"On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders," Trump wrote. "This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"
"I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States — But to no avail," "Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America."


Truth Details | Truth Social (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542)

Truth Details | Truth Social (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585)


I think tariffs generally are ineffective and costs the US consumer .

My question is ;will the left now come to a realization that like tariffs ,taxes on businesses are also passed on to consumers ?

His tariffs did not work in his first term .I expect the same results in Trump 2.0

Yes, tariffs on foreign countries that we buy goods from will raise prices on those goods and screw US consumers!

Yes because the costs get transferred . I don't understand why the left doesn't get that when it comes to corporate taxes.

Trump used tariffs in his first four years and inflation never exceeded 2.5% while wages grew much faster. Biden did not use tariffs and inflation hit 9% with wages trailing behind.

Hmmm.

All government interventions in the free market affects prices be it tariffs or mandates and regulations.
But I believe much of his talk of imposing tariffs is part of the art of the deal. Justin Trudeau got on the horn with Trump within hours to discuss his concerns . Mexico Pres Claudia Sheinbaum has assured Trump that new illegal caravans will not reach the border .
She also threatened sanctions in return.

What would the impact be ? The US exported $324 billion to Mexico in 2022 and $356 billion to Canada. Now we import more from both countries because our consumers are more prosperous .

Trump negotiated USMCA his first term. His concerns with both countries could be addressed in that framework

China is a different story . They are enemies as far as I'm concerned and there are many more national security issues at stake including the wholesale theft of intellectual property ;and materials critical for military ;medicine ;and high tech production.

Treasury Sec designate Scott Bessett has the answer . (what a brilliant mind </sarc>)

“tariffs can’t be inflationary because if the price of one thing goes up, unless you give people more money, then they have less money to spend on the other thing, so there is no inflation.”

Let's see now. If the price of exported gas from Canada or let's say auto parts from Mexico goes up 25% but you don't give people more money then it is not inflationary . Got it . Even better ;because people don't have the extra money to pay for the gas or other products brought in under the tariffs ,people purchase less !!!! It is actually deflationary !!! or stagflationary or something like that . Sorry I don't have the mind of an economist

Clueless Joe drove up prices by flooding the market with cheap monopoly bucks Trump will drive up prices by taxing imports .

Didn't he do that in his first term?

I was a critic of his tariffs then and am now . I posted this when he announced steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 .

herr Donald Herbert Hoover Smoot Hawley Trump (https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/current-events/herr-donald-herbert-hoover-smoot-hawley-trump-837548.html)

There are 2 ways that the costs of tariffs are absorbed . The importer can absorb the costs and thus have less profit . The consumer absorbs the cost . And this is not a one way street . Any retaliatory tariff cost are paid for by the exporting company. We'll probably just subsidize the difference.

I can post a number of studies that back up the claim that the tariffs he imposed hurt consumers and only had limited benefits on some of the industries they were designed to protect. I would have to trust the economic language in the studies because to me they are more confusing than reading medical studies.

Did the prices of steel and aluminum go up by any level that proved to be ruinous?

Despite the seeming draconian nature of his first term tariffs, revenues from tariffs only increased by about 40 billion dollars, a relatively small amount compared to the multiplied hundreds of billions of dollars of goods we import every year.

Steel went up 41%
The American steel industry came out ahead . With less competition they were able to raise their prices .

How Steel Tariffs Affect Your Metal Building Price | General Steel (https://gensteel.com/resources/infographics/how-steel-tariffs-affect-your-building-price/#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20prices%20for%20US,due%20to %20the%20steel%20tariffs.)

The losers ? The industries that use steel like auto and construction .

Corporate America is caught in the crossfire of trade war (https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/26/investing/trade-war-business-china-tariffs/index.html?iid=EL)

Truthfully, it nearly doubled in two years, and yet overall inflation never topped 2.5%, so it certainly did not have a profoundly negative effect on the economy as a whole which did very well.

Steel - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel)

We have a choice to make here. Do we allow foreign nations to sell heavily subsidized products such as steel to the detriment of our own industries and workers, or do we use tariffs to make the point that we will not allow that?

We have a choice to make here. Do we allow foreign nations to sell heavily subsidized products such as steel to the detriment of our own industries and workers, or do we use tariffs to make the point that we will not allow that?


Why not as long as they meet our quality standards ? If they are subsidizing products then they are hurting their markets just like subsidizing hurts ours . Unless we have a domestic market that can produce at the rate we need as inexpensively as we can get the product overseas at our quality standards ,then all we do is punish the US consumer by insisting they buy US .

National security products besides ;why not get cheaper items from friendly trade partners ? It is a win win.

The trick in the negotiations is to get trade partners to reciprocally purchase more American goods they need. It should be easy just in agricultural products we make. It should also be easy in high tech . But even if there is a trade imbalance it is not a terrible thing. The reason we have trade imbalances is because US consumers demand more products . Knowing that ;trade deficits are not the end of the world . Trump treats them as a score card and that is misguided . The US ,as long as we are prosperous, will always run trade deficits . The score must reflect how it benefits or harms Americans overall ; not just workers .

Why not as long as they meet our quality standards ? If they are subsidizing products then they are hurting their markets just like subsidizing hurts ours .Why not? Because it injures our own domestic manufacturers which we are supposed to be promoting. It also lures us into the trap of becoming dependent on foreign sources. If subsidized steel puts our own steel producers out of business, will you be happy when foreign steel prices go up and we have no alternative but to buy from them???

It is not a win/win for the unemployed workers from the businesses destroyed by unfair foreign competition, nor is it a win/win for the owners and investors associated with those businesses.

Back to 19th century protectionist mercantilism model (oops I mean economic nationalism ) ;the Reagan /Thatcher free market system dead. In this new world we will hardly be different than the XI Jingping Chinese model of the state asserting control over the markets ....or for that matter Bidenomics. State control of the markets by a combination of domestic subsidies while restricting imports through taxes (tariffs )

It may be inevitable with trade blocks forming around the globe that is morphing into decoupling of a common global reserve currency.

It's a zero sum game .The only way to increase our wealth is to damage the other nation's . That is why empires formed in the past . Economic warfare lead to real warfare .

Let's see now . Tariffs like subsidies benefit the inefficient industries like steel They send lobbyists to DC to beg for more largess. Roughly 83,000 people are employed in steel production in the US . But the higher costs of steel imports from tariffs and the domestic price increases that will come from restricted competition will impact the jobs of some 13 million Americans who produce products from steel)(like machine manufacturers ;the auto industry; and construction )
The number of steel jobs are declining that is true. Some of it may come from foreign competition . Much of it comes from the inevitable loss of jobs through innovation. As an example ,the US is a leading agricultural producers and exporter . But farm jobs steadily declined over the years as innovation replaced human sweat . Farm workers went to work in other sectors where innovation created new markets To replace jobs lost markets need to be expanded. How that happens when trade barriers are erected through tariff and retaliatory tariff is beyond me.

I know I am in the minority in this thinking . Trump is fused at the hip with the progressives in the Dem party like Bernie Sanders. Exports are good ;imports are bad is bipartisan thinking .
Trade Policies of Both Parties Ignore What Most Americans Say They Want | Cato at Liberty Blog (https://www.cato.org/blog/trade-policies-both-parties-ignore-what-most-americans-say-they-want)

I am not opposed to diversifying the supply base and doing things like nearshoring to eliminate dependency on enemies like China . I oppose punitive tariffs on trading partners like Mexico and Canada ;both of whom Trump negotiated a free trade agreement with in his first term.

So the choice is between allowing a flood of cheap imports to help consumers and some manufacturers at the expense of losing valuable production capacities, or of trying to protect your domestic industries from foreign competition being given an edge by their own governments.

Yes cheap imports benefit consumers ;manufacturers ;retailers that sell the products . . Some domestic production is lost . If we become dependent on the products of a hostile nation it is an issue that needs addressing . Otherwise if our trades are with friends then we benefit from the imports and hopefully they benefit from what we sell.


being given an edge by their own governments


would that be like a subsidize courtesy of the taxpayer ? which of course is what a tariff is;a subsidy to a favored company or industry or as I like to call them 'rent seekers (like the steel industry that keeps a small army of lobbyists knocking on DC doors looking for the protection the government can provide ) Maybe the reason they are so soft and uncompetitive is because they have depended on special government treatment and fell behind the innovation curve. ( example the "minimill" was new technology in the 1980s . But US Steel did not incorporate it until 20 years later )

“No inventions; no innovations," a History of US Steel (https://www.construction-physics.com/p/no-inventions-no-innovations-a-history)


I fail to see how selling at a loss benefits a company or a nation. And I fail to see how punishing our consumers for purchasing a foreign product helps . American consumers make choices all the time . I have yet to see where most of them will go for a more expensive shirt because it is made in the USA.

S& P Global did an impact analysis of possible outcomes to the auto industry if Trump goes through with his tariff threat.

They estimate that US and Euro automakers would take a 17% hit on their profits .


This burden would have to be passed through to customers, reduced by countermeasures, or absorbed by lower profits.

Auto Industry Buckles Up For Trump's Proposed Tariffs On Car Imports | S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241129-auto-industry-buckles-up-for-trump-s-proposed-tariffs-on-car-imports-13340097)


"We expect mitigating actions will make potentially higher tariffs manageable, but the combined effects of tariffs, tighter CO2 regulation in Europe from 2025, and earnings pressure from stronger competition in China and Europe could increase the risk of downgrades"


"Mitigating actions" meaning more taxpayer subsidies to the industry.


For now ;until he follows through ,I am inclined to believe these threats are part of the 'art of the deal' to strengthen his negotiation position.

Yesterday Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico will start next week

Trump says tariffs on Canada and Mexico 'will go forward' (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/24/trump-says-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-will-go-forward.html)

He also demanded that the company building the Keystone XL pipeline finish the job.


In a social media post on Monday, Trump urged the company that was building the pipeline to "come back to America," saying his administration would offer easy approvals and an almost immediate start.
"The Trump Administration is very different (from the Biden administration) - Easy approvals, almost immediate start! If not them, perhaps another Pipeline Company. We want the Keystone XL Pipeline built," Trump said in the post.
Trump's post did not name a company and only referred to the one that was building the pipeline earlier.


The company that was doing the job is a CANADIAN company.

TC Energy Corporation Company Profile - Overview - GlobalData (https://www.globaldata.com/company-profile/tc-energy-corporation/)

About (https://www.southbow.com/about)

And what is the purpose of the pipeline ?
To pump CANADIAN imported oil to refineries and ports for CANADIAN companies to refine and export CANADIAN oil out of the US .

Keystone XL — Maps (https://www.keystonexl.com/maps/)

BTW South Bow has already walked away from the project after being jerked around since the emperor's reign.

An alternative pipeline was completed to Canada's Pacific coast so it can be refined and sold to China .

TCI Energy Brief: Early TMX Pipeline Expansion Data Reveals China’s Emerging Role as a Significant Buyer of Canadian Crude, Offering Some Diversification From the U.S. Market | The China Institute (https://www.ualberta.ca/en/china-institute/research/analysis-briefs/2025/trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion.html#:~:text=The%20TMX%20pipeline:%20Cur rent%20state,bpd%20refinery%20in%20Zhejiang%20prov ince.)


GREAT JOB !!!!!!!

Mexico is trying to play nice in the sandbox . They say "oh you want a crack down on the cartels ???? You got it "
Extradition of 29 cartel leaders shows Mexico 'can do more' | Border Report (https://www.borderreport.com/immigration/border-crime/extradition-of-29-cartel-leaders-shows-mexico-can-do-more/)

The economy and inflation in particular was the number one reason Trump won.

The impact of inflation on the 2024 presidential election | Hub (https://hub.jhu.edu/2024/11/20/how-inflation-impacted-2024-election/)

So of course one month into his term Trump is enacting tariffs that are guaranteed to raise household consumer prices.

His claims that he is imposing them because of fentanyl is a lie. I had hoped he was using the threat as a pretext to a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada . That was not the case. He truly believes that high tariffs is the answer to correct a trade balance ;and to bring jobs home.

He is wrong and it could cost him the ability to effectively run the county . Americans are not going to respond kindly to a $1,200 annual hit on their finances
Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would cost the typical US household over $1,200 a year | PIIE (https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/trumps-tariffs-canada-mexico-and-china-would-cost-typical-us-household)

Article1 sec 8 Clause 3

[The Congress shall have Power . . . ] To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

Congress has the power to put an end to Trump's reckless tariffs if they had the balls .

Best guess is that Trump thinks the US is such an economic power house that the countries he's imposing tariffs on will blink first. He is betting the US consumer can absorb the pain for longer gains down the road.

I have to remind him that the American consumer has had just about enough of having their buying power eroded by foolish policies.
Trump likes to use the stock market as a gage . I do too because almost all retirement funds are invested . In 2 days it shed all gains since the election. He is looking at slower growth and inflation aka stagflation.

He is taking a big risk that his “little disturbance" in the economy will not defeat his agenda. Retaliatory tariffs are coming to American export products ..... often agricultural . That means red state constituencies will take a 1-2 punch. Higher prices and loss of export business (a total of $176 billion in agricultural goods exported )
U.S. Agricultural Exports Close 2024 on a Strong Note | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/trade-spotlight-us-agricultural-exports-close-2024-on-strong-note)

It is a roll of the dice for sure.

Well so far the markets have given up every gain since the summer . Trump's gamble may be to fix the economy by forcing a recession to end in 2027-8 as Reagan's recession did in 1981 before the rebound in 1988 . That is a HUGE gamble . If he allows the Dems to regain control of Congress in 2026 then he is effectively a lame duck . The question will be IF DOGE found fraud then where is the prosecutions ? Unless he is willing to charge the swamp then his arguement dies and so does the country.


Stocks plunge, market closes down on recession fears amid escalating tariffs (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-plunge-market-closes-down-on-recession-fears-amid-escalating-tariffs/ar-AA1AC8nC?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=590b196498a74876b0cc38fd416ad9bf&ei=14)

Stocks Get Hammered After Donald Trump Refuses to Rule Out Recession (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-get-hammered-after-donald-trump-refuses-to-rule-out-recession/ar-AA1ADB6l?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=48d3bb74f8c742fab12705ecf25ac217&ei=22)

Very good post. A good start does not always lead to a good conclusion.

Peter Doocy commented yesterday before the press briefing

"And we also expect the White House to try to reassure folks who are sitting there looking at their 401(k)s going down and down and down. This is a White House that came in trying to get federal workers to retire by the hundreds of thousands, but it’s tough to make the argument that you should retire if your retirement accounts are getting throttled, which is what is happening right now. So we expect-, we hope for answers to all of these curiosities any minute."

Trump who previously used the markets to gage the economy and to adjust policies is now singing a different tune. On this issue he has pivoted . He now compared the US economic strategy to China.

In an interview with Maria Bartiromo he said


“You can’t really watch the stock market. “If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective. We have a quarter. We go by quarters.”

Trump: Don't Just Watch The Stock Market, "China Has A 100-Year Perspective, We Go By Quarters" | Video | RealClearPolitics (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/03/09/trump_dont_watch_the_stock_market_china_has_a_100-year_perspective_we_go_by_quarters.html)

That's all well and good . But retires have already finished their long term strategies and now are at a point where short term disruptions ....."pain"
"adjustments "have real short term consequences . For us retires ;short term is all we have left.

Maybe if we knew what was coming we would've adjusted accordingly . For us the only income we have is the inadequate return from Social Security and whatever value our savings generated .

What we are seeing is the combination of our spending power being eroded by inflation AND NOW ; the devaluation of our savings.

For retired Trump supporters ;this is not what we signed up for.

But he does have a point. We are being silly if we expect the stock market to always go up and never down. We'll have better answers in December.

His point is well taken if that is how he conducted himself and what he campaigned on . I'm not expecting a constant rise . My strategy is conservate that factors in market adjustments

What I don't like is a plunge because of bad policy by the government , Maybe he can weather a year or two of bad times as he reimagines the economy in his thoughts of the moment. But there are real time consequences .

While he prioritizes draconian tariffs ,his tax cuts are due to expire . We will now pay for increased income taxes along with existing inflation and the added bonus of having to pay the additional costs of his tariffs.

Karoline Leavitt was plain wrong yesterday .

This was her absurd answer to an AP reporter

“He’s actually not implementing tax hikes. Tariffs are a tax hike on foreign countries that, again, have been ripping us off,” “Tariffs are a tax cut for the American people, and the president is a staunch advocate for tax cuts."

In no form are they tax cuts to the people . It is a hidden tax on the consumers who bears the brunt in higher prices. OR they cut back on spending which is not great for the economy either . Tariffs aren't paid by the foreign company. They are paid by the importer or retailer . They can't absorb the increase so they pass it on to the consumer .

In all ways he is wrong with tariffs . We are not in the 19th century. 100 % tariffs on foreign goods would not pay for the interest on the debt.

Tariffs will not reduce foreign imports . There are many commodities ;products that we can't inshore. And the double edge sword that consumers deal with are the cost of exports increase by retaliatory tariffs . It also increases the demand for domestic goods .....again increasing their costs .

And what will the Fed do ? Their goals of taming inflation is compromised so they may very well hold interest rates or increase them which impacts the cost of borrowing AND paying off the debt.

What really eats at me is that both Mexico and Canada have played under the rules of USMCA which Trump negotiated and praised as a beautiful trade treaty . Now he complains that it is a rip off . Fine ; the solution is one he loves so much . Go to the table and negotiate a new treaty . What he is screwing around with is trade with Canada alone worth$900 billion
U.S.-Canada Trade Relations | Congress.gov | Library of Congress (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12595)

Maybe he thinks the US can go it alone . There was a small case for that in the 19th century ;although I might add that was when the US was most imperialist . There is no case for it today. Take the auto industry as an example . Thousands of auto parts are made and assembled in the 3 USMCA nations . The parts themselves cross the border dozens of times in the course of producing a car. Now so far the auto industry has been exempt . But his constant threats have created an uncertainty that by itself affects the market . (I spoke of it above ) His on again off again threats seemingly by the hour again is the cause of the uncertainty

For a person who built his wealth in construction he is surprising ignorant about the consequences .

It doesn’t make sense that our country allows electricity to be made in another country and sold into us,”not very smart.”

Trump Tariffs Live Updates: Europe and Canada Retaliate After Tariffs Take Effect - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/03/12/business/trump-tariffs-steel-aluminum)

Which stupid President did that?

Ummmm that would be Trump . Electicity has flowed to the US from the Canadian Niagara river plants since 1897 . Energy trade was part of USMCA

Wonder if Trump thinks it is "not very smart " to encourage the completion of the Keystone XL pipeline to be completed to import Canadian Oil ?

Trump wants Keystone XL pipeline built 'now' | Financial Post (https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/trump-canada-us-keystone-xl-oil-pipeline-built)

The Repubs yesterday slipped language into the CR bill that cements Trump's authority to continue to unconstitutionally abuse emergency powers to bypass Congresses constitutional power to tariff. Sec 19

Each day for the remainder of the first session of the 119th Congress shall not constitute a calendar day for purposes of section 202 of the National Emergencies Act with respect to a joint resolution terminating a national emergency declared by the President on February 1, 2025,
CommitteeOnRulesDraftRule118 (https://rules.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/rules.house.gov/files/documents/rule_hj-res-25_hr1156_hr1968.pdf)


In other words . There is no time limit in this session on Trump's abuse of emergency powers if this passes The IEEPA law says that Congress is allowed to cancel any presidential action by being directly brought to the floor without first going to committee. This negates even if Congress becomes convinced he over stepped the law.

The Dems of course were furious. But this passed on a party line vote. Only Tom Massie (R–Ky.) voted no . Dems have some more bills about this on the table that will be defeated . Trump will have the power for 2 years to jerk around the economy on a whim without the prospect of a Congressional challenge to his abuse of emergency powers .

Bad news for us who desire to have a constitutional balance of power.

Oh Canada . Some inconvenient facts for the President.

Our trade deficit with Canada is the smallest of our trading partners. There is nothing I can find that shows a $200 billion imbalance. Why do we have trade deficits ? Because we are the richest nation and we consume more than any other nation.

If you exclude energy ;we have the surplus with Canada ;and that includes the auto industry.


Oil, critical for fuelling refineries in the U.S. Midwest, is purchased at a substantial discount, processed and re-sold.
If you take Canadian oil out of the equation, Canada actually has a trade deficit, and the U.S. has a surplus — of $58 billion.

Does the U.S. actually have a trade deficit with Canada? | National Post (https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/donald-trump-us-trade-deficit-canada#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWe%20don%27t%20need%20anyt hing,condensed%20for%20clarity%20and%20length.)

Strategic metals .....Canada supplies the US with 50%-80% of its zinc, tellurium, nickel and vanadium .The energy and metals we purchase from Canada were the result of a conscious effort to lessen dependency on China and the Middle East

Hawley–Smoot Tariff - Ferris Bueller's Day Off. - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOHbyuanbY&t=2s)

Countries like Singapore and South Korea have free trade deals with the US where almost all goods cross borders tariff and tax free . Where they do impose taxes on US goods they do it with their own domestic products as well in the form of sales taxes.

Yet Trump is hitting both hard . Why ? Because of a trade deficit with them . It makes no sense . They sell more to the US because US consumers buy more stuff . It is as simple as that .We are the world's largest consumer market.

The only nations we run surpluses with are Netherlands, Hong Kong, Australia, and the United Kingdom. This is due to energy exports .

my losses in the last 2 days = more than what was my annual contribution to my 401 K was while I was in the work force. He is shoving his "disruption " up my A$$ . So I lose 2 ways . My wealth declines and I will likely have to pay more for goods .

He likened it to surgery . He says now is recovery time . Surgeon Trump cut an artery to operate on a hemorrhoid .

Tax Foundation was quick to analyze the impacts of Trump's tariffs.

It doesn't look pretty especially for the folks (as Bill O'Reilly would say)
Although revenue will come in ;US GDP will shrink
The American household gets slammed with almost a 2% reduction in after tax revenue and and average tax increase of almost $2,000
And this is before they can calculate the effects of retaliatory tariffs that will be placed on US goods.

Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War (https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/)

Threatened and imposed retaliatory tariffs affect $330 billion of US exports based on 2024 US import values; if fully imposed, we estimate they would reduce US GDP by 0.1 percent. Combined, the US-imposed tariffs and the threatened and imposed retaliatory tariffs reduce US GDP by 0.8 percent.


The only way this works is if ;as some of his allies contents ;that this is all part of the art of the deal.

Ted Cruz said on his podcast

“If we’re in a scenario 30 days from now, 60 days from now, 90 days from now with massive American tariffs and massive tariffs on American goods and every other country on earth, that is a terrible outcome,"

Tariffs, Tariffs Everywhere-Wh… - Verdict with Ted Cruz - Apple Podcasts (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tariffs-tariffs-everywhere-what-will-it-do-to-the-us/id1495601614?i=1000702164736)

He called this move a long ball and if it fails we will have abig recession going into the mid-term elections.




...... "This is the biggest tax increase we have seen in a long, long time," .


Some countries look like they want to go to the negotiating table immediately . But China is ready to play hardball.



India has long been one of the world’s most protectionist countries, only opening up its economy in the 1990s to avert a financial crisis. In 2023, India’s average tariff (not accounting for trade deals) stood at 17 percent, nearly six times the average U.S. rate, according to the World Trade Organization…

For some economists, the U.S. pressure represents a welcome and overdue catalyst for domestic reform.

“We have to reduce tariffs,” [Shiv Nadar University economics professor Rajat Kathuria] said. “This is an opportunity for India to do something that it always wants to do, and has wanted to do, but is politically difficult to do. ”

The Modi government has signaled it is inching in this direction. In March, the Commerce Ministry urged Indian businesses to shed their “protectionist mindset.”


Trump’s tariffs put India and its struggling economy at a crossroads - The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/04/india-trump-tariffs-modi-trade/)

Trump’s Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates With 34% Tariffs - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/china-trump-tariffs-retaliation.html)

He wants to be #1 . That means he is not happy with Clueless Joe being the #1 moron to ever occupy the oval office.

So last week he intentionally tanked the economy . Told us to bend over and take our medicine . Then he told us to buckle up because more was coming before he buckled up to his golf cart largely immune to the damage he is orchestrating .

Last night he causally told us to suck it up butter cup ;you aint seen nothing yet . He made it clear that this was not the art of the deal. Oh no . His plan is not only to have no trade imbalance with any country . He also plans to recoup past losses .

Is it possible ? Sure . During the depth of the Great Depression the US had a trade surplus as the world economy was rocked by protectionist policies that directly led to WWII . Other than that ;the way to bring us into trade balance is to stop being the most prosperous nation and the freest nation.

Yes if Americans buy fewer goods we will eventually be dragged down to world standards . He leaves the markets perplexed because he alternately calls the tariffs short term bargaining tools and also a long term strategy for revenue raising .

So let me be the first to say good morning to Black Monday 2.0

The one hope I have is that his strategy backfires so badly that he declares himself the winner and backs off.


After a brief foray into the tariff game in his first term he adopted a winning strategy of doing the hard work of negotiating trade deals . But who is going to buy it this time after he stabbed Canada and Mexico in the back on the deal he negotiated 4 years ago ? He talks a good game about "fair " trade . But if his marker is trade imbalance then he is using a flawed model.
As long as we are the most prosperous nation we will alway purchase more goods than any other nation. I get wanting manufacturing in the US . But do we really want to drive up the cost of buying shoes in the US because they are not made in the US;and do we really want to have our manufacturing base making sneakers or cheap pet toys ?
So who cares if Vietnam prospers because they can sell us cheap sneakers ? If they are made in the US they won't be cheap . So who wins ?

There will never be "fair "trade in Trump's world .

Look at Israel. Israel has eliminated all it's tariffs on US goods . But because we buy more goods from Israel than they buy from us ;there is still a trade deficit.
So what did Trump do?

Israeli officials reacted with shock to a 17% tariff on products exported to the U.S., having signed a directive a day earlier scrapping all remaining tariffs on American imports.
Israel Hit With 17% Tariffs Despite Saying It Would Scrap Levies on U.S. Goods (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-03-2025/card/israel-hit-with-17-tariffs-despite-saying-it-would-scrap-levies-on-u-s-goods-YMtDXBPmtOu018IXjLG5)

This is a larger tariff on Israel than he imposed on Iran.


The losers and worse losers of Trump’s tariffs on the Middle East and North Africa | Middle East Eye (https://www.middleeasteye.net/explainers/breaking-down-trumps-tariffs-middle-east)

You see ;we sanction Iran so it is hard for Americans to buy Iranian goods . So no real trade imbalance. Iran gets the base line because well ;every country is hit with the baseline for no apparent reason.

Israel is our friend . But he is treating them like an enemy. We may find we have far fewer friends in this world .

Pretty well reasoned post.

President Reagan's Radio Address on Free and Fair Trade on April 25, 1987 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5t5QK03KXPc)

I basically agree with what he is trying to do and agree that it needs to be done. I have no problems with tariffs since we are subject to MANY of them with our exports. But I think Trump's approach is so insulting and confrontational that it can end up being a big negative. It all comes back to his greatest, most glaring weakness, and that is his big mouth.

What he should be doing is negotiating trade deals with our partners . Paly hardball with China all he wants to and our enemies . But what he REALLY should be doing is getting the DOGE findings cemented with legislation so they are not temporary . AND he should be whipping Congress (he can't count on the Repubs to get it done) to get a budget passed and his tax cuts made permanent .

He now has a year and a half . Now he has the damage he has done to the economy on his plate. Clueless Joe owned the recession until this week .

If he doesn't get immediate results then he will lose the House and the Repubs may lose the White House .

This whole thing is a big unforced error in my book . If I am wrong I'll admit it .

The whole GOP agenda is being upended over Bull$hite . The House has not voted on the No Rogue Rulings Act about rogue district judges ;or the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, both vital for the GOP agenda .Why ? Because an internal pi$$ing contest over if pregnant members can vote by proxy. Mark my words . The morons will go on a 2 week Easter break having done nothing.

China is not going down without a fight . The markets were doing great yesterday until Trump announced that since China is not going belly up to his demands ;he was going to up China's tariffs to 104% . Then it ended up being another day of people's lifetime of work getting gutted . I guess it was always Trump's business model playing high risk poker with other people's money .

China has the means to go toe to toe . They hold massive amounts of US debt . Rumor has it they have begun dumping it .
Is China dumping US treasuries? (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-dumping-us-treasuries-221754241.html)

Treasury yields skyrocketed yesterday .

U.S. Treasury yields spike as midnight strikes on tariffs - MarketWatch (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-treasury-yields-spike-as-midnight-strikes-on-tariffs-2d2f94f4)

Where is this going ? Trump will wake up soon and be on social media . Buckle up

That means the US will be paying off debt with higher interest rates ;something Trump was trying to avoid.

That means mortgage rates are going up

Mortgage rates slingshot higher as tariff uncertainty roils markets (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/08/mortgage-rates-higher-tariff-uncertainty.html)

The tariff calculations were puzzling to me . How could countries be taking such huge advantages of us over these many years ;especially since traditionally the Dems have been pro-tariffs over the years ?

Well the answer is that the calculations that came up with the tariffs were wrong.

Who says so ? That would be the economists who came up with the formula. The Trump geniuses plugged in the wrong number .


But even if one were to take the Trump Administration’s tariff formula seriously, it makes an error that inflates the tariffs assumed to be levied by foreign countries four-fold. As a result, the “reciprocal” tariffs imposed by President Trump are highly inflated as well.
Though in effect the formula for the tariff placed on the United States by another country is equal to the trade deficit divided by imports, the formula published by the Office of the US Trade Representative has two additional terms in the denominator that just so happen to cancel out: (1) the elasticity of import demand with respect to import prices, ε, and (2) the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ.
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/corinthveugerequation040425.png?x85095
The idea is that as tariffs rise, the change in the trade deficit will depend on the responsiveness of import demand to tariffs, which depends on how import demand responds to import prices and how import prices respond to tariffs. The Trump Administration assumes an elasticity of import demand with respect to import prices of four, and an elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs of 0.25, the product of which is one and is the reason they cancel out in the Administration’s formula.
However, the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs should be about one (actually 0.945), not 0.25 as the Trump Administration states. Their mistake is that they base the elasticity on the response of retail prices to tariffs, as opposed to import prices as they should have done.

President Trump’s Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It’s Also Based on an Error. | American Enterprise Institute - AEI (https://www.aei.org/economics/president-trumps-tariff-formula-makes-no-economic-sense-its-also-based-on-an-error/)

To us math challenged people ,the formula is complicated . But told that the penalty is 4X too high is simple to understand .

But it does explain how penguins are ripping us off.

Commerce chief Lutnick defends tariffs on islands with only penguins (https://nypost.com/2025/04/07/us-news/commerce-chief-lutnick-defends-tariffs-on-islands-with-only-penguins/)


meanwhile China is not backing down

China raises its retaliatory tariff on the US to 84% as it vows to 'fight to the end' (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/china-raises-its-retaliatory-tariff-on-the-us-to-84-as-it-vows-to-fight-to-the-end/ar-AA1CAhyv?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=e089b96d96a64ea785ad07e5f1de3798&ei=20)

and a years worth of gains in the market has been blown in less than a week .

Things are moving too fast . The EU announced reciprocal tariifs . Trump backed off and gave a 90 day reprieve to most nations . China called for trade talks

Stocks surged . The conspiracy theorists will say this was the oligarchs buying the dip thanks to Trump . But they have lost $billions and have more likely told him to ease up .

Trump also restored some foreign aid that he said were cut "in error "

He will call all this cr@p a victory

Morgan Stanley says Trump tariffs projecting a $2.7 trillion haul over 10 years .What that means is that the American people will shell out $2.7 million in extra costs of products .
Trump’s tariffs are turning into a ‘mosaic’ that will be ‘idiosyncratic,’ Morgan Stanley says, projecting a $2.7 trillion haul over 10 years (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-s-tariffs-are-turning-into-a-mosaic-that-will-be-idiosyncratic-morgan-stanley-says-projecting-a-2-7-trillion-haul-over-10-years/ar-AA1INAtG?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=305fdc62733246bbaf176436855a75ea&ei=24)