That was one of Clueless Joe's gaffes . Trump blames the latest dismal jobs report on the Jerome Powell (he can't blame the Bureau of Labor Statistics since he already fired and replaced the boss with a lackey....Trump said previous numbers were rigged ) . But what he really needs is to reevaluate the effect of his tariffs on the labor market.

The jobs report is his gaffe. 22,000 jobs were added last month and the previous last 2 reports were revised down by a total of 21,000 . Almost all the new jobs are in the government supported service industries like health care . Manufacturing down 12,000; wholesale trade down 11,700. Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000.

Why ? The obvious reason is that manufacturers anticipate a decline in demand due to the price increases they will either absorb or pass on the the consumers .

Tariffs Were Supposed to Revive US Manufacturing. So Far, They’re Having the Opposite Effect (https://www.investopedia.com/tariffs-were-supposed-to-revive-u-s-manufacturing-so-far-they-re-having-the-opposite-effect-11802173)

Still Trump is going full speed ahead .He is asking SCOTUS to reverse a ruling that held his declaration of emergency for justifying his broad tariffs as unconstitutional . I hope the originalists on the court see that indeed they are .

He is also wrong about the interest rates . Now is a terrible time to loosen the money supply. All it will really do is add fuel to the markets that already resemble to 2008 bubble due to tulip like speculation in tech . Yes new job creation has slowed . But it has not impacted the unemployment rate.

The bigger danger is inflation rates rising when Trump's tariffs are fully implemented . Easy money will contribute to that inflation.

so now what ? BLS did another revision of the Clueless Joe's/Trump's jobs report from April 2024 - March 2025 . They were close to a million jobs off . (911,000)
This is what the government calls reliable reporting .
Which leads to the obvious observation ; The latest report had a lame 22,000 jobs created . Given that most revisions are revisions down ;it is likely that we were in a negative job growth situation.

Trump claims any numbers he doesn't like is rigged . That is silly but if he said the numbers are flawed he'd be closer to the truth. BLS relies on input from employers .If they are not responding like they had in the past then the data is unreliable .
Responses have been declining for years and dipped after the pandemic.
CPS Response Rates : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/cps/methods/response_rates.htm#:~:text=Declining%20response%20 rates%20are%20a,rates%20accelerated%20during%20the %20pandemic.)


Be that as it may ;sooner or later Trump will not get away with blaming Biden or Jerome Powell or BLS for the poor economics performance . He owns the economy . Despite what I think is a good performance on the so called 80:20 issues . Elections are won and lost on the economy .


He made it worse for himself during the election by over promising results. Rember all those things that would happen on day 1 ? One of them was prices would start dropping on day one . The inflation rate has gone down .But as I have noted before ;the only way prices would drop across the board would be if we were in a recession and like in the Reagan era when the Fed left interest rates high and we had a strong dollar (the 1981-82 recession .... there was a lot of pain before these results ) .

Today we are in a slow growth economy that has slowed the inflation rate .But Trump bitterly complains about it and demands that the Fed easy rates ;which they probably will given the pressure they are under . Easing rates will add inflationary pressure.

A bell weather has been special elections . Dems have been doing very well in special elections whittling away at the GOP very narrow majority .

Democrat wins Virginia special election seen as Trump referendum | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrat-walkinshaw-wins-special-congressional-election-where-trump-loomed-large)

Democrats Overperform in Florida as They Cruise to Victory in Two Elections - Newsweek (https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-special-elections-florida-2123662)

Democrats won more special elections last night (https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-won-more-special-elections)

I would like to see Trump retain his majority throughout his term . But that is looking less likely . He will resort to more freebees (I have never accused him of being fiscally conservative ) Look for gimmicks like so called tariff rebates to add more monopoly bucks to the debt.
Are We Getting a $600 Tariff Stimulus Check in 2025? (https://www.cnbc.com/select/tariff-rebate-checks-2025/)

I don't quite get the enthusiasm over a possible Fed rate cut . Some are saying a half point reduction. The truth is that they will be lucky with a quarter point given the recent price numbers . Inflation is far from tamed,( 3.1% over the last 12 months against the 2% Fed target)

Much like in the early 80s ;inflation poses a greater threat to most Americans than a recession.

What a joke ! Jerome Powell who never questioned the phony job numbers that came out during Clueless Joe's reign now says that the jobs numbers coming out of the Trump WH are fake.

He said this when he announced the latest interest cuts yesterday . He hinted that may be the end of the rate cutting .


“We think there is an overstatement in these numbers by 60,000 (jobs per month,” Powell said in a press conference following the Fed rate-setting committee’s latest policy meeting.
That would turn the April to September gains into losses at about 20,000 jobs per month.
But that doesn’t mean official jobs data to this point is wrong, Powell was quick to note.
“It’s very difficult to estimate job growth in real-time,” he said.


Live updates: The Fed just cut interest rates for the third-straight time | CNN Business (https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-12-10-2025)

Tariffs are supposed to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US ; Right ?

The latest jobs report says something else.

In January BLS reported 12,755,000 workers in all manufacturing industries. The number rose by a few thousand through April, but then began to fall each month and in November hit 12,697,000. That’s a net loss of 58,000 jobs, including 19,000 in the last three months.

Where Are Those Manufacturing Jobs? - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jobs-report-bls-manufacturing-tariffs-economy-donald-trump-f1f6d219?mod=opinion_lead_pos2)

Next to government job losses due to DOGE cuts;and office staff due to AI ; manufacturing was the largest negative job loss.

A Bleak Jobs Report - by Zack Fritz - Sage Economics (https://www.sageecon.com/p/a-bleak-jobs-report)

The only hopeful sign is in construction.

The optimist will say that the manufacturing job losses are a one time tariff shock (manufacturing jobs have declined every month since "Liberation Day".)

But some of the critical raw materials needed in the industry are the targets of some of Trump's biggest tariffs.

Another example. Retaliation to Trump's tariffs is hitting American companies between the eyes . Already discussed elsewhere that Trump is promising taxpayer $ to soy farmers who lost a huge chunk of their business due to the tariffs.

Another recent example is American iconic bourbon brewer Jim Beam which shut down it's production for a year .


Recent tariffs and trade disruptions have made U.S.-produced whiskey more expensive and less competitive in overseas markets.




As a result, many whiskey producers are grappling with an oversupply of product, in addition to slowing sales growth. Jim Beam’s announcement reflects not just the local implications of these trends, but broader market conditions as well.

One Of America's Most Legendary Bourbon Distilleries Is Halting Production (https://www.southernliving.com/jim-beam-distillery-halts-whiskey-production-11874912)

When push comes to shove ;Candians will drink Royal Crown over American whiskey

"Another recent example is American iconic bourbon brewer Jim Beam which shut down it's production for a year." That part is not true. It has shut down production in one of its distilleries but not all of them. But yes, it is due to uncertain demand.

Another special election won by Dems It wasn't close


Democrat Taylor Rehmet wins Texas Senate runoff (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5716988-democrats-score-upset-texas/)

Trump loves to bash Jerome Powell and the Feds . He's got a new reason . Last week economists from the NY Fed analyzed the effect of Trump's tariffs and concluded that 90% of the costs were borne by the consumers.
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? - Liberty Street Economics (https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025-u-s-tariffs/)

Trump is pushing back even though he has hinted in the last year that if this was not the intention ;it was a probable effect of the tariffs that he was aware of .It was a sacrifice we would have to bare to rebalance trade.

But when called out on the facts ,Trump's director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett said that the report was
"the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve System”

Hassett says authors of New York Fed tariff study should be disciplined: 'Worst paper I've ever seen' (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/18/hassett-says-authors-of-new-york-fed-tariff-study-should-be-disciplined-worst-paper-ive-ever-seen.html)

This is what has been accomplished . Goods are still being imported . Consumers are paying more for them ;and the trade deficit is growing while US manufacturing is weakening and the GDP barely grew at all ;well short of estimates.

In 2025, Trade Deficit in Goods Reached Record High - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/19/business/economy/imports-tariffs-trade-deficit.html#:~:text=The%20total%20trade%20deficit %2C%20including,imports%20rose%20and%20exports%20f ell.)

US trade deficit surged in December, ending 2025 nearly identical to 2024 after year of erratic Trump tariff policy (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-trade-deficit-surged-in-december-ending-2025-nearly-identical-to-2024-after-year-of-erratic-trump-tariff-policy-145140825.html)

The economy is doing as well as it has because of deregulation and tax reform ;and the promise of AI . The tariffs have been a drag on what may have been a robust 2025.
The attacks on the Fed is Trump's fall back position. Jerome Powell is Trump's pinata .

And it doesn't help that SCOTUS is taking it's sweet time in making their tariff ruling. I suspect that they do not want to deliver the bad news to Trump . The more they delay however ,the more it will impact the mid-terms.

and just like that ;SCOTUS overwhelming ruled Trump overstepped his authority by using emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs . Justice Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett joined the libs and Chief Justice Roberts in the decision.

This won't be the end of the tariff saga. Knowing this was a possibility for months ;Trump will shortly run with plan B ;whatever that is ...... most likely pushing trade authorities Congress authorized to the President to their extreme. Section 232 comes immediately to mind.

Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF13006#:~:text=Article%20I%2C%20Section%208%20of, 232.)

Trump appears to be issuing new tariffs Constitutionally using the Trade Act of 1974;which gives the President authority to negotiate trade agreements and respond to unfair trade practices.(section 301)
U
nder Section 301, Congress grants the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) a range of responsibilities and authorities to investigate and take action (e.g., impose a tariff) to enforce U.S. rights under trade agreements and respond to certain foreign trade practices.
Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF11346)

Unless Congress reasserts it's role ,Trump will find ways to impose his will .The rub is that Congress is most comfortable in doing nothing except bloviating .

Read the Justice Gorsuch concurring opinion of the tariff ruling. I encourage everyone to do so.(starts page 28) He wants Congress to step up to the plate and to begin to govern the way the framers intended . He took the matter seriously and did not just mail in his opinion. He devoted 46 pages to explaining the 'major questions doctrine' which says that the President has to be able to point to specific Congressional language when making a regulatory decision.

“Our founders understood that men are not angels, and we disregard that insight at our peril when we allow the few (or the one) to aggrandize their power based on loose or uncertain authority,” ..“We delude ourselves, too, if we think that power will accumulate safely and only in the hands of dispassionate ‘people . . . found in agencies.’”

24-1287 Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (02/20/2026) (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf)

RIGHT ON !

Not too long ago conservatives understood that .When Clueless Joe's agencies issued draconian vaccine ;or energy policies it was conservatives that asked where was Congressional legislation to back it up ?
Yes getting Congress to act is like pulling teeth . But unilateral unchecked executive action is worse . It is a way for democratic representative governance to die.

Back in the day when civics was taught this was understood by elementary school children. A separation of powers is written in to the Constitution to prevent a concentration of power by one branch .

His conclusion says it all


For those who think it important for the Nation to impose more tariffs, I understand that today’s decision will be disappointing. All I can offer them is that most major
decisions affecting the rights and responsibilities of the American people (including the duty to pay taxes and tariffs) arefunneled through the legislative process for a reason. Yes, legislating can be hard and take time. And, yes, it can betempting to bypass Congress when some pressing problem arises. But the deliberative nature of the legislative process was the whole point of its design. Through that process, the Nation can tap the combined wisdom of the people’s elected representatives, not just that of one faction or man. There, deliberation tempers impulse, and compromise hammersdisagreements into workable solutions. And because laws must earn such broad support to survive the legislative process, they tend to endure, allowing ordinary people to plantheir lives in ways they cannot when the rules shift fromday to day. In all, the legislative process helps ensure each of us has a stake in the laws that govern us and in the Nation’s future. For some today, the weight of those virtues is apparent. For others, it may not seem so obvious. But if history is any guide, the tables will turn and the day willcome when those disappointed by today’s result will appreciate the legislative process for the bulwark of liberty it is.

Meanwhile ,instead of ranting against SCOTUS ,Trump should thank his lucky starts SCOTUS ruled this way .
Nothing keeps an economy down more than uncertainty .And let's face it ;Trump was changing the rules almost daily. He is left with enough wiggle room to impose reasonable tariffs due to past legislative decisions . But now businesses can operate with a much better idea of what their expenses will be.

And for Trump ;deregulation and a pro-business environment will be much better for his legacy than whatever gains he thinks he gets from revenues collected while destroying the trust the world had in American business relations .