[tomder55]

Economists agree that two consecutive quarters of negative growth means the country is in a recession. The Fed will announce Thurday that we had a negative growth of about 2.1% this last quarter . The 1st qtr was negative 1.6% ;so it is getting worse. This will be the 2nd qtr of negative growth ;meaning we are in recession..........right ?

Well the Clueless Joe spin machine doesn't think so. The White House Council of Economic Advisers say otherwise.

“While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle.”

How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? | The White House

They say that the low unemployment rate shows we are not in recession.

But flashback to when Clueless was on the campaign trail during the height of the covid pandemic. Clueless said the economy was teetering on the edge of recession when there were zero quarters of negative growth and the unemployment rate 3.7% .

Joe Biden during SC campaign visit: Economy 'teetering on recession' (greenvilleonline.com)

We will now have had 2 qtrs of negative growth . But the good news for him is that the unemployment rate is 0.1% better now.

When asked about it Clueless responded
"We're not going to be in a recession, in my view," The unemployment rate is still one of the lowest we've had in history. It's in the 3.6% area. We still find ourselves with people investing."

um people do not stop investing during recession. For some investors that is the best time to invest .

"My hope is we go from this rapid growth to steady growth, so we'll see some coming down,"

Negative growth is now rapid growth ?

"But I don't think we’re going to, God willing, I don't think we’re going to see a recession."

Biden Doesn't Expect US to Go Into Recession - YouTube

The only way it is not recession is if there is Orwellian redefinition of the word .

It is not recession in the Owellian Biden-speak . It is called ......umm ...a "transition ". Yeah that's the ticket ! Don't believe me ? Just ask Treasury Sec Janet Yellen .

"We've got a very strong labor market,".. "This is not an economy that's in recession. Still, Yellen acknowledged the economy is "in a period of transition in which growth is slowing," from a historically rapid pace in 2021.She said that slowdown is "necessary and appropriate," because "we need to be growing at a steady and sustainable pace."

ICYMI: Treasury Secretary Yellen Says US Economy Not in Recession | The White House

Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, said the economy needs a "slowing" to "operate through this transition"

White House Economic Adviser Says ‘Slowing’ Of Economy Is Necessary | The Daily Caller

In a way she is right .This is the only way to correct failed overspending and monopoly money printing . But let's not pretend this is a good thing. Even the emperor's Treasury Sec Lawrence Summers understands what is happening .He says recession is likely and the reason is overspending .

'Soft landing' recession scenario unlikely amid stagflation, inflation: Larry Summers | Fortune

There would've been a more coherent response if Clueless was asked about the flavor of ice cream he ate today. For the rest of his economic team ;the lying is shameful.

[jlisenbe]

In a way she is right .This is the only way to correct failed overspending and monopoly money printing . But let's not pretend this is a good thing. Even the emperor's Treasury Sec Lawrence Summers understands what is happening .He says recession is likely and the reason is overspending .

I don't expect anything to change on that front. The corrections that would need to be made in spending would be so dramatic that the silly, non-thinking American people would be outraged at being deprived of our goodies. Perhaps no greater example exists than your noting yesterday of spending 1.5 bil on the American embassy in Ukraine. It just boggles the mind.

As to the redefining of the term "recession", we are living now in a brave new age where many terms are being redefined for no other reason than to keep people from having to face a sometimes unpleasant truth.

[tomder55]

Shopify announced a 10% reduction in the work force with many of the pink slips coming today. This will not be the only company downsizing it's force.

Walmart is tanking today as is GM .All this in the run up to the Fed meeting this week where interest rates will rise at least by a half point ;but more likely at 0.75 points .
Weber grill canned it's boss after disappointing sales numbers were announced . Why the disappointing numbers ? It is the same reason Walmart is tanking ;Because people don't have the disposable incomes during this inflation .

[jlisenbe]

I wonder how the Biden admin will find a way to redefine inflation. Perhaps it will become, "positive price growth". They will, one way or the other, blame it all on the Russkies. It was the same sad strategy used by Obama when everything was the fault of the previous Bush admin.

My memories of the Trump years become fonder by the day.

[tomder55]

He's dealing with inflation. Today he siphoned off another 20 million bb of oil from the strategic reserve hoping his flooding the market will bring the price down pennies .

Biden drops another 20 million barrels of oil from reserve and brags on declining gas prices (msn.com)

Oh the price is dropping . But that is because the lousy economy he is fostering on us during the "transition" is stifling demand .

[tomder55]

It is telling that the Dems and Clueless want to redefine the word 'recession ' rather than trying to fix it . In fact with the Orwellian legislation called 'The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022' aka Build Back Brandon Lite
($739 billion in new taxes and $443 billion in new spending programs);they are doubling down on the very failed policies that caused the inflation, that in turn is causing the recession.
The Clueless gang may not be competent in many things .But they are masters of spin.

National Economic Council Director Brian Deese said ..."in terms of the technical definition, it’s not a recession. The technical definition considers a much broader spectrum of data points" .
That of course flies in the face of what has been to date universally accepted as a definition of a recession.
I can't wait to hear how they redefine 'stagflation' . We are 3/4 the way there . Stagflation is high inflation.....stagnant or negative growth ....and high unemployment . Only technical low unemployment numbers are keeping us from being in stagflation .

Why is unemployment rate so low ? It is actually a distorted number and has been for many years .

As explained in WSJ by James Pierson ;

Today’s low unemployment rate obscures the substantial decline in workforce participation in recent years, as “dropouts” from the workforce aren’t included in the unemployment figures. If they were added, as some analysts think they should be, then the real unemployment rate wouldn’t be 3.6% but more like 9% or 10%.

Welcome to the Full-Employment Recession - WSJ

He's right of course . But he fails to mention why the labor force has shrunk.

Stephen Moore explains it however .

One of the worst mistakes in the Recovery Act was the supplemental unemployment benefits … with the supplemental UI [unemployment insurance], plus expanded food stamps, plus rental assistance, plus expanded Medicaid, and the evisceration of the Clinton-era work-for-welfare reforms, families with two unemployed parents and two kids could receive a tax-free income of $100,000 or more. … University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan and I published a paper last year showing that if we had reduced the payroll tax rather than increased unemployment benefits, we would have had 3 million more Americans working throughout 2020, 2021, and through the first half of 2022.

Mr. Moore_Testimony before the House Budget Committee (002).pdf

In reality we are in stagflation . Hey Clueless Joe ! The 1970s called .They want their economic theories back .

So there you have it .It was Democrat socialist policies that have caused the current economic situation . No wonder they want to redefine the problem away .

[tomder55]

Salena Zito nails it again .

At every turn, Biden has failed to look voters in the eye and tell them he feels their pain. He spends most of the time either blaming someone else or denying that the pain exists at all. It's all in your head.

On Thursday, hours after a new government report showed that the economy had shrunk for a second straight quarter, Biden rejected the very idea that the country was in a recession. “That doesn’t sound like recession to me,” he said. He then abruptly walked away from the podium and ignored the scores of question tossed at him by the White House press.
It may not sound like a recession to you. But have you asked anyone outside of experts, advisors and your staff what it feels like to the American people?


People are feeling pain and a building fear, even if the media and Biden's administration are clueless about it. This is an important point if you go out there and actually listen to people. Even those well-off enough to avoid the pain so far recognize the frustration and feel the fear. They see that even if it hasn't hit them yet, it won't be long.
It doesn't matter how many explainers you put out there if they're afraid. That's enough.

Biden has instead embraced the same dismissive attitude that elites often cast toward voters. Otherwise, he would have known better than to let his cabinet go out there and tell people to buy an electric car because gas prices are too high. Othwerwise, he wouldn't be telling people there is no recession when they are clearly feeling or fearing its effects on them.

It's the uncertainty, stupid | Washington Examiner

[tomder55]

2001 there was the 9-11 attack . Before that there was a Y2K scare and the dot com bubble burst

That year there were 2 qtr of negative growth . By year end there was a 1% economic growth .It only lasted 2 qtr .The unemployment rate was less than 6 % But still that period of time when the economy was in decline is listed as a recession.
The recession was short lived because President Bush acted decisively getting Congress to reduce taxes .

[jlisenbe]

[jlisenbe]

I wonder if there is any possibility of Mr. Biden announcing that we actually are not in a period of high inflation? That sure would make our lives a lot easier to find out that prices are actually NOT going up.

[tomder55]

Add to the Orwellian lingo Sen Joe Manchin's addition . He is swearing that his almost $1 trillion cave in to the Schmuchster is actually deficit reduction AND inflation reduction. He says this is so because of the new taxes he swore he would oppose . Add another definition to the Orwellian dictionary. Raising taxes is now called closing loopholes .

It only affects corporations so aint no biggie ;even though it should be well understood that corporations always add new expenses into the price of the product they sell. It is better to look at Business more as tax collectors than tax payers .

Putting it in practical terms . Let's say the new bill were to remove various individual or family tax credits .That would be a tax increase .......right ?

Wrong ;in the new Orwellian world that is only closing loop holes .

Manchin says that corporations used to pay taxes in the 20% range (I don't know if that is true or not) . Then trump came along and corporations only were paying around 12% . So Manchin says that the minimum corporate tax rate of 15% aint no biggie because of the rate they used to pay. The increase is not an increase because it is less than they used to pay.

There are 2 things the government can do to end run away inflation. The first is to stop printing monopoly money .The 2nd way is to stop run away government spending . The almost $1 trillion in new spending far from addresses this problem .

So of course the bill is called “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.”

Even Lindsey Graham gets it (and he doesn't get much)

Lindsey Graham on Twitter: "After five TV appearances this Sunday by Senator Manchin, it is clear to me that he doesn’t understand how the Manchin-Schumer proposal works. To suggest that tax increases and new government spending in the name of climate change won’t add to inflation is, at best, misguided." / Twitter

Lindsey Graham on Twitter: "The costs associated with the Democrats’ tax and spending proposal will assuredly be passed on to the consumer. This bill worsens economic growth, throws gas on the inflation fire, and is truly the most ill-conceived idea at the most inappropriate time." / Twitter

[tomder55]

Manchin along with Senator Krysten Sinema stood strong on opposing the Dem's filibuster ploy. Let's hope that she also stands firm against this disastrous reconciliation bill . In a 50-50 Senate with Kam the Sham being the tie breaker vote . She is the only Dem hold out I see from this being passed (and hope that the RINOs anti-Trump /MAGA Repubs hold firm and vote to oppose ). I have real doubts about Sinema . She believes in the climate change agenda

[jlisenbe]

So of course the bill is called “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.”

Only a compliant press, allied to the liberal dem cause, allows this to continue. Since most Americans now seem to be in the non-thinking category and willing to accept practically any new and insane idea, then many will accept this as well.

[tomder55]

the redefinitions continues now inflation is according to SQUAD member

Rep. Pramila Jayapal a "theoretical word that economists use."

Dem Rep. Jayapal: Inflation Is A "Theoretical Word That Economists Use" | Video | RealClearPolitics

[jlisenbe]

Very reassuring knowing that we have experts like her in the Congress.

[tomder55]

[jlisenbe]

As far as I have been able to see, the idea that there will be 87,000 new IRS auditors is not true. It seems to have come from a statement a number of months ago that the IRS would hire 87K employees over the next ten years, most of them to replace retiring employees. So it seems clear that the number of auditors will rise, but by not nearly that much. Still, it's alarming.

[tomder55]

why would they need such additional funding just to replace attrition ?

[jlisenbe]

Which is a really good question. The whole thing is shrouded in fog which is, I'm sure, exactly what they intended. But that they intend to hire 87K new auditors in the next twelve months does not seem to be the case.

[tomder55]

the plan calls for a 10 year expansion of staffing . The link to the plan below. In the report in a chart called return on investment ; the IRS shows that part of the “return on investment” for America would be that by 2031 the IRS could increase the size of its workforce by 86,852 full-time employees.

The-American-Families-Plan-Tax-Compliance-Agenda.pdf (treasury.gov)


“Because the expansion in the IRS’s budget is phased in over a 10-year horizon, each year the IRS’s workforce should grow by no more than a manageable 15%.”

Maybe I am not a math wiz . But 15% increase over 10 years is 150 % increase NO? That sounds like more than replacing retirees

But the American people don't like that so much . So the spin Meister's are hard at work . They came up with the attrition angle .

No, Biden is Not Hiring 87,000 New IRS Agents | Time