Last week the Labor Department “revised “the fiction that the Administration and the Kam the Sham campaign had been touting ;that the bad economy we have all been experiencing was really not that bad. That was because they had created so many new jobs. Now we know that was a big lie.

CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement (bls.gov) (https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm)

Look at the top line . The number is staggering . 818,000 FEWER JOBS than had been reported .

The strength of the job market was the single excuse for the Federal Reserve to keep high interests rates . This in turn has negatively impacted everything else in the economy from housing to consumer debt.


The updated numbers are the latest sign of vulnerability in the job market, which until recently had appeared rock solid despite months of high interest rates and economists’ warnings of an impending recession. More recent data, which wasn’t affected by the revisions, suggests job growth slowed further in the spring and summer, and the unemployment rate, though still relatively low at 4.3 percent, has been gradually rising.

U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/business/economy/us-jobs-economy.html)

But how can that be ? As recently as June they reported an addition of 272,000 jobs ADDED .

May Surprises With 272K New Jobs Added | Economy | U.S. News (usnews.com) (https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2024-06-07/may-surprises-with-272k-new-jobs-added)

Surprise indeed . It was a lie!!!!

Conveniently this new revision comes at the same time that the Fed is having it’s annual meeting at Jackson Hole Wyoming.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that based on this new data ;the time has come for a rate cut !

'The time has come' to lower interest rates: Fed Chair Jerome Powell : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2024/08/23/nx-s1-5082386/fed-jerome-powell-lower-interest-rates)

Yeah that’s the ticket ;a rate cut in September in the middle of the Fall campaign!!!!

Oh stop spreading conspiracy theories Tom … Nothing to see here . WE all know that the Fed would never stoop so low as to take politics into consideration when deciding monetary policy .</sarc>

Turns out that the big liar in this presidential season is...Biden/Harris.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXtSnnKW0AAuv5S?format=jpg&name=small

As predicted the Federal Reserve cut interest rates . What is shocking is that they cut them a full half point instead of a 1/4 point.
That signals one of 2 things
1. the economy is so bad that we need a drastic change to stimulate it
2. this is a political move to help the administration .

(see above )


Yeah that’s the ticket ;a rate cut in September in the middle of the Fall campaign!!!!

Oh stop spreading conspiracy theories Tom … Nothing to see here . WE all know that the Fed would never stoop so low as to take politics into consideration when deciding monetary policy .</sarc>

Did you see Jerome Powell's press conference after the Fed lowered rates a full half point ? He pretty much blamed illegal immigration for the increase in the unemployment rate . We already know that the administration was lying for months about the number of jobs created . Now Powell puts an end to the lie that we need illegal immigrants to do the jobs Americans will not do .


IT DEPENDS ON THE INFLOW. IF YOU'RE HAVING MILLIONS OF PEOPLE COME INTO THE LABOR FORCE AND CREATING 100,000 JOBS YOU WILL SEE UNEMPLOYMENT GO UP. IT DEPENDS ON WHAT IS THE TREND UNDERLYING THE VOLATILITY OF PEOPLE COMING INTO THE COUNTRY. WE UNDERSTAND THERE HAS BEEN QUITE AN INFLUX ACROSS THE BORDERS AND THAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAS ALLOWED THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO RISE.

User Clip: FED Chair Jerome Powell says mass immigration across the border raises unemployment rates in the U.S. | C-SPAN.org (https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5133026/user-clip-fed-chair-jerome-powell-mass-immigration-border-raises-unemployment-rates-us)

Now that the elections are over ;the Fed came clean that the rate cut(an unprecedented half point after 8 straight sessions of not adjusting them . Normally the rate if lowered would've been a quarter point) they began in September were a sham to help Kam .
As predicts ;inflation is not tamed and the rate cuts caused an uptick in the inflation rate.

Trump already has said he will appoint a new Fed Chair

So Powell gave him a final FU yesterday. He lowered the rates a quarter point which will continue to increase the inflation rate going into Trump's term.

Then to rub salt into it he told the markets that would be the last cut for a while. The uncertainty that the Fed has engineered let to the markets having the biggest sell off in 50 years.
Here’s Why the Dow Just Had Its Worst Slump in 50 Years (https://www.investopedia.com/why-the-dow-just-had-its-worst-slump-in-50-years-8763445)

E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. on X: "Trump is inheriting a ticking time bomb - the new admin really has their work cut out for them, cleaning up this inflation mess: https://t.co/hY5NOm2E1w" / X (https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1866847755823435861)

The correct course would've been to tighten the money supply to fix inflation ;not loosen it. But that was not the path to election victory . So like the labor rates ;the administration fudged the numbers .

Some would call it "election interference"

WSJ thinks the Fed just "ooops'ed " in it's predictions about inflation . I still contend there was a political motivation to the rate cuts.
The Fed Admits an Inflation Mistake - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/opinion/federal-reserve-fomc-interest-rate-cut-jerome-powell-markets-inflation-aa9d6987?mod=opinion_lead_pos2)

The traders on Wall Street reacted negatively to the Fed's interest rate move. First stocks tanked because Powell said they may not continue cutting rates . Then bonds dropped because he did drop rates.

It is said that traders are nervous ;not just because of what the Fed might do; but also uncertainty about Trump's economic plans . I have detailed some of the concerns on other posts . deregulations ;tax cuts that are about to expire ;tariffs .

No one is really sure where Trump will go .I have gone under the rule to pay attention to what he does over what he says .

The one thing traders should be thankful for . Trump won and not Kam the Sham.

I hope DOGE succeeds
I hope he gets Congress to extend the tax cuts
I hope he can get Congress to pass a budget that doesn't rely on continuing resolutions .
I hope his talk of tariffs is art of the deal ways to get better trade deals .
I hope all this leads to economic growth

I KNOW where Kam would've lead us.

I hope his talk of tariffs is art of the deal ways to get better trade deals .

Looks like my worse fears are being realized regarding tariffs . There is some justification for Mexico The 25% tariffs on Canada make zero sense. (China is a separate issue)

Trump launches trade war with tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-readies-order-steep-tariffs-goods-mexico-canada-china-2025-02-01/)

Autarky is the belief that you can achieve economic independent self sufficiency .It is a fantasy in today's world . Yet Trump seems to think it possible.

The pretext that it is punishment for allowing the smuggling of drugs into the US is a lame excuse. The problem with drugs in America is that it is a demand issue. There would be no smuggling them in if there was no market for them.

I purchased a new car last year and I am glad I didn't wait. I did so because I was concerned about mandates that would continue should Kam the Sham be elected .
But now I am glad because his tariffs are guaranteed to make the already costs of new cars even more expensive. The supply chain for autos stretched across Mexico;US and Canada in a way that will be impossible to unravel without imposing tremendous costs to the price of the final product.

Every car made in the USA has most of it's parts cross the border one way or another


Like its predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the USMCA continues to be important to the automotive industry’s success. The duty-free treatment granted to originating vehicles and parts has helped to integrate North American production, and the Agreement’s rules of origin have incentivized increased investments, content, and employment in North American automotive production,making the North American automotive sector more competitive. According to an economic model provided by an industry association that considers vehicle production and assembly, vehicle and parts trade volumes, and other factors, 50 percent of the content of vehicles built in Canada originates in the United States, and about 35 percent of the content of vehicles assembled in Mexico originates in the United States. Industry notes that the high levels of U.S. content in Canadian and Mexican vehicles exemplify how the USMCA has carried forward the benefits of an integrated North American automotive sector.

2024 USMCA Autos Report to Congress_0.pdf (https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/2024%20USMCA%20Autos%20Report%20to%20Congress_0.pd f#page=8) (page 2)

WE not only import cars and parts to the 2 nations . We export as well ;$86.2 billion worth

And that's just cars . I don't particularly care about the price of avocados . But many Americans lover their guacamole. But there are many agricultural products that we import . We complain about the inflation of food prices . Does he really think this will bring it down?

Both nations have promised retaliation . And he is threatening tariffs all over the globe. This could easily become a tit-for tat trade war like the Smoot -Hawley tariffs.that helped usher in the Great Depression .

He was rightly proud of negotiating a regional trade agreement his first term. USMCA has worked to the benefits of all countries in the treaty.

Maybe this is all art of the deal BS and he will claim some kind of victory after token concessions . But I fear the worse.

The Tax Foundations estimates that the Trump new tariffs could likely be a $830 tax on American households .
Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War (https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)

Good job !

US Chamber of Commerce chimes in

"The President is right to focus on major problems like our broken border and the scourge of fentanyl, but the imposition of tariffs under IEEPA is unprecedented, won’t solve these problems, and will only raise prices for American families and upend supply chains. The Chamber will consult with our members, including main street businesses across the country impacted by this move, to determine next steps to prevent economic harm to Americans. We will continue to work with Congress and the administration on solutions to address the fentanyl and border crisis."
U.S. Chamber: Tariffs Are Not the Answer | U.S. Chamber of Commerce (https://www.uschamber.com/international/u-s-chamber-tariffs-are-not-the-answer?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)

KCTV5 News on X: "“WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!),” Trump said in a social media post. “BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID.” https://t.co/sqG3j3Z868" / X (https://x.com/KCTV5/status/1886172773791219881)


Is that what he said on the campaign trail ? I don't recall him mentioning any pain . And now he is threatening the EU with tariffs also (which makes more sense than hitting Canada . )


Let's buy American !!!

Here are the major suppliers of Ford parts


Flex-N-Gate Seeburn - Ontario, Canada: door hinges and arms.
NHK Spring - Shiga-ken, Japan: suspension stabilizer linkages.
U-Shin Europe - Komárom-Esztergom, Hungary: steering columns.
Valeo Electric and Electronic Systems - Czechowice-Dziedzice, Poland: starter assemblies.
Webasto Roof & Components - Schierling, Germany: sliding sunroofs.
Summit Plastics - Nanjing, China: instrument panel components.
Dee Zee - Des Moines, Iowa: running boards.
Warn Industries -Clackamas, Oregon: axle assemblies.
Chaidneme - Bogota, Colombia: mufflers and exhaust systems.
Autoliv - Stockholm, Sweden: airbags

Who Are Ford's Main Suppliers? (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052715/who-are-fords-f-main-suppliers.asp#:~:text=Flex%2DN%2DGate%20Seeburn%20 %2D,%2C%20Roush%2C%20and%20Union%20Pacific.)

Tariffs are taxes, and when you tax something you get less of it.Tariffs are regulations and the more regulations you put on a product the more it costs .

Trump did manage to unite the liberals and the conservatives in Canada in a united front against his tariffs. Trudeau slapped the US with retaliatory tariffs . Pierre Poilievre, who is favored to become the next PM , also called for retaliation. He said the trade war will damage both countries. But he said Canada had to stand up for its “sovereignty” and protect its economic interests.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre responds to Trump's tariffs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qnmIB9A_z4)


btw ;the markets have been pricing based on an assumption that his tariff threats were art of the deal and that he would step back from his biggest threats . Now that he is acting on his most draconian threats; I expect the markets to plummet today .
Stock Futures Dive as Trump’s Trade War Rocks Markets (https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/d334aeb7-4878-39b8-843a-1fc65f2a2bf4/stock-futures-dive-as-trump%E2%80%99s.html)

Who does that hurt ? Not Trump . It hurts the millions of Americans who's retirement funds are invested in the markets .

We should beware the dangerous demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends, weakening our economy and national security and the entire free world all while cynically waving the flag

(Ronald Reagan)


Reagan also cited the Declaration of Independence (from the list of grievances against Great Britain )

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

Radio Address to the Nation on the Canadian Elections and Free Trade | Ronald Reagan (https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-canadian-elections-and-free-trade)

President Reagan's Radio Address on Canadian Elections and Free Trade on November 26, 1988 - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tp1T7kPEdDY)

BTW his claim that Canada is a big player in fentanyl smuggling is a big lie. Yes there is some. In 2024 50 lbs were seized from Canada . That compares to 20,610 lbs from Mexico . And all of it originates in China yet he is only putting 10% tariffs on China.
How much fentanyl is seized at US borders each month? | USAFacts (https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-fentanyl-is-seized-at-us-borders/country/united-states/)

Being careful with the truth has never been a Trump strongpoint.

after calls with Trudeau and
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum the tariffs are delayed a month . Can they come up with a new USMCA in a month ?

I can't keep up with this game

Clueless Joe and Kam the Sham touted the job numbers to justify their candidacies . As I noted above ,it was all a fiction.

Now the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported on the last 2 years of their regime. The numbers don't lie. For the last 25 months ending in January of this year ; 17 of them had the numbers reported revised down by a significant amount. Or as Google AI reported .... the initial estimates of job growth were likely inflated and the actual number of jobs created was lower than originally reported across a significant period of time;


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GjMR-sEX0AA7gJA?format=jpg&name=small

Now time for the strawman . It equates illegal immigration with all immigration It argues that there will be a population decline without immigration.

With No Immigration, US Population Will Fall Over 30% by 2100 | RealClearPolitics (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/03/24/with_no_immigration_us_population_will_fall_over_3 0_by_2100_152547.html)

No one I know of argues we should not allow any immigration. All we want is the laws to be enforced and to have an orderly process followed.