincer move from the north from Belarus ;and from the East and South The goal of this would be to trap Ukrainian fighting in the East and cutting them off from their supply lines.
Belarus-Ukraine border: Tensions mount amid concerns of a Russian spring offensive | CNN



We don't know if Russia has the force level to achieve that objective (estimates suggest Russia has perhaps 250,000 men in reserve and ready to join the fight.) .

We also don't know if Ukraine has withstood the Russian efforts to attrit it's forces AND we don't know if they have been resupplied sufficiently to withstand the offensive.

A couple examples . There have been talk of sending tanks and jets . But if they have not arrived to Ukraine then they will be too late . It will take weeks (and most likely months) before Ukraine can deploy sufficient numbers of the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles gifted by the West to have an impact. I have not seen reports of resupply of anti-aircraft weapons being sent except a hand full of Patriot systems. The Russians are said to be amassing their air power for the attack.

Western intelligence shows Russians amassing aircraft on Ukraine border | Financial Times

Of course this could all be an elaborate ruse like we did in Gulf War I, convincing Saddam that our main thrust would be a naval assault establishing a beach head in Kuwait .

But presuming Russian success ,do we accept defeat or does NATO send in forces ?(aka the US because NATO at this point is a US construct )

[tomder55]

Meanwhile there has been a ton of bloviating at the Munich Security Confence ....US delegation headed by Kam the Sham.

Sec State Blinken gave strong support for Moldova but came way short of a security guarantee. The USs “deep concern” about a possible coup attempt .
He said “We stand strongly with Moldova in support of its security, its independence, its territorial integrity, the very important reform efforts that the president and the government are making."

What does that mean ? Diddly and squat .

Kam the Sham and French Prez Macron (now there's a pair ) met to talk
“It is good to see you again, we have talked about so many issues of the moment and future, over the course of our visits,” Harris told the French president. “And to see you again here in Munich, and talk about, as a priority, our commitment, as a partner, to the people of Ukraine and many other issues. This is part of our continuing conversation that is the testament to the friendship and the partnership over many generations, including today.” Meanwhile Dem ranking member of the Armed Services Committee, Adam Smith, says that despite Ukraine's plans to go on the offensive and retake Crimea ; “I think there’s more of a consensus out there that people realize that Ukraine is not going to militarily retake Crimea,"

He is urging a negotiated settlement .

Smith didn’t rule out a fight for Crimea, which would be a Ukrainian decision.
But his comments reflect what appears to be a growing view in Washington that after a year of heavy fighting, some kind of agreement will need to be realized to end the war.

‘Ukraine is not going to militarily retake Crimea,’ top Democrat says - POLITICO

At least someone in our government is being realistic .

[jlisenbe]

US delegation headed by Kam the Sham.

Doesn't exactly raise high expectations.

[tomder55]

Next Quid is going to Poland to proclaim 'whatever it takes.'

[jlisenbe]

I love it when he gets so specific.

[tomder55]

How could Ukraine draw NATO directly into the fight ? By making a serious advance to take Crimea and the Russian naval base at Sevastapol .

Throughout it's history Russia has tried to secure warm water ports . The only ports they had were ones that were frozen much of the year. Catherine the Great colonized Crimea and Eastern Ukraine securing that port in 1787 .

Their other warm water port is at Tartus Syria . That is also under threat ;and the reason Russia intervened in the Syrian conflict . But the strategic jewel is Sevastapol. Russia cannot afford to lose it.

Russia maintained it presence there beyond the fall of the Soviet Union with a lease . While still President ,Viktor Yanukovych extended the Russian lease to 2042 . But as early as 2010 there were rumors that a pro-western government would move to oust Russia from the base. From the Russian perspective the geopolitical implications of losing access to the Black Sea is unacceptable.

Zelensky knows that Ukraine cannot win this war without NATO troops . So his best way to instigate such a result will be an offensive move against Russia in Crimea. Putin will do whatever it takes to prevent a Ukraine retaking of Crimea.

[tomder55]

This week marks the 1 year anniversary of the Russian attack . At a meeting in Munich , Kam the Sham accused Russia of 'war crimes ' and 'crimes against humanity ' . Now we know the US has no thoughts of a negotiated peace. For Putin this is now a war to the death ,

NATO chief Jan Stoltenberg offered sobering if not realistic warnings
NATO can't keep up with Ukraine's ammunition needs, says Stoltenberg (brusselstimes.com)

. "The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain."

"Orders placed today would be delivered two-and-a-half years later. So we need to ramp up production and invest in our production capacity."

I don't know anyone who thinks the war will drag on for 2 1/2 years .....except maybe Quid pro Joe who is counting on running as a war President in 2024. (whatever it takes .........IT being undefined ) .

Putin has stopped calling it a 'special military operation' and has Russia on a war footing .
Putin calls Ukraine conflict a 'war' for first known time in public | CNN

He also recognizes that he is in a war against principally against the US; even though for the moment ,Washington is using a proxy . (more than $ 100 billion sent to support the meat grinder ) .

From our past history of forever wars we know that the US will tire of the war and eventually clock out .

[jlisenbe]

. "The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain."

Amazing. How do they think they would ever be able to manage a full scale war with the Russkies?

[tomder55]

Quid made a surprise visit to Kyiv today to make a $ half billion American taxpayer's monopoly bucks deposit on the Biden Crime family's investments .

[tomder55]

fact neither Ukraine or the US has air dominance over Ukraine skies. Hey Evil Brandon is one tough dude. He took out Cornpop .

[tomder55]

Turns out we called Russia and asked them to not attack while Quid was in town. But as Quid and Zelensky were walking out for their photo-op ;an air raid siren suddenly began. Well at least Quid did not take a page from Evita and serpentine back to safety .

[tomder55]

Good news . According to Brit Defence Secretary Ben Wallace ;they have begun to "warm up" its production lines to replace weapons sent to Ukraine .

[tomder55]

Meanwhile this comment by Quid back in April has been making the rounds . I completely missed this one ...

This so-called supplemental funding addresses the needs of the Ukrainian military during the crucial weeks and months ahead. And it begins — it begins to transition to longer-term security assistance that’s going to help Ukraine deter and continue to defend against Russian aggression.
This assistance would provide even more artillery, armored vehicles, anti-armor systems, anti-air capabilities that have been used so effectively thus far on the battlefield by the Ukrainian warriors.
You know, and it’s going to deliver much-needed humanitarian assistance as well as food, water, medicines, shelter, and other aid to Ukrainians displaced by Russia’s war, and provide aid to those seeking refuge in other countries from Ukraine.
It’s also going to help schools and hospitals open. It’s going to allow pensions and social support to be paid to the Ukrainian people so they have something — something in their pocket.

Remarks by President Biden on the Request to Congress for Additional Funding to Support Ukraine - U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Italy (usembassy.gov)

Our pension systems are collapsing . SS will be belly up in a decade .

CBO’s 2022 Long-Term Projections for Social Security

Public unfunded pensions are a sieve on state and local budgets .At the time of this address there was $8.28 trillion in unfunded pension obligations .

Tackling $8.28 Trillion in Unfunded State Pension Liabilities - American Legislative Exchange Council - American Legislative Exchange Council (alec.org)


The U.S. is $32 trillion in debt and inflation, which is crushing American families and diminishing the value of families retirement savings, continues to rage.

Yet we have been funding the pensions of Ukraine for almost a year ?

[tomder55]

As China pretends to be an honest broker calling for a ceasefire ;they are planning on sending kamikaze drones for Russia to use.

This war resembles the Spanish Civil War (500,000 lost lives );the prelude to WWII . Both sides of the future conflict supported their proxies or actively participated with modern weaponry to test and perfect .

China is appearing to be the big winner . The US and the west are depleating their arsenal . Rival Russia sells them cheap oil and begs for China weapons . The doddering NATO alliance bickers over who should send weapons first ; hedges on an increase of defense to 3% of GDP (most nations in the alliance have not met the original 2% commitment );and secretly longs for the days before the war when Ostpolitik was the policy . They got a break with a mild winter . They may not be so lucky this year. Their commitment has a short timeline .

The Axis powers of today is becoming more defined. Russia ;Iran ;Turkey (depending on how the west bails them out from the aftermath of the earth quake) ;the NORKS ,and China .That is an axis that cuts right through the hear of Eurasia . Iran in exchange for drones will receive enriched uranium. That will give the axis 4 nuclear capable nations .
India is a fence sitter . When the dust settles she may be the last nation standing .

If history is a guide . The Ukraine war is a prelude.

[Athos]

If history is a guide . The Ukraine war is a prelude.

Still playing for the away team, Tom?

[tomder55]

You sound more and more like a McCathyite .

[Athos]

You sound more and more like a McCathyite .

Joe or Kevin?

[tomder55]

lol Kevin is all in on endless wars Joe McCarthy you see a Russian sympathizer in any opinion that is different than the deep state narrative. As this war drags on you will find more people with my pov . This war is not going to end in a Russian defeat without US blood spilled . Our feckless western NATO allies are already for a deal. We still think this is a low cost conflict . What is additional monopoly money as long as it is Ukrainians dying ?

[jlisenbe]

MTG has introduced a resolution that should pass with support with both sides (but won't) calling for an audit on how all of those 75 or so billion dollars have actually been spent. Pretty sure JB won't jump on board for that one.

[tomder55]

his family is vested in the outcome .