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    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 346
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    #1

    Apr 15, 2021, 05:38 AM
    Is Quid trying to destroy the 'Quad ' alliance ?
    To refresh your memory ;the Quad is US India Australia and Japan in alliance to check the aggressive predatory expansion of the Chinese.

    The US has done what we call Freedom of Navigation exercises by sailing ships of the fleet through sea areas that China illegally claim .

    But on April 7 , the USS John Paul Jones sailed through India's territorial waters off of the Lakshadweep Islands. They are not in dispute, unlike the waters China claims by seizing coral reefs off the coast of Philippines .They are right off of India's coast .

    But the JPJ sailed them anyway without requesting or being granted permission from India . The JPJ declared the right freedom of navigation . The provocative statement went on to say “prior consent for military exercises or manoeuvres in its exclusive economic zone or continental shelf”, was “inconsistent with international law”.

    The Navy stated that the Freedom of Navigation Operation “upheld the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea recognized in international law by challenging India’s excessive maritime claims”. The irresponsible exercise by US Navy is in complete contrast with the rapid growth in India-US ties in defense and security since 2016.The US’s total defense trade with India has increased to over $20 billion.

    The two countries have been participating in regular joint multilateral military exercises . Just 3 weeks prior the Quad met and all four members reaffirmed their strategic commitment .US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin paid a three day visit to India March 19 He called India a “great partner” and reaffirmed the importance which the USA attaches to India in promoting peace and stability in the region.

    Given that ,the exercise seems very bizarre and ill timed at best. At worse one could speculate that Quid is intentionally trying to damage the relationship.
    paraclete's Avatar
    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #2

    Apr 15, 2021, 06:35 PM
    The Quad isn't really an alliance, really just a discussion group. They have agreed to some join action, hardly earth shattering and different governments apply different weights to such things. Biden is unlikely to be so giddy in bringing pressure to bear on China despite the rhetoric, he will have to be very selective which battles he fights
    talaniman's Avatar
    talaniman Posts: 54,327, Reputation: 10855
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    #3

    Apr 15, 2021, 06:54 PM
    There is undoubtedly a lot we don't know, like maybe India isn't working in just our interest but their own with a few of our main "competitors".
    paraclete's Avatar
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    #4

    Apr 15, 2021, 08:35 PM
    Quote Originally Posted by talaniman View Post
    There is undoubtedly a lot we don't know, like maybe India isn't working in just our interest but their own with a few of our main "competitors".
    I would say that is correct. Now you are pulling out of Afghanistan, India has lost interest and is more directly trying to influence you because you oppose China. You didn't oppose their enemy, Pakistan, but now your weight has shifted in the region. Not all the Quad are giddy at the idea of an alliance against China, I think you will see Australia take a wait and see stance.

    India is a vast emerging economy and they would benefit if you were to migrate your manufacturing away from China
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    #5

    Apr 16, 2021, 12:37 AM
    Quid would be a fool to do anything to undermine an emerging alliance /security arrangement whatever name you call it especially between the worlds oldest democracy and the worlds most populous democracy . All 4 nations of the Quad have a compelling security interest to check China's growing expansionist aggression. More nations in the region should sign on .

    Afghanistan ... India and it's interests with tribes in what used to be called the Northern alliance is the only good faith nation that could step in to check the total Taliban takeover . As you know ,the Taliban is an ISI construct . Pakistan needs Afghanistan strategic space in it's conflict with India . The US policy of supporting Pakistan instead of India was bone headed .

    China yes Quid has problems with putting pressure on China because of the business interests his crime family would lose .
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    talaniman Posts: 54,327, Reputation: 10855
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    #6

    Apr 16, 2021, 02:18 AM
    India's Top Trading Partners 2019 (worldstopexports.com) India balances many relationships as does the US, but this may be the source of new tensions between the counties Tom.

    The paradox of US-India relations (msn.com)

    Yet, despite these many indicators of a burgeoning defense relationship between two countries that as late as the 1980s had maintained standoffish relations for decades, the Austin visit also involved a throwback to those earlier times. Austin voiced his unhappiness with India's interest in purchasing the Russian S-400 air defense system - the same system that is at the center of a dispute between the United States and Turkey. Ankara has purchased the S-400 and that has resulted in U.S. cancellation of Turkish participation in the American F-35 fighter program.
    India's military, especially the army and air force, has maintained longstanding and close ties to Russia (and previously the Soviet Union). India seems unwilling to jettison those ties simply because Austin told his hosts that "we ... urge our allies and partners to move away from Russian equipment." An Indian S-400 purchase, therefore, is not at all out of the question.
    I guess you could say it's complicated.
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    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #7

    Apr 16, 2021, 04:22 PM
    Quote Originally Posted by talaniman View Post


    I guess you could say it's complicated.
    a valid synopsis
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    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 346
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    #8

    Apr 16, 2021, 04:52 PM
    that is silly .military relations need to be nurtured . India cannot be expected to drop it's past commitments on a dime. What do you do with the fact that their military has been trained for decades with Russian equipment ? More Quid idiocy risking a new security agreement in a critical part of the world . If what you say is true ;whoever made that call is a schmuck .

    As for Turkey and the F35 ..... the plane is a pig and Turkey is the exception to what I wrote above . Turkey is trying to be an Islamic hegemon . They have done nothing but obstruct efforts to check Jihadistan .
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    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #9

    Apr 16, 2021, 06:09 PM
    Quote Originally Posted by tomder55 View Post

    As for Turkey and the F35 ..... the plane is a pig and Turkey is the exception to what I wrote above . Turkey is trying to be an Islamic hegemon . They have done nothing but obstruct efforts to check Jihadistan .

    Turkey Has a thousand years of history to live up to, You forget it was an Islamic empire, probably the only successful one. Their point of view is it all works for them, they can sit back, do the minimum and watch their neighbours, the former empire disintegrate, ripe for the taking. We also need to be minefull that they are the traditional enemy of the Russians, so a useful tool
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    talaniman Posts: 54,327, Reputation: 10855
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    #10

    Apr 17, 2021, 03:01 PM
    I think they are still talking about it as they act in their own interests. Like I say it's complicated....verily so. Humans have a long history of complicated relationships with each other and a lot of baggage from the past to carry around. You have to admit that stuff build up over centuries and even more recent events and encounters add to the mix.

    Think chess not checkers. Competitors not enemies.
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    #11

    Apr 20, 2021, 08:20 PM
    as a chess player, I see Turkey as a rook, they have knocked off a few pawns in Syria and Armenia but they are no friend of Iran so they anchor the European alliance
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    #12

    Apr 21, 2021, 07:39 AM
    The Turks are a fascist dictatorship. Sad for a NATO member.
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    #13

    Apr 21, 2021, 10:21 AM
    I see Turkey as a rook,
    1960s logic . They were a pawn in the Cold War . Kennedy used basing nukes in Turkey as a negotiation tool during the Cuban missile crisis . Strategically they would be of significance to NATO if they were to deny Russia access to the Mediterranean Sea .

    Otherwise the only thing that they have in common with NATO countries is that technically they are in Europe .

    Erdogan has visions of a return to Ottoman glory . That is not likely . He is a Pan-Islamist as well as a Neo Ottoman nationalist . That is a dangerous combo . But even more disturbing is his drift from any pretense of Turkey's Euro identity . He is espousing a pro-China ;"Asia Anew " policy . His reckless adventurism has Turkey enmeshed in the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Mediterranean and throughout Western Europe . He extorts western Europe with the threat of releasing refugees on the continent . He is instrumental in the exporting of jihadist fighters to Syria and Libya . This is not the actions of a responsible nation and certainly not the actions of an alleged ally in NATO .
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    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #14

    Apr 21, 2021, 04:37 PM
    So remove then from NATO and let Russia take over the ME. Rooks work best in concert with other pieces
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    talaniman Posts: 54,327, Reputation: 10855
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    #15

    Apr 22, 2021, 11:48 AM
    Turkey has little influence over Russia or Syria for that matter. They need oil and will deal with anyone on that level.
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    #16

    Apr 22, 2021, 02:22 PM
    Turkey has little influence over Russia
    The recent war between Azerbaijan and Russian supported Armenia was an Azerbaijan victory primarily because Turkish military assistance .

    Putin is actually thrilled however with Turkey's pan -Ottoman ambitions and the strain it puts on NATO. Turkey has been taking steps to develop ties with Russia at both the bilateral and regional levels; and Moscow has sought to reciprocate based on its own interests. Don't forget ;Putin offered Russian assistance when put down a coup attempt .

    or Syria for that matter.
    Seriously ? From the Kurd issue in Syria ; to the Syrian refugee crisis all has Turkey's fingerprints on it .
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    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #17

    Apr 22, 2021, 04:25 PM
    Quote Originally Posted by tomder55 View Post
    The recent war between Azerbaijan and Russian supported Armenia was an Azerbaijan victory primarily because Turkish military assistance .

    Putin is actually thrilled however with Turkey's pan -Ottoman ambitions and the strain it puts on NATO. Turkey has been taking steps to develop ties with Russia at both the bilateral and regional levels; and Moscow has sought to reciprocate based on its own interests. Don't forget ;Putin offered Russian assistance when put down a coup attempt .



    Seriously ? From the Kurd issue in Syria ; to the Syrian refugee crisis all has Turkey's fingerprints on it .
    The Kurd issue anywhere has Turkey's fingerprints all over it, the Turks have a long history of genocide. Turkey borders Russia, only Georgia stands in the path, they would be fools not to seek relations with them, they are, however, a traditional enemy, so the Turks would be wary of them. The refugee crisis in Europe had Turkey's fingerprints all over it, putting NATO under pressure and the EU in particular. Turkey wants into the EU, but their record of genocide keeps them out. The Russians have no such qualms
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    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 346
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    #18

    Apr 23, 2021, 05:07 AM
    only Georgia stands in the path
    and you saw Turkey look the other way when Russia invaded Georgia .
    , they are, however, a traditional enemy, so the Turks would be wary of them
    Not true since Erdogan . Russia and Turkey now have a gas pipeline that serves Russian interest in bypassing Ukraine . The Russians have for years had unimpeded access to the Mediterranean through the Bosporus Straits . Russia is Turkey's most important trading partner .

    There was one blip in the improved relationship . That occurred when Turkey downed a Russian jet in Syria. Relation over that incident have been repaired . 3 times in the last year ,during the middle of the pandemic , Putin and Erdogan had face to face meetings.
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    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #19

    Apr 23, 2021, 05:32 AM
    so another domino falls,
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    talaniman Posts: 54,327, Reputation: 10855
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    #20

    Apr 23, 2021, 09:00 PM
    Don't trust either of them Tom, but we do have nukes in Turkey. Why does the U.S. have nuclear weapons in Turkey at all? (slate.com)

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