View Full Version : The Trouble
paraclete
Dec 17, 2014, 07:34 PM
Time for us to cast our gaze eastward and ponder the outcomes of the trouble with the rouble or ruble. It is declining so quickly in value that the russians will become like post WW1 Germany, they will need wheelbarrows to buy bread. Have you ever thought what a ruble is actually worth in real money? This problem promises to unleash another financial crisis, at least in Europe, as exports plummet and Russian money looks for a new home. This is a double wammy as santions and lower mineral prices, particularly oil, bite hard and capital flees, not even 17% interest rates will stop that. That the ninth largest economy in the world could be brought down so quickly gives the rest of us a clear warning. The G20 was looking to boost growth by 2% but that plan needs serious revision. Just holding the line at current levels will require deft management and we can expect the Russians to retreat from world markets to meet internal demand
I know another economy that is pondering the impacts of slowing economic growth and declining mineral prices and it isn't pretty right now. What to do? I wish I knew because I know there are some who don't.
tomder55
Dec 18, 2014, 03:09 AM
all we have to do is look at history and see what sanctions did with Japanese relations .
joypulv
Dec 18, 2014, 05:02 AM
Another revolution?
Now gov'ts and stock markets usually scramble to keep useful countries afloat, all for the good of the world economy. How useful is Russia? Europe needs Russia's oil. They don't like the sanctions.
And what is OPEC's goal in undercutting everyone else? Sticking it to US fracking, or sticking it to Russia, or both? If Russia, why? Crimea? The sheer audacity?
I don't see a solution any time soon.
OPEC will raise their prices eventually, but that's only part of this. I don't see the US lifting sanctions and I don't see Putin giving up Crimea. So yes, the average Russian will suffer. They already have been for months, as prices rise and rise.
Catsmine
Dec 18, 2014, 05:53 AM
You just described the flaws in planned economies, regardless of whether Vladimir or Janet Yellen does the planning. It's amusing how all the lofty liberal ideas of the 19th and 20th Centuries are failing: social engineering gives us Occupy vandals, standardized education gives us "Johnny can't read," rehabilitation gives us crime universities and people warehouses (same building), the Fed invents new names of numbers for America's debt while Russia gives us what they've always given - Cossacks.
ebaines
Dec 18, 2014, 12:29 PM
Putin brought it upon himself. Saudi Arabia isn't doing him any favors by flooding the market with oil. Not coincidentally the Venezuelan economy is also in the toilet, driven largely by the fall in oil prices. I'm not losing any sleep over either Russia's or Venezuela's woes.
paraclete
Dec 18, 2014, 01:50 PM
Putin is in deniel, the "West" is an empire, taking the star wars analogy, an evil empire and the seperatists, they are the good guys
Russian president Vladimir Putin says West behaving like 'empire'; reassures Russians over economy - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-19/putin-says-west-behaving-like-empire-as-russian-economy-slides/5977744)
There can be little doubt the west is denying the will of the people in Crimea after all they conducted a vote, the transition has been peaceful, but has he stopped to realise that lower oil prices must damage western government revenues too. The Saudi are pumping oil because they need money, they don't want to loose revenue and of course they are opportunist, it is a market and the venezuelians will just have to keep up. prices are down pump more oil, oh to be in a cartel in the morning
paraclete
Dec 18, 2014, 02:22 PM
all we have to do is look at history and see what sanctions did with Japanese relations .
Maybe Tom, but that little fracass was over the availability of oil, strange how history repeats itsself, Putin has the military mussle to make a mess of Europe, but that doesn't put him in touch with his enemy, it destroys his market. MAD is not an answer to anything, surely that lesson has been learned. I can't see him invading the US across the frozen wastes of Canada and the Arctic
Catsmine
Dec 18, 2014, 04:45 PM
I can't see him invading the US across the frozen wastes of Canada and the Arctic
No need. His old boss's predecessors invaded decades ago. Tanks are so expensive to ship overseas so they sent college professors. It's working quite well, don't you think?
paraclete
Dec 18, 2014, 05:33 PM
Please be specific Cats. Do you have evidence of a fifth column at work? All I see is a great deal of foolishness. Don't think that socialism has taken root in the US, you haven't exactly embraced the concept. I think the problem is that they forced the uneducated to migrate and increased the IQ of both countries. But then they had some bad experiences and lost a generation or two to war and purges and lowered the IQ of their country in the process. Now you have a population who thinks in ethnic terms. We have forgotten that Kiev, a thousand years ago, was the flower of Russian culture and Kiev is no longer in Russia. They want it back. It's in the blood and they spilt a great deal of blood for it. As Juresalem is to the Jewish mindset, Kiev is to the Russian mindset
Catsmine
Dec 18, 2014, 06:22 PM
Do you have evidence of a fifth column at work?
How about one of their handlers? Stanislav Lunev - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Lunev)
Or an interview https://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=4CDAB99FAB5980BA (warning: several long videos)
Hanlon's razor sometimes does slip.
paraclete
Dec 18, 2014, 10:29 PM
Are you sure you spelt that fellows name right? Seems to me he uses the same play book as the iraqi dissidents did. Disinformation is a powerful tool and maybe he succeeded
Catsmine
Dec 19, 2014, 02:36 AM
Are you sure you spelt that fellows name right?
Which one? The only one I spelled was Hanlon, who used a Heinlein quote for a book title in 1980.
paraclete
Dec 19, 2014, 04:58 AM
Which one? The only one I spelled was Hanlon, who used a Heinlein quote for a book title in 1980.
Lunev I thought it should read Luney
Catsmine
Dec 19, 2014, 05:55 AM
Disinformation is not the only thing the KGB is good for. They're also very very good at Humint, or spies.
paraclete
Dec 19, 2014, 07:24 AM
Yes they were very good at their game probably still are
tomder55
Dec 19, 2014, 07:56 AM
but if you bring this stuff up you are subject to instant villification and branded a McCarthyite (even though he was generally spot on in his charges ) .
The fifth column is alive and well.
Take for example the fact that the protest signs in Ferguson and NYC have the signature 'revcom.us' on the bottom of the signs. Well just for fun I went to revcom on the web and found this :
Revolution revcom.us (http://www.revcom.us/)
It is the web site of an avowed Maoist named Bob Avakian who is the Chairman of the 'Revolutionary Communist Party, USA'.
Bob Avakian - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Avakian)
This is a guy who firmly believes in the dictatorship of the proletariat to transform society . The masses don't know who is behind the scenes ;providing the posters ,egging them on ;and perhaps providing agents to provoke the more extreme . If you asked anyone at these protests who Bob Avakian is ,you would get a blank stare.
paraclete
Dec 19, 2014, 02:03 PM
Yes I think I've got one now