PDA

View Full Version : Consecutive probability issue


Jmwm858
Jan 28, 2012, 08:50 AM
Okay so my problem is that I can't find a probability equation that takes into account this situation or any information on it. Any threads of information or direction (or an answer) would be greatly appreciated.

This is the problem;
If I threw 3 balls at a person. The chance of dodging all 3 using consecutive probability 12.5% (assuming for simplicity it's a 50/50 chance of dodging)

However the chance of dodging all 3 balls thrown at a person one after each other is the same percentage.

This doesn't seem to correlate with reality is their any formula or probability paradox that directly relates with trying to take into account a situation like this?

ebaines
Jan 30, 2012, 08:29 AM
This is the problem;
If I threw 3 balls at a person. The chance of dodging all 3 using consecutive probability 12.5% (assuming for simplicity it's a 50/50 chance of dodging)

So far so good - if a person has a 50% chance of dodging any one throw, then the chance of him dodging 3 in a row is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 0.1275. This assumes that the probability of getting hit is independent of what's happened previously.


However the chance of dodging all 3 balls thrown at a person one after each other is the exact same percentage.


I don't understand why you say this - please explain. What do you mean by "is the exact same percentage" - same as what?