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View Full Version : An undeniable truth ........The future depends on Energy


tomder55
May 28, 2024, 05:20 AM
https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/94720969_3162751857102711_2437419435405869056_n.pn g?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5f2048&_nc_ohc=Lg7xev3H83QQ7kNvgHhRJKQ&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=00_AYBGU2tB94uEz6R0SJBu_Ae2DGSIuNbKVs0fS3-C2NmqUg&oe=667D151D
It's a shocking revelation that even the die-hards of the green new steal can no longer deny .
You want more Electric Vehicles ? You need more electricity . One EV uses the same daily consumption as your daily usage for computers, lights and heating and air conditioning. To get the alleged environmental benefits of EVs ;that added energy has to come from renewables. Usage fluctuates during the day . You've heard of peak usage and how some areas of the country have to have rolling brown and black outs .
Rotating Outages (pge.com) (https://www.pge.com/en/outages-and-safety/outage-preparedness-and-support/understanding-electric-outages/rotating-outages.html)

Imagine if say all the commuters in LA LA land tried to recharge their EVs to drive home at that same time . Imagine a time when the only cars on the road are EV's mandated by law .
The "experts " say it can be done.
Can the Nation's Electrical Grid Support Electric Cars? | U.S. News (usnews.com) (https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/can-the-nations-electrical-grid-support-electric-cars)

But that's not all.

We are trying to repatriate manufacturing back to the US. Much of the focus is on semiconductors . We need more power just to catch up to where we once were in the market share.

One of the biggest users of energy in the future will be AI chips . Elon Musk thinks there will be a shortage of available energy by next year .


The idea that the developed world's lights will begin flickering in 2025 because there are so many AIs being trained is pretty remarkable, and if Musk is right, it greatly underscores the need for massive amounts of clean energy, from a variety of different sources, yesterday.

Elon Musk: AI will run out of electricity and transformers in 2025 (newatlas.com) (https://newatlas.com/technology/elon-musk-ai/)


All told, grid planners across the U.S. forecast an increase of 38 gigawatts of peak demand by 2028, according to data reported to federal regulators — a pace of growth that will be hard to keep up with. Data centers and factories can be built in a few years, but it takes four years or more to build new power plants, and up to a decade or longer to build new transmission lines.

Suddenly, US electricity demand is spiking. Can the… | Canary Media (https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/transmission/suddenly-us-electricity-demand-is-spiking-can-the-grid-keep-up)

The facts speak for themselves .EVERY AI chip uses as much energy as 3 EVs
A.I. Could Soon Need as Much Electricity as an Entire Country - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/climate/ai-could-soon-need-as-much-electricity-as-an-entire-country.html)

US electric utilities brace for surge in power demand from data centers | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-electric-utilities-brace-surge-power-demand-data-centers-2024-04-10/#:~:text=Longer%20term%20power%20demand%20from,ove r%2035%20GW%20by%202030.)


Nvidia's H100 GPUs will consume more power than some countries — each GPU consumes 700W of power, 3.5 million are expected to be sold in the coming year | Tom's Hardware (tomshardware.com) (https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/nvidias-h100-gpus-will-consume-more-power-than-some-countries-each-gpu-consumes-700w-of-power-35-million-are-expected-to-be-sold-in-the-coming-year)

The above was a slight underestimate. Nvidia sold nearly 5 million chips .



“There’s a fundamental mismatch between this technology and environmental sustainability,” de Vries said. Recently, the world’s most prominent A.I. cheerleader, Sam Altman, the C.E.O. of OpenAI, voiced similar concerns, albeit with a different spin. “I think we still don’t appreciate the energy needs of this technology,” Altman said at a public appearance in Davos. He didn’t see how these needs could be met, he went on, “without a breakthrough.” He added, “We need fusion or we need, like, radically cheaper solar plus storage, or something, at massive scale—like, a scale that no one is really planning for.”

The Obscene Energy Demands of A.I. | The New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-obscene-energy-demands-of-ai)

jlisenbe
May 28, 2024, 08:36 PM
I remember reading a book several years ago on the topic of energy. Can't recall the title, but two points really stood out. 1. He predicted that LED lights would take over most lighting uses. This was when LED lights were only little spots on some electronics components. 2. He said that the goal of any nation wanting to become more prosperous was to use MORE energy, not less.

Just finished one titled False Alarm by Bjorn Lomberg. His major point was that while he agreed that increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere would result in some warming, there are currently no real prospects for replacing fossil fuels other than nuclear. That being the case, we need to increase R&D in these areas in order to find sensible solutions while understanding that mitigating the effects of global warming would be a far, far more economical way to proceed.

tomder55
Jun 3, 2024, 01:55 AM
Another report about future energy needs from AI

AI is poised to drive 160% increase in data center power demand (goldmansachs.com) (https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/AI-poised-to-drive-160-increase-in-power-demand.html?chl=ds&plt=gcm&cid=31897120&sit=7047805&plc=395933221&cre=216234965)


US utilities will need to invest around $50 billion in new generation capacity just to support data centers alone. In addition, our analysts expect incremental data center power consumption in the US will drive around 3.3 billion cubic feet per day of new natural gas demand by 2030, which will require new pipeline capacity to be built.

But we have banned pipelines .

jlisenbe
Jun 3, 2024, 05:02 AM
There is a rather strange looking facility in our city, one which looks like it was designed by a middle school student, composed of a junky-looking two story structure with sixty or so large cooling units arranged outside of it. After a number of months of trying to find out, I discovered it is a bit-coin search facility. It uses so much power that the AC units are needed to keep the computers cool. I imagine the AI units will be quite similar. There is something about this that makes me uneasy.

tomder55
Jun 3, 2024, 05:33 AM
It is sobering and I don't hear a lot about it.

AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030, according to Wells Fargo. The forecast power demand from AI alone is seven times greater than New York City’s current annual electricity consumption of 48 terawatt hours.

AI to drive natural gas boom as utilities face surging data center demand (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/05/ai-could-drive-natural-gas-boom-as-utilities-face-surging-electric-demand.html)

Microsoft wants to go nuclear ;and is investing with OpenAI 's Sam Altman in fusion as a way forward.
Microsoft agrees to buy power from Sam Altman-backed Helion in 2028 (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/microsoft-agrees-to-buy-power-from-sam-altman-backed-helion-in-2028.html)

tomder55
Jun 10, 2024, 08:13 AM
bold prediction Sometime this summer there will be a news report with the government advising people to turn up their AC during peak hours to avoid blackouts at the same time they report about the government mandates to use EVs .

jlisenbe
Jun 10, 2024, 08:17 AM
If that happens, it will likely be the kiss of death for the Biden campaign.

tomder55
Jun 10, 2024, 08:21 AM
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