December 2 marked the 200th anniversary of the Monroe Doctrine. It is (was) a policy that the US would oppose intervention in the Western Hemisphere by foreign nations outside the Americas .

Venezuela with the backing of their kindred of Caine (Cuba ;Russia :China ;Iran ) has decided it wants to carve a piece of Guyana for itself. TheEsequibo region in western Guyana, accounts for 2/3 of the country’s territory, 16 percent of its population . Seizing it would give Venezuelan dictator Maduro claim to offshore oil riches that were discovered in 2015 ,and that he covets.

Venezuelans have been told for 100 years that the land rightfully belongs to them even though arbiters had presumably settled the issue.

Schomburgk Line - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schomburgk_Line)

Last week Venezuelans overwhelming voted to support the seizing of the territory.


Venezuela holds referendum on oil-rich Guyana region: Four things to know | Politics News | Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/3/venezuela-holds-referendum-on-oil-rich-guyana-region-four-things-to-know)

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has warned him not to seize the territory. 2020, the ICJ ruled that it had jurisdiction to hear the dispute but it has yet to decide on the merits of the case.

The Court to hold public hearings from Monday 23 to Friday 27 March 2020 (icj-cij.org) (https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/171/171-20200206-PRE-01-00-EN.pdf)

It recently told Venezuela to "refrain" from action.

World Court orders Venezuela to refrain from action in border dispute with Guyana | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/world-court-orders-venezuela-refrain-action-border-dispute-with-guyana-2023-12-01/)

Yesterday Maduro unveiled a new map of Venezuela that included the disputed territory.

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro orders creation of new state and map including land from Guyana | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/americas/venezuelas-president-orders-creation-of-new-state-and-map-including-land-from-guyana/index.html)

Yesterday the US announced joint military drills with Guyana.

U.S. announces military drills with Guyana amid dispute over oil-rich region with Venezuela - CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/guyana-venezuela-conflict-essequibo-oil-us-military-flight-drills/)

But what weapons do we have to give them ? All our surplus has gone to Ukraine.

And Clueless Joe is counting on Venezuela to pump baby pump to keep oil prices low going into 2024 elections.



U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken welcomed President Nicolas Maduro's electoral concessions but said Washington has given him until the end of November to begin lifting bans on opposition presidential candidates and start releasing political prisoners and "wrongfully detained" Americans.

US broadly eases Venezuela oil sanctions after election deal | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/#:~:text=WASHINGTON%2C%20Oct%2018%20(Reuters),Trum p%2Dera%20restrictions%20on%20Caracas.)


About those so called election concessions ? Maduro has already reneged .

Opinion | On Venezuela and Maduro, Antony Blinken cannot remain silent - The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/06/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-blinken/)


Open questions .
Will the US intervene if Venezuela attempts to seize the territory ? Will Cuba China and Russia intervene ? We know they have a military presence in Venezuela.

Examining Russian and Chinese Military Operations in Venezuela - Diálogo Américas (dialogo-americas.com) (https://dialogo-americas.com/articles/examining-russian-and-chinese-military-operations-in-venezuela/)

Will Brazil intervene and plunge the region into war ?

Brazil deploys troops to Venezuela border (bbc.com) (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67645018)

Last week Venezuelans overwhelming voted to support the seizing of the territory.A completely stupid population.

The aggravating thing to me is that we have plenty of oil reserves to be able to influence world markets on our own IF we would develop them.

As to fighting, I hope we stay out of it.

As to fighting, I hope we stay out of it.

And Vivek asks ; 'name a region of Guyana you want American troops to defend '.

It may be all bluster and saber rattling . But if they perceive US weakness then Maduro may attempt to exploit it.


Remember ;the Gulf War was completely avoidable except that Saddam misread signals he got from US ambassador April Glaspie .


U.S. Ambassador Glaspie - We have no opinion on your Arab - Arab conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait. Secretary (of State James) Baker has directed me to emphasize the instruction, first given to Iraq in the 1960's, that the Kuwait issue is not associated with America.

APRIL GLASPIE TRANSCRIPT (harbornet.com) (http://www.harbornet.com/folks/theedrich/hive/Misc/April_Glaspie.htm)

And Vivek asks ; 'name a region of Guyana you want American troops to defend '.Clever!!

It can be a tough call. We like to say we are not the world's policeman, and yet we want to find reasons to intervene in every international dispute on the globe.

A couple of flashbacks

1895 was the year of the last conflict between the US and Great Britain that could've led to war. The US sorta intervened in a conflict between England and Venezuela that had lasted for 50 years.
You can read about it in Wiki

The US invoked an expanded view of the Monroe Doctrine

By 17 December 1895, Cleveland delivered an address to the United States Congress reaffirming the Monroe Doctrine and its relevance to the dispute.[9] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_crisis_of_1895#cite_note-Humphreys-10) The address asked Congress to fund a commission to study the boundaries between Venezuela and British Guiana, and declared it the duty of the United States "to resist by every means in its power as a willful aggression upon its rights and interests" any British attempt to exercise jurisdiction over territory the United States judged Venezuelan

Venezuelan crisis of 1895 - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_crisis_of_1895#:~:text=Despite%20the%20 public%20belligerence%2C%20neither,established%20o n%201%20January%201896.)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/Twist-British-Tail.jpg

Neither side wanted to go to war over the issue.

On December 18, 1895, Congress approved $100,000 for the United States Commission on the Boundary Between Venezuela and British Guiana. It was formally established on 1 January 1896

The trouble was that the they really just punted on the territorial dispute.

Fast Forward to the 1960s Guyana was due to gain independence from England but the Kennedy /Johnson Administrations feared the country would go commie [FONT=Alegreya, sans-serif][COLOR=#000000] under the leadership of Cheddi Jagan, a Marxist who was very popular among the south Asian (India ) majority..The CIA to the rescue .

They along with AFL -CIO fomented chaos that included labor unrest; and race riots This helped depose Jagan in 1964 .

CIA Involvement in Guyana - West Indian Diplomacy ® (https://westindiandiplomacy.com/cia-involvement-in-guyana/)



But that was then . War will only happen if like in 1990 Sadam tested Bush policy and found it wanting . Or Argentina's Galtieri tested Margaret Thatcher . Would a show of strength be unwarranted ?