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    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 5,019, Reputation: 157
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    #41

    Jul 1, 2021, 04:11 AM
    People, businesses, and communities were destroyed because some public health “experts” were certain this was needed to save lives. They saved no lives but made people miserable and poorer in return for nothing.
    Sad. Many thousands of small businesses are shut down never to reopen.
    Athos's Avatar
    Athos Posts: 1,108, Reputation: 55
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    #42

    Jul 1, 2021, 04:48 AM
    From the link:

    At the U.S. state-level, excess mortality increases in the immediate weeks following SIP introduction and then trends below zero following 20 weeks of SIP implementation.
    Then;

    We also failed to observe differences in excess death trends before and after the implementation of SIP policies based on pre-SIP COVID-19 death rates.
    So which is it?

    In the first case, excess mortality is to be expected after signs of the virus spreading cause a lockdown - here called a "SIP" - shelter-in-place. An odd use of a term usually reserved for other phenomena. Why not use the common term "lockdown"?

    People, businesses, and communities were destroyed because some public health “experts” were certain this was needed to save lives.
    The areas that followed the expert's advice were and are showing a much lower infection rate than areas that didn't.

    They saved no lives but made people miserable and poorer in return for nothing.
    They significantly reduced the numbers getting Covid-19 leading to hospitalization and death. They did this by wearing masks, social distancing, and vaccination. The lockdowns were to keep people from gathering in groups to prevent/slow down infection.
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 346
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    #43

    Jul 1, 2021, 05:22 AM
    In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented social distancing and SIP policies. These policies are designed to slow COVID-19 transmission by limiting physical interaction. While early U.S. and international evidence suggests that these policies did slow COVID-19 transmission (Aleman et al. 2020; Courtemanche et al. 2020), the longer-run and more comprehensive effects of these policies are not fully understood (Berry et al. 2021). We used data from 43 countries and all U.S. states and find the introduction of SIP policies did not lead to reductions in excess deaths. This study is not without limitations. First, how COVID-19 deaths are defined is not standard across countries (Beaney et al. 2020). For this reason, we rely on total mortality, instead of cause-specific mortality. However, total mortality can also suffer from measurement error. For example, there could be a lag in registering deaths and upward revision of mortality data is common in many countries. It is also possible that deaths are simply undercounted especially in developing countries or rural areas due to lack of resources. Second, enforcement and implementation of SIP policies could vary across countries or U.S. states and our main analysis does not implement heterogenous treatment effects—although the country by country and state by state event studies suggest that the findings were qualitatively similar other than for a few island countries and Hawaii. For this reason, we emphasize that our results should be interpreted using an intent-to-treat framework. We do not estimate the effect of “ideal” SIP policies or of improved compliance with SIP policies, but rather evaluate the “real world” impact of SIP 16policies that were implemented. Third, it is possible that SIP policies were implemented with other policies related to the pandemic and we cannot completely isolate the causal effects of SIP policies. Finally, the counterfactual trajectory of the pandemic in the absence of SIP policies is difficult to estimate and might vary across countries and states, which could bias estimates.However, we do not find differences in the impact of SIP policies based on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic when policies were implemented. Nonetheless, the implementation of SIP policies does not appear to have met the aim of reducing excess mortality. There are several potential explanations for this finding. First, it is possible that SIP policies do not slow COVID-19 transmission. As discussed earlier, prior studies find only a modest effect of SIP policies on mobility. A potential reason for the modest impact on mobility may be that individuals change behavior to avoid COVID-19 risk even in the absence of SIP policies. It is also unclear whether modest reductions in mobility could slow the spread of an airborne pathogen. Second, it is possible that SIP policies increased deaths of despair due to economic and social isolation effects of SIP policies. Recent estimates in the U.S between March and August 2020 show that drug overdoses, homicides, and unintentional injuries increased in 2020, while suicides declined (Faust et al. 2021). Third, existing studies suggest that SIP policies led to a reduction in non-COVID-19 health care, which might have contributed to an increase in non-COVID-19 deaths (Cantor et al. 2020; Ziedan, Simon, and Wing 2020). For example, one study in the United Kingdom predicts that there will be approximately an additional 3,000 deaths within five years due to a delay in diagnostics because of the COVID-19 pandemic (Maringe et al. 2020). In light of this evidence, continued reliance on SIP policies to slow COVID-19 transmission may not be optimal. Instead, the best policy response may be pharmaceutical interventions in the 17form of vaccinations and therapeutics when they become available. Early evidence suggests that initial vaccination efforts have led to large reductions in COVID-19 incidence (Christie 2021; X. Chen et al. 2021; Haas et al. 2021). Policy efforts to promote vaccination are thus likely to have large positive impacts.

    w28930.pdf (nber.org)
    paraclete's Avatar
    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #44

    Jul 1, 2021, 05:33 AM
    I agree that shutdown policies have destroyed businesses. In my country, infection rates have been incredibly low despite no vaccines for twelve months, so maybe shutdown did something, but I think border closures have done more to stop the spread since most cases have been travellers
    Athos's Avatar
    Athos Posts: 1,108, Reputation: 55
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    #45

    Jul 1, 2021, 07:04 AM
    Quote Originally Posted by tomder55 View Post
    In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented social distancing and SIP policies. These policies are designed to slow COVID-19 transmission by limiting physical interaction. While early U.S. and international evidence suggests that these policies did slow COVID-19 transmission (Aleman et al. 2020; Courtemanche et al. 2020), the longer-run and more comprehensive effects of these policies are not fully understood (Berry et al. 2021). We used data from 43 countries and all U.S. states and find the introduction of SIP policies did not lead to reductions in excess deaths. This study is not without limitations. First, how COVID-19 deaths are defined is not standard across countries (Beaney et al. 2020). For this reason, we rely on total mortality, instead of cause-specific mortality. However, total mortality can also suffer from measurement error. For example, there could be a lag in registering deaths and upward revision of mortality data is common in many countries. It is also possible that deaths are simply undercounted especially in developing countries or rural areas due to lack of resources. Second, enforcement and implementation of SIP policies could vary across countries or U.S. states and our main analysis does not implement heterogenous treatment effects—although the country by country and state by state event studies suggest that the findings were qualitatively similar other than for a few island countries and Hawaii. For this reason, we emphasize that our results should be interpreted using an intent-to-treat framework. We do not estimate the effect of “ideal” SIP policies or of improved compliance with SIP policies, but rather evaluate the “real world” impact of SIP 16policies that were implemented. Third, it is possible that SIP policies were implemented with other policies related to the pandemic and we cannot completely isolate the causal effects of SIP policies. Finally, the counterfactual trajectory of the pandemic in the absence of SIP policies is difficult to estimate and might vary across countries and states, which could bias estimates.However, we do not find differences in the impact of SIP policies based on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic when policies were implemented. Nonetheless, the implementation of SIP policies does not appear to have met the aim of reducing excess mortality. There are several potential explanations for this finding. First, it is possible that SIP policies do not slow COVID-19 transmission. As discussed earlier, prior studies find only a modest effect of SIP policies on mobility. A potential reason for the modest impact on mobility may be that individuals change behavior to avoid COVID-19 risk even in the absence of SIP policies. It is also unclear whether modest reductions in mobility could slow the spread of an airborne pathogen. Second, it is possible that SIP policies increased deaths of despair due to economic and social isolation effects of SIP policies. Recent estimates in the U.S between March and August 2020 show that drug overdoses, homicides, and unintentional injuries increased in 2020, while suicides declined (Faust et al. 2021). Third, existing studies suggest that SIP policies led to a reduction in non-COVID-19 health care, which might have contributed to an increase in non-COVID-19 deaths (Cantor et al. 2020; Ziedan, Simon, and Wing 2020). For example, one study in the United Kingdom predicts that there will be approximately an additional 3,000 deaths within five years due to a delay in diagnostics because of the COVID-19 pandemic (Maringe et al. 2020). In light of this evidence, continued reliance on SIP policies to slow COVID-19 transmission may not be optimal. Instead, the best policy response may be pharmaceutical interventions in the 17form of vaccinations and therapeutics when they become available. Early evidence suggests that initial vaccination efforts have led to large reductions in COVID-19 incidence (Christie 2021; X. Chen et al. 2021; Haas et al. 2021). Policy efforts to promote vaccination are thus likely to have large positive impacts.

    w28930.pdf (nber.org)

    The facts on the ground dispute this entire study. It is a fact that masks, social distancing and lockdowns are effective.
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 5,019, Reputation: 157
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    #46

    Jul 1, 2021, 08:38 AM
    Yes, Tom. How dare you introduce a study that merely used, "data from 43 countries and all U.S. states". Did they use all of those "facts on the ground" that are evidently so important?
    Athos's Avatar
    Athos Posts: 1,108, Reputation: 55
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    #47

    Jul 1, 2021, 09:32 AM
    Quote Originally Posted by jlisenbe View Post
    Yes, Tom. How dare you introduce a study that merely used, "data from 43 countries and all U.S. states". Did they use all of those "facts on the ground" that are evidently so important?
    Up yours, jack - why don't you mind your own business and stop stalking me?
    Wondergirl's Avatar
    Wondergirl Posts: 39,354, Reputation: 5431
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    #48

    Jul 1, 2021, 09:50 AM
    Quote Originally Posted by Athos View Post
    The facts on the ground dispute this entire study. It is a fact that masks, social distancing and lockdowns are effective.
    Agreed. We must read the "fine print" in this report.
    1. While early U.S. and international evidence suggests that these policies did slow COVID-19 transmission (Aleman et al. 2020; Courtemanche et al. 2020), the longer-run and more comprehensive effects of these policies are not fully understood (Berry et al. 2021)

    2. This study is not without limitations. First, how COVID-19 deaths are defined is not standard across countries (Beaney et al. 2020). For this reason, we rely on total mortality, instead of cause-specific mortality.

    3. It is also possible that deaths are simply undercounted especially in developing countries or rural areas due to lack of resources.

    4. ...enforcement and implementation of SIP policies could vary across countries or U.S. states and our main analysis does not implement heterogenous treatment effects....

    5. ...we cannot completely isolate the causal effects of SIP policies.

    And so on....
    Athos's Avatar
    Athos Posts: 1,108, Reputation: 55
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    #49

    Jul 1, 2021, 10:15 AM
    from Athos
    The facts on the ground dispute this entire study. It is a fact that masks, social distancing and lockdowns are effective.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wondergirl View Post
    Agreed. We must read the "fine print" in this report.
    1. While early U.S. and international evidence suggests that these policies did slow COVID-19 transmission (Aleman et al. 2020; Courtemanche et al. 2020), the longer-run and more comprehensive effects of these policies are not fully understood (Berry et al. 2021)

    2. This study is not without limitations. First, how COVID-19 deaths are defined is not standard across countries (Beaney et al. 2020). For this reason, we rely on total mortality, instead of cause-specific mortality.

    3. It is also possible that deaths are simply undercounted especially in developing countries or rural areas due to lack of resources.

    4. ...enforcement and implementation of SIP policies could vary across countries or U.S. states and our main analysis does not implement heterogenous treatment effects....

    5. ...we cannot completely isolate the causal effects of SIP policies.

    And so on....

    Nice to have someone who can read and analyze. Instead of a knee-jerk reaction from someone who can't.
    Wondergirl's Avatar
    Wondergirl Posts: 39,354, Reputation: 5431
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    #50

    Jul 1, 2021, 10:32 AM
    Quote Originally Posted by Athos View Post
    Nice to have someone who can read and analyze. Instead of a knee-jerk reaction from someone who can't.
    I was just reading the health column in one of our morning newspapers. Because the Delta variant has now appeared in all 50 US states -- and we don't know its effect, even fully vaccinated people are encouraged to wear masks and social distance when outside their homes.
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 5,019, Reputation: 157
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    #51

    Jul 1, 2021, 10:42 AM
    Up yours, jack - why don't you mind your own business and stop stalking me?
    And yet another well-reasoned, rational response.

    Poor Athos. Thankfully (for you), WG seems to adore you and would never raise her voice about your crude response.

    Nice to have someone who can read and analyze
    Yeah. Shame it wasn't you. At any rate, WG managed to just breeze by this.

    " In light of this evidence, continued reliance on SIP policies to slow COVID-19 transmission may not be optimal. Instead, the best policy response may be pharmaceutical interventions in the 17form of vaccinations and therapeutics when they become available. Early evidence suggests that initial vaccination efforts have led to large reductions in COVID-19 incidence (Christie 2021; X. Chen et al. 2021; Haas et al. 2021). Policy efforts to promote vaccination are thus likely to have large positive impacts."
    Wondergirl's Avatar
    Wondergirl Posts: 39,354, Reputation: 5431
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    #52

    Jul 1, 2021, 11:06 AM
    Quote Originally Posted by jlisenbe View Post
    At any rate, WG managed to just breeze by this.
    And you breezed by this that I said in that same post:

    "[Because of the Delta variant] even fully vaccinated people are encouraged to wear masks and social distance when outside their homes."
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 5,019, Reputation: 157
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    #53

    Jul 1, 2021, 11:21 AM
    What makes you think I "breezed" by it? I didn't comment on it since it was not a part of the article in question, but I did see it. I actually have no problem with masks. I'll wear one when I'm told to. I can even social distance if need be. The point of the article was lockdowns, identified in the article as shelter in place (SIP).

    Now be honest. Don't you think Athos's response to me was really crude? Stand up and be a (wo)man. Wasn't it clearly a crude comment??
    paraclete's Avatar
    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #54

    Jul 1, 2021, 03:55 PM
    Yes but I can understand why you attract such a response
    talaniman's Avatar
    talaniman Posts: 54,327, Reputation: 10855
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    #55

    Jul 1, 2021, 04:11 PM
    Quote Originally Posted by paraclete View Post
    Yes but I can understand why you attract such a response
    Me too. It's been well reported that some areas and regions are less vaccinated than others and that just makes the potential for a spike in infections and transmissions more likely.
    Athos's Avatar
    Athos Posts: 1,108, Reputation: 55
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    #56

    Jul 1, 2021, 04:28 PM
    Quote Originally Posted by jlisenbe View Post
    And yet another well-reasoned, rational response.

    Poor Athos.
    Screw you, you moron.

    Quote Originally Posted by jlisenbe View Post
    Now be honest. Don't you think Athos's response to me was really crude? Stand up and be a (wo)man. Wasn't it clearly a crude comment??
    Stick around, I'll show you crude. Arse-hole.

    Quote Originally Posted by paraclete View Post
    Yes but I can understand why you attract such a response (referring to idiot boy Jl-sh*t-head)
    It's unanimous.
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 346
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    #57

    Jul 1, 2021, 04:37 PM
    encouraged to wear masks and social distance when outside their homes.
    a far cry from a mandated lockdown.
    Wondergirl's Avatar
    Wondergirl Posts: 39,354, Reputation: 5431
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    #58

    Jul 1, 2021, 05:08 PM
    Quote Originally Posted by talaniman View Post
    Me too. It's been well reported that some areas and regions are less vaccinated than others and that just makes the potential for a spike in infections and transmissions more likely.
    And the Delta variant is largely an unknown.
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 5,019, Reputation: 157
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    #59

    Jul 1, 2021, 06:37 PM
    Screw you, you moron.
    Oh calm down, Athos. Not good to get the ole blood pressure up so high. You'll come up with some answers sooner or later.
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 5,019, Reputation: 157
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    #60

    Jul 1, 2021, 07:06 PM
    encouraged to wear masks and social distance when outside their homes.


    a far cry from a mandated lockdown.
    Exactly. One is relatively painless while the whole SIP thing is economically devastating.

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