Graham Allison author of 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?' (a theory that says rising powers always challenge the big dog) wrote in 'The National Interest' an article entitled 'What Americans owe Ukraine'.


Imagine that two years ago—before Putin invaded Ukraine—someone had come to the US with a credible proposition to hobble Russia’s military threat to Europe for the decade ahead without the loss of a single American soldier. How much would Americans have been willing to invest in that initiative?

What Americans Owe Ukraine | The National Interest (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/politics/what-americans-owe-ukraine-209422)

The real question is what has this proxy war cost Ukraine ?

The real answer is too much.
Allison's definition of victory is fighting Russia until it will negotiate with Ukraine to end the war. But the only thing that is preventing that outcome now is the willingness of Zelensky and his patrons to go to the table.

Putin told Tucker Carlson that he saw the war ending in negotiations

Putin Calls on U.S. to ‘Negotiate’ on Ukraine in Tucker Carlson Interview - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/world/europe/putin-tucker-carlson-interview.html)

A gambit that the US rejects

U.S. Rejects Putin’s Latest Call for Ukraine Negotiations - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/09/us/politics/biden-putin-tucker-carlson-peace.html)

A move Zelensky summarily dismissed

'Leave our territory': Zelenskyy defiant as he rejects calls for early peace talks | CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-putin-1.6760139)

Time to look to the future.

Looking at the battlefield we see that Russia at a horrible cost pushed back Ukraine forces and took Avdiivka .They took massive casualties ;and like Bakhmut and Mariupol before it destroyed the town in the process . Mariupol is a strategic city . The other 2 towns were in my view pyric victories .
What the battlefield tells me is that Ukraine cannot push Russia out ;and Russia cannot defeat Ukraine Avddivka had a population of a little over 32,000 at the beginning of the war. Kyiv had a population of almost 3 million . Russia has twice had conscription ;has used surrogate armies ;and emptied it's prisons to provide fodder for the front.

And Ukraine has not been without it's victories. They have put a major hurt on the Russian Black Sea fleet ;downing ships and forcing the Russian Navy to evacuate at Crimea's Sevastopol . Russia has at best a tenuous hold on the eastern provinces of Ukraine . How are they possibly the threat that the war party in Washington calls them?



Time to look beyond the battlefield to the horizon. Russia is not taking all of Ukraine. It is not even desirable for them to do so. They don't want to rebuild the nation.... while the US and the EU is chomping at the bit to funnel more monopoly $$$$ into a reconstruction. And forget about governing western Ukraine . They would face an insurgency as long as they occupied it. Russia has no more incentive to fight. The Russian parts of Ukraine have mostly been annexed . It is extremely unlikely that NATO would ever invite Ukraine into the alliance. And as long as Russia is warring they are dependent on the likes of China Iran to prop up their faltering economy. (with a hat tip to Clueless Joe's energy policies and out continued purchasing of nuclear material from Moscow
Ending Dependence on Russia’s Nuclear Sector (fdd.org) (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/02/18/ending-dependence-on-russias-nuclear-sector/) )


Negotiations are possible and desirable. Ukraine will not be in a better position than now to come to the table. Continued combat will further weaken them.

What can we do ? Instead of our rhetoric ;demanding total defeat of Putin ;bringing war crime charges etc ,we should call his bluff and use leverage on Putin and pressure on Zelensky to get negotiations started .

That would be responsible statecraft ;something I don't believe Quid Pro Joe capable of .

More proof that Ukraine is a US proxy war.

The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YU0.d2MK.iNoiIMi9 3MOZ)

The Slimes was given a tour of a secret CIA bunker inside Ukraine.
Inside the bunker Ukraine Intel worked side by side with the CIA to hack Russia's military secure communications .
There they "helped train a new generation of Ukrainian spies who operated inside Russia, across Europe, and in Cuba and other places where the Russians have a large presence" .


It took root a decade ago, coming together in fits and starts under three very different U.S. presidents, pushed forward by key individuals who often took daring risks. It has transformed Ukraine, whose intelligence agencies were long seen as thoroughly compromised by Russia, into one of Washington’s most important intelligence partners against the Kremlin today.

Everyone is calling for a cease fire in Gaza now that Israel is poised to take out the last Hamas sanctuary.

Israel-Hamas cease-fire talks continue as mediators seek a deal before Ramadan : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2024/02/26/1233766185/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-rafah-netanyahu-mohammad-shtayyeh)

Hamas has softened some demands as Gaza hostage and ceasefire negotiations progress, sources say | CNN Politics (https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/26/politics/hamas-demands-gaza-negotiations/index.html)

Meanwhile in Ukraine the only talk of a negotiated settlement comes from Putin.

In Ukraine all the west does is talk of expanding the conflict

Slovak PM says EU, NATO members weighing sending troops to Ukraine – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/slovak-pm-fico-says-eu-and-nato-states-consider-sending-troops-to-ukraine/)

NATO Gives Ukraine the Go-Ahead to Cross Putin's Red Line (newsweek.com) (https://www.newsweek.com/nato-gives-ukraine-go-ahead-cross-putins-red-line-1872629)

Biden administration is leaning toward supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/biden-administration-leaning-supplying-ukraine-long-range-missiles-rcna139394)

France indirectly confirms it eyes possibility of donating warplanes to Ukraine (ukrinform.net) (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3832764-france-indirectly-confirms-it-eyes-possibility-of-donating-warplanes-to-ukraine.html)

Both wars civilians are being killed and towns destroyed .

Why the difference ?

I don't see how there can be a "win" for Ukraine. Even if the Russkies leave, they will leave behind an infrastructure that will require boatloads of resources and time to restore. It's a sad day for that country.

I hope the Israelis keep going. Those scumbags who carried out the attack on Israel need to be taken out.

All true . But why is the west gung ho for one war and not the other ?

The anti-Semites are making their voices heard re Israel.

They came out in Michigan. Over 100,000 primary voters selected "uncommitted " to protest Clueless Joe's support for Israel.

Victoria Nuland ;the emperor's point person in US interference in the Ukraine elections that ultimately led to the war in Ukraine is mercifully retiring . Don't let the door hit you on the way out . If there is a such a thing as a war crime ;she should be charged . In fact she has had her bloody hands in every US intervention .She served as Cheney's Iraq War advisor. She was instrumental in NATO expansion. She personally ran US Ukraine interference for the Emperor and Quid .

Her husband is neo-con Robert Kagan. The only time in recent decades that she had no role was in Trump's term. Even then she worked closely with the Trump impeachment over Ukraine policy.

Watch Glenn Greenwald 's scathing documentary about Nuland .

Unmasking the Destructive Career of Neocon-Monster Victoria Nuland—Now Second-in-Command of Biden’s State Department | SYSTEM UPDATE #130 (rumble.com) (https://rumble.com/v37gwwo-system-update-130.html)

What would it take to turn the tide in Ukraine's favor ? Would the $60 billion Clueless Joe wants Congress to pass make a difference ? Ukraine says it needs a minimum 4 million 155 mm shells a year and could need up to 7 million The US doubled our production and can only make 360,000 . It would not be possible to meet their goals even if we were to meet the ambitious goal of 100,000 a month .

Army aims to double 155mm shell production by October - Defense One (https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2024/02/army-aims-double-155mm-shell-production-october/393943/)

Even with Europe producing shells ; Ukraine would be supplied with less than Russia produces.

It takes Europe at least a year to fill a Ukrainian order for artillery shells - Defense One (https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/02/newly-ordered-european-155mm-shells-take-year-or-more-reach-ukraine-estonian-official-says/394146/)



Ukraine needs more troops . That we can't provide them without US troops on the ground......in other words we would have to fight Russia in a war.

Can Ukraine Find New Soldiers Without Decimating a Whole Generation? - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/11/world/europe/ukraine-demographics.html)

But but but .............making more arms for Ukraine is good for American business.

What a disgusting thought. Prolonging a lost cause war because it benefits us economically .
And yet that is what the Dems and the war party try to sell us.

What the U.S. Has to Gain from Supporting Ukraine | Yale Insights (https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/what-the-us-has-to-gain-from-supporting-ukraine)

Aiding Ukraine is a strategic investment, not charity - Atlantic Council (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/aiding-ukraine-is-a-strategic-investment-not-charity/)

Why the U.S. Has the Most to Gain From Supporting Ukraine | TIME (https://time.com/6694915/ukraine-aid-bill-what-united-states-gains/)

The stated goal of Zelensky is to gain back all of Ukraine territory. This is delusional. Their best defense is to build a defensive line comparable to the one Russia built to withstand the Ukraine offensive. Then go to the negotiation table and get the best deal possible. As time goes on they lose their leverage.
And it certainly does not help when Clueless says Putin can't be negotiated with ;is a war criminal who must be removed from power.

U.S. Rejects Putin’s Latest Call for Ukraine Negotiations - The New York Times(nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/09/us/politics/biden-putin-tucker-carlson-peace.html)

U.S. Rejects Putin’s Latest Call for Ukraine Negotiations - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/09/us/politics/biden-putin-tucker-carlson-peace.html)

The West is close to admitting their strategy for Ukraine has failed. What's next ? Some nations like France ;the Nordik and Baltic states and Poland may opt for direct intervention.

Macron refuses to rule out putting troops on ground in Ukraine in call to galvanise Europe | Ukraine | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/27/french-president-emmanuel-macron-ukraine-french-ground-troops)

I sense this is bluster or Macron's provocative comments to stir up debate .. I see no indication that Europe is ready to commit boots on the ground.

The timing may be everything. If Russia has a breakthrough and an advance on Kyiv before the elections , then maybe Quid Pro Joe would green light some US and NATO direct intervention too given his desire to look tough.

The US is not threatened But the nations I mentioned are. What is still missing from them is involvement in peace talks . Sadly it is Russia and China talking peace.

Macron refuses to rule out putting troops on ground in Ukraine in call to galvanise Europe | Ukraine | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/27/french-president-emmanuel-macron-ukraine-french-ground-troops)


China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis (fmprc.gov.cn) (https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html)

The timing may be everything. If Russia has a breakthrough and an advance on Kyiv before the elections , then maybe Quid Pro Joe would green light some US and NATO direct intervention too given his desire to look tough.We better keep our wits about us. We have no business getting that involved in this deal.

Here is a headline litterally minutes after a NYC jury convicted Trump


Biden gives Ukraine permission to carry out limited strikes within Russia using US weapons | CNN Politics (https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/30/politics/biden-ukraine-limited-strikes-russia/index.html)


President Joe Biden has given permission to Ukraine (https://www.cnn.com/world/europe/ukraine) to strike inside Russian territory with American munitions......The loosening of the restrictions marks a break from long-standing policy and comes amid growing international pressure from close US allies......Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly signaled a willingness to change the administration’s tact this week when he noted that the US could “adapt and adjust” its position.

Quid says that Bibi is extending the Gaza war for political purposes

Joe Biden: Fair to think Benjamin Netanyahu extending war for political reasons (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4701966-biden-netanyahu-prolonging-war-political-reasons/)

Could the same be said about Quid.....that he is helping extend the Ukraine war for political purposes ?

Biden to meet with Zelensky in Normandy and at next week’s G7, White House says | CNN Politics (https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/04/politics/biden-zelensky-meeting-normandy-g7/index.html)

As for who's prolonging the Gaza war ;Quid should look in the mirror . He has put undue pressure on Bibi to restrict his military . He has undermined a democratically elected government of Israel. He has threatened to withhold crucial weapons that Israel pays for. He has fed Hamas with propaganda . He absolutely lied about the latest cease fire proposal .

Today Quid made a slurring commitment to another aid package for Ukraine ....details to be announced .

WATCH: Ukraine's Zelenskyy asks Biden to lift U.S. limits on striking Russian military targets (youtube.com) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtHUYMHykZQ&t=4s)

There are 2 likely outcomes to the Ukraine war .

The first one is a Russia victory. The more likely one is a negotiated settlement that involves Ukraine territorial concessions ;probably a revoking of their request to enter NATO ;and possibly a disarmament of Ukraine. The third and least likely one is a win for Ukraine where they retain all their territory .

That has not changes since the begging of the war.

You can find throughout history where total destruction was avoidable with negotiation. Think Korea . The NORKs invaded and advanced down the peninsula. In 3 months time the US (ooopps I meant the UN) had pushed the NORKs back to the 38th parallel . The US then kept pushing .The Chi-coms intervened . 3 years later and 37,000 American soldiers sacrificed ;a cease fire ended the hostilities at the 38th parallel .


To Kam the Sham it is Ukraine victory at all costs .

Kamala Harris says Ukraine handing over territory is form of surrender, not peace | VOA News (youtube.com) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V78J2-i4E_w)

Trump has said negotiations is the only way and is in Ukraine's interests .


They’re locked into a situation. It’s sad. They just don’t know what to do. Because Ukraine is gone. It’s not Ukraine anymore. You can never replace those cities and towns. And you can never replace the dead people—so many dead people. Any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better.

WATCH: 'Ukraine is gone, it's not Ukraine anymore,' Trump says during campaign stop (youtube.com) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VU7S9BdRchM)