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View Full Version : Polling in the stretch run


tomder55
Sep 29, 2024, 12:04 PM
Now is the time to take polling numbers more seriously. Although the polling organizations typically skew results to their preferred biases; more than anything ,they stake their reputation on accuracy in the end.
That is why you are seeing a closing of the gap.

CNN, Quinnipiac ,and Gallup have some alarming news for Kam the Sham. I'll let the compliant press give you the news.

This is what CNN Scott Jennings had to say .


“Look, she’s got a major problem: It’s Joe Biden and the fact that she’s his vice president. In our CNN survey yesterday, 51% of registered voters said that Trump had a successful presidency. Only 37% said the same about Biden and Harris. A lot of that has to do with the economy and it mostly has to do with inflation,” Jennings said. “And so she’s yet to look into a television camera and say, ‘Here are two or three things that Joe Biden did that I disagreed with and I would do it differently and I have learned from that.’ She’s effectively running on a continuation of the same. People don’t like the same and they remember Trump better. I don’t know how you expect to win under those circumstances.”

CNN’s Scott Jennings Suggests Harris Can’t ‘Expect To Win’ As His Network’s Poll Shows Voters ‘Remember Trump Better’ (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-s-scott-jennings-suggests-harris-can-t-expect-to-win-as-his-network-s-poll-shows-voters-remember-trump-better/ar-AA1rbS77)

The nervous campaign this morning is the Harris campaign. They’re not where they need to be with young voters, they’re not where they need to be with voters of color, working class voters,” he said. “They’re not achieving the margins that they need, that Joe Biden was getting in 2020 and Trump’s base is immovable and right now, his administration and him personally are more popular than they have ever been. It’s a problem.”

Rasmussen who only polls likely voters gives Trump a slight lead . Election 2024 - Rasmussen Reports® (https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2024/election2024)


Again Fetterman is sounding the alarm in Pennsylvania.

John Fetterman: Donald Trump's hold in Pennsylvania 'deepened' after shooting (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4889312-fetterman-trumps-special-place-in-pennsylvania-deepened-after-shooting/)

“I also want people to understand, you know, and it’s not science, but there’s energy, and there’s kinds of anger on the ground in Pennsylvania, and people are very committed,” Fetterman said. “Trump is going to be strong and … we have to respect that.”

John Fetterman sounds alarm in Pennsylvania: ‘Trump is going to be strong’ - Washington Examiner (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/3161716/fetterman-sounds-alarm-pennsylvania-trump-strong/)

tomder55
Sep 29, 2024, 02:20 PM
In Michigan Rep Elissa Slotkin's internal polling reports that Kam the Sham is in trouble. Must be that EV mandate .

Scoop: Rep. Elissa Slotkin warns Harris is "underwater" in Michigan (axios.com) (https://www.axios.com/2024/09/29/michigan-senate-race-slotkin-harris)

tomder55
Oct 13, 2024, 05:28 AM
Trump leads in 6 0f 7 swing states according to Real Clear Politics average of the polls

Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average (realclearpolling.com) (https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states)

But all are within the margin of error . As you know ,the Dems tend to" find "the votes necessary

jlisenbe
Oct 13, 2024, 05:31 AM
But all are within the margin of error . As you know ,the Dems tend to" find "the votes necessaryExactly true.

tomder55
Oct 29, 2024, 05:40 AM
RCP average of polls shows Trump has taken a commanding lead in the electoral college race. This assumes that the toss up states would go to who leads them now.

2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States | RealClearPolling (https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college)

He is making some presumed Dem wins interesting

Donald Trump Takes Shock Lead Over Kamala Harris in New Hampshire Poll - Newsweek (https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-takes-shock-lead-over-kamala-harris-new-hampshire-poll-1975833)

There is even talk of him winning the popular vote.

Donald Trump 'Could Make History' and Break 20-Year Record—Election Analyst - Newsweek (https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-popular-vote-kamala-harris-polls-1975357)

jlisenbe
Oct 29, 2024, 11:35 AM
Let's see what other "November surprises" the dems come up with. It is possible that all of that is backfiring on them.

tomder55
Oct 31, 2024, 12:17 PM
Final Poll Flips to Donald Trump in Four-Point Swing From Kamala Harris (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/final-poll-flips-to-donald-trump-in-four-point-swing-from-kamala-harris/ar-AA1thJAA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=b78c63b0296044c8b2895740d5e56b08&ei=18)