Hello:

We're looking at Putin through the prism of Iraq. Yes, that was the WRONG war, at the WRONG time, for the WRONG reasons... Yes, it made us gunshy. Yes, we're war weary. I believe I spoke about this particular malaise AFTER our wrongheaded war.. That's a VERY dangerous place for us to be..

Because, Putin isn't Ben Laden. He's a REAL bad guy, with a REAL army, with REAL ambitions of reconstituting the Soviet Union, and LINING his troops up on Europe's eastern border.

The KEY to a successful military strategist, is the ability to CHANGE your tactics when the situation on the ground CHANGES... The other day, I was one of the people saying we couldn't DO anything.. It's too far away. It's Putin's backyard. It's none of our business..

That was when I believed the Crimea was his only goal. But, the situation on the ground has CHANGED. He's poised to swallow Ukraine, and we simply cannot let him. We need to view Putin through the prism of WWII. Yes, war is hard.

God DAMN George W. Bush and D*ck Cheney.

excon

PS> Will the person who changed WWIII to that gobbeldy gook in the title line, CHANGE it back??

Ex

I don't think there will be a world war over this, the reason is the world is war weary, 13 years of war and Crimea is afterall the will of the people. The government of the Ukraine needs to demonstrate their legitamancy and hold elections, then negotiate with Putin to avoid any incursions. We are not talking about another Austria here, Putin has just played that card in the Crimea, the Ukraine is the equivalent of Poland. Putin can't afford a war anymore than anyoneelse can. He faces a world much more prepared than the allies were in 1939

What has happened is the Ukraininan military forces are being asked to leave Crimea, admittantly the invitation has been delivered in a bully fashion but reports suggest they havn't recieved instructions to fight, or go. This would suggest the government in Kiev isn't really in change and a vacuum is the worst situation possible because it heightens the possibility of confrontation

Blame the system for the title. It only allows one cap per word! The Russians and the Ukrainians will sort things out. The took Georgia back.

The Russians don't like instability and any suggestion that government can be overthrown by a mob

Blame the system for the title. It only allows one cap per word!

That is just a nonsense Tal and all to prevent emphasis, there are situations where capitalisation is valid, do we have to start developing work arounds to these silly rules

And we elected the squishy type of leaders who project weakness everywhere they go. Note that right after Sec State JF Kerry said the Monroe Doctrine doesn't apply anymore ,Putin is looking to put Russian bases near America's soft underbelly .

There was another JFK who put a real red line against that sort of Russian expansion. He didn't have to fight a war to get them to stand down. Neither do we. Project strength. Putin does . You speak of his military as if it is our equal . It's not even close except for perhaps the nuke equalizer. But he projects strength.

While the world looks to other nations like Moldava as Putin's next target ,I see the prize for Russia will be Azerbaijan. This neighbor of Georgia is an energy power . It has threatened to build a pipeline to Europe bypassing Russia. This would end Russia's dominant energy power and influence over Europe (of course our drilling and exporting LNG would help also ).
He will use 2 pretext for his intervention . The 1st being the canard he plays in Ukraine about "ethic Russians" being persecuted. The 2nd will be the real threat that Iran intends to radicalize the Muslim population there .

President Ilham Aliyev has stood firm against both Russian and Iranian meddling. Both nations intend to undermine his government . Again the western powers will have no adequate response.

http://en.trend.az/news/politics/2253382.html

Hello tom:
And we elected the squishy type of leaders who project weakness everywhere they go.Yeah, yeah, yeah... That's the party line. But, I'm not speaking for my party. I'm telling you what I think needs to happen.

You say we won't do anything, but you don't say what we SHOULD do. Me? I told you. Let's start with 82nd Airborne going in.

excon

I knew it was George Bushes fault would get into this before long. Or Cheney despite their being out of office for over 6 years now.

At least Putin didn't pull stunts when we didn't have a certified wuss in office. I wonder if this was part of the , "I'll have more flexibilitiy when I get reelected" President Wuss was caught telling the Russians on an open mike.

Maybe President Wuss can blame this on some youtube video like he did Benghazi.

Hello smoothy:

At least Putin didn't pull stunts when we didn't have a certified wuss in office.So, Georgia doesn't ring a bell..

But, it's clear, NONE of you wingers have a clue about to to do.. All you got is flapping gums, as usual. What? You don't want WAR? It's a very right wing thing, you know.

excon

Or Cheney despite their being out of office for over 6 years now.I know eh? It's like those people who blame the middle east conflict on stuff that happened years, decades, hundreds of years ago! They don't get it like you get it.

Yeah, yeah, yeah... That's the party line. But, I'm not speaking for my party. I'm telling you what I think needs to happen.

You say we won't do anything, but you don't say what we SHOULD do. Me? I told you. Let's start with 82nd Airborne going in.

excon

I don't think it's necessary . As you know ,we never got into a hot war during the Cold War. We came close and we fought a couple proxy wars ,but it never came to blows.
What we need to do is recognize that what Romney said was true ... that Russia is our biggest strategic problem. Heck ;Carter went into his Presidency with the same illusions about them that the emperor had. But even he learned and adjusted. He supported rebels in Afghanistan and boycotted the Moscow Olympics.
Russia is an economic basketcase that had a short burst of prosperity because of the oil price boom . Instead of confronting his country's economic issues ,he resorts to extreme nationalism (thus the plight of ethnic Russians in the border states ) . With REAL sanctions we can hurt him without firing a shot . We can put the missile system in Poland that we promised Poland before the reign of the Obots. We can redeploy troops out of German beer halls into new bases in new NATO nations . We can bring American energy into the European market.
Why start with 82nd Airborne when he can be beat without firing a shot ?
That's what Sun Tzu would do.

I know eh? It's like those people who blame the middle east conflict on stuff that happened years, decades, hundreds of years ago! They don't get it like you get it.
THe middle east is inhabited by inbred troglodytes... fighting is all they have ever been able to do. And thanks to Islam...its all they will ever be able to do.

Hello smoothy:
So, Georgia doesn't ring a bell..

But, it's clear, NONE of you wingers have a clue about to to do.. All you got is flapping gums, as usual. What? You don't want WAR? It's a very right wing thing, you know.

excon

We aren't in the White house either... are we. We have lots of Ideas... but President Wuss ignores all of them.

The UN seems to have been uncharacteristicly quite since all of this started.

Obamas hatred towards our own Military and his gutting of it.. has nothing to do with any of this?... like signaling to the Russians that we won't or more like can't do anything in response?

You above many others should understand the military stratagy of deterance can eliminate the need for an actual offensive action. Take away that deterance and you welcome the other side to act on their impulses. And President Wuss has done nothing but project what a wuss he really is... so much so everyone laughs at him... nobody fears him. Not anyone outside the USA anyway... more people here fear his anti-American tirades and actions, than the rest of the worlds population combined.

If it didn't work for Georgia, why would it work in the Crimean?

re Bush and Cheney . You can talk all you want to about the war against jihadistan and how we are "war weary " . That is a convenient excuse used by the emperor to justify inaction ,lead from behind ,and disarming the nation.

But Putin hasn't used them as examples of justification for his actions. He has however used our use of massive armed forces and aerial bombardment to carve out a piece of Serbia for radical Muslims. Bush may be at fault for recognizing Kosovo after the fact . But it was the "neo-con" Clintonoids who led the war in the Balkans. Yes Putin indeed took a lesson from us and cites it frequently in justifications of his war against the Chechens ;his carving up of Georgia ,and his recent seizure of Crimea. He also frequently mentions our betrayal of him after he agreed in the UNSC to limited use of no fly zones in Libya for civilian protection....which turned into a full scale bombing against Q Daffy's ground forces ;and the arming of jihadists to do regime change.

This is but one skirmish of many Tom, in a world full of them. I mean if you think we should go in shooting say so. Move some Armies maybe? We haven't taken care of the warriors coming from 10/15, tours of war in the middle east yet.

Here is another cold hard reality . There is a chance for a unified Western response IF THE US LEADS . But I frankly don't find that likely . The EU is fractured and burdened by one economic basket case nation after another . Why they wanted to add another one in the Ukraine is beyond me.

Europe also lacks an adequate military defense due to a decision they made long ago to largely disarm and let the US carry the heavy load. Like the town folks in a Clint Eastwood Western, they hate and despise the sheriff until the time they need him.

This is but one skirmish of many Tom, in a world full of them. I mean if you think we should go in shooting say so. Move some Armies maybe? We haven't taken care of the warriors coming from 10/15, tours of war in the middle east yet.
clearly you haven't been reading my replies to this post . Show me where I suggested that we should take any military response. Ex is the one that sounds like McCain.

Let's start with 82nd Airborne going in.

excon

Light infantry against SpecOps? You've been away too long. Yes those "unidentified" armed soldiers at the airport were Speznatz.

They kicked Russia out of the G8.

They kicked Russia out of the G8.That's a good start... now if they take away their veto in the UN...

The government of the Ukraine needs to demonstrate their legitamancy and hold elections, then negotiate with Putin to avoid any incursions.
Clete . The Ukraine gvt will never be given a chance at legitimacy . Putin will undermine it . Don't you remember what he did to Victor Yushchenko ?

BTW ,the last time a nation's Parliament ousted a President who was acting unconstitutionally was in Honduras . The emperor also supported the rogue President against the elected government that ousted him for acting unconstitutionally. You think Putin forgets that?

Tom I don't think Putin forgets anything that is why he called your bluff in Crimea. Look, he knows the US is a toothless tiger, for you to act takes a tremendous act of will. He has the ability to act unilaterally, your President does not. I don't think he is foolish enough to start a war but he will press around the edges and particularly where he thinks he has the support of the population. He has a large military, bigger than anything you could put on the ground to match him in the short term and he knows this, so if he fights, he is fighting from a position of strength, where as, logistically, you are hampered. But he has a lot to loose, particularly economically. Losing his market in Europe would devastate his economy so let's not talk this up too strongly

Losing his market in Eu
rope would devastate his economy so let's not talk this up too strongly

all the more reason to put the pressure on him economically . There is his vulnerability . You shouldn't look at military strength in just numbers . Our military is the best at what they do ;has superior equipment ;and is battle hardened fighting the hardest kind of fighting .. counter-insurgency.

Whilst you say you have superior equipment, you still have to get it there, Russia and the Ukraine are not as assessable as Iraq, can't see you using Turkey as a staging area and Russia would quickly put a stop to a naval bombarment as you used in Iraq and Libya. You have stealth aircraft but again, distance is a factor. Russia is the one country who might mirror some of your capabilities and whilst your troops are battle hardened, what toll has that taken of you? You should not think in terms of aggressive action. Sanctions may work, but Russia has a long history of overcoming your sanctions and is much more integrated in the world economy these days You have numerical advantage in personell and various weapon systems but Russia also has advantage in other weapon systems but logistics is the factor; putting troops on the ground

The situation in Crimea will not become WWIII. Now that Ukranians are resisting, Vladimir will PROBABLY not get what he wants. Those are just my opinions and I could be wrong. I wouldn't worry.

So you ask what we should do ?


Lithuania’s energy minister, Jaroslav Neverovic, pleaded in emotional terms for U.S. help, saying his country is “100 percent” dependent on Russia for natural gas and has to pay 30 percent higher prices for it than other countries in Europe.
“This is not just unfair, this is abuse,” Neverovic told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Lawmakers from both parties used the hearing to urge the Obama administration to speed up natural gas exports as a hedge against the possibility that Russia could cut off its supply of gas to Ukraine and other countries.
Four Central European nations — Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic — made formal requests for U.S. exports as Moscow moved to annex part of the Ukraine. Concerns about energy security threaten the region's residents on a daily basis, ambassadors to the four countries said in letters to House and Senate leaders.

http://news.yahoo.com/senate-hears-pleas-gas-exports-europe-212641247--politics.html
This is a close to a no brainer as there is .

commercial arrangements are commercial arrangements. Tell me, Tom, where in your nation are goods sold in small quantity at the same price as goods sold in large quantity? I'll bet it doesn't happen often. What we have here is someone trying to panic the US into action. If they want to buy gas from some other source, fine, but do they have the inferstructure to do so? Who is going to provide that inferstructure short term? They shoudl have thought about the implications when they signed on. The reality is we are all paying more for gas and oil products, so I don't get upset about an obscure country on the Russian border paying more for gas because they don't have the industrial might to negotiate better contracts

forget prices. Who wants their supply shut off ? I lived with Arab boycotts twice in the 1970s and it wasn't pleasant ....and we have domestic sources. These countries are completely reliant on the Russian supply ;and that in turn dictates policy . You want to know how to get energy to these countries ? Anyway you can ... by road ,by train.. Poland has ports . The Port of Klaipėda in Lithuania is ice free . This is not only a short term concern. It should be US policy to export energy to our friends not only for strategic concerns ;but also as part of regular trade policy.

Yes go for it, but understand when you go down that road you may have to commit a lot more than you think. look if there is a new market going we would like some of that too