View Full Version : Joe Biden Saved Social Security
Athos
Feb 10, 2023, 10:37 AM
“Some” Republicans (not all, as Joe said) see a big pot of money and they want to spend it. It is called Social Security.) They are Russian MAGA politicians (those who defend and praise Putin).
Joe Biden just ran circles around them to protect it using their venal and disgusting behavior against them. He did it, and “some” Republicans didn't notice.
It isn't that the Republicans want to *END* Social Security; they want to keep making everyone pay into the system, then funnel all of that money into private funds and stocks instead of treasury bonds. They want their big donors, such as banks, Wall Street investment firms and hedge funds, to be able to get a slice of that very big pie.
Of course, doing that would eventually result in less money for seniors and the disabled which will inevitably kill off Social Security entirely. But until they kill the Golden Goose, those Republican donors will profit handsomely, and Republicans will be able to shake their heads and say, “See? We told you that government programs never work.” “Some” point out Donald Trump does not collect social security, which is not true - he does.
In the State of the Union the world saw how Russia’s MAGA politicians have come unhinged but it also showed how stupid they are. Biden mentioned their plans to cash out Social Security and they screamed it is a lie, they would never do that.
HOWEVER – – Sen. Ron Johnson is on record as wanting to authorize Social Security on an annual basis. “Some” go for 5 year sunset laws for ALL programs, including Social Security. Rick Scott from Florida whose tenure as CEO of HCA was marked by settlements of nearly $2 billion in Medicare fraud – the largest fraud settlement in US history. He took the Fifth Amendment 75 times during his deposition. Now he wants to “sunset” Social Security. Sen. Mike Lee, “It will be my objective to phase out Social Security, to pull it up from the roots and get rid of it.”
Biden then said the words that proved he has their number. “Good, I am glad to see your minds have changed on that, so you won't try to take it away this congress” or words to that effect.
Biden pulled a fast one that is probably still to be explained to the Republican idiots like Greene and Boebert. to name two of the more notorious.
jlisenbe
Feb 10, 2023, 11:01 AM
then funnel all of that money into private funds and stocks instead of treasury bonds. They want their big donors, such as banks, Wall Street investment firms and hedge funds, to be able to get a slice of that very big pie.That doesn't make sense. Since SS is a pay as you go program, most of SS revenues go out as payments to current recipients. In other words, it's not available to be "funneled" into any type of investment. The relatively small amount of money that does not go to recipients is just mixed in with general revenues and spent on other fed programs. Some, a relatively small portion, does end up in a fund laughably called a "trust fund".
T Bills are currently returning a little over 4%. Inflation is running around 8%. The math does not look encouraging.
Even CNN acknowledges that something has to be done soon with SS.
Medicare hospital insurance is already running out of money
The cold, hard, actuarial truth is that we don’t need Scott’s plan to force a debate over Medicare funding, because within five years, the trust fund that funds Medicare hospital coverage (Medicare Part A) will have a zero balance.
That’s right. In their annual report, released last June, Medicare’s trustees reported that the hospital insurance trust fund will bring in $412.6 billion in 2023. It will spend $415.6 billion. That means it will spend $3 billion more than it generates in revenue this year.
The hospital insurance trust fund will be completely gone by 2028, which means the government has five years to change the equation. Read the Medicare trustees report (https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf).
An ever-so-slightly more optimistic view from the Congressional Budget Office (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58147#_idTextAnchor244) is that the hospital insurance trust fund will be depleted by 2030.
What happens if the trust fund is depleted?
Here’s what the trustees say: “If assets were depleted, Medicare could pay health plans and providers of Part A services only to the extent allowed by ongoing tax revenues—and these revenues would be inadequate to fully cover costs. Beneficiary access to health care services could rapidly be curtailed.”
That’s short on specifics, but it’s clear Medicare is warning that without the trust fund, some services would be cut quickly.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/medicare-social-security-what-matters/index.html
tomder55
Feb 10, 2023, 11:44 AM
Yeah I pointed out how he baited the Repubs about SS here
NY Slimes scaremongering again - Page 2 (askmehelpdesk.com) (https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/showthread.php?t=849979&page=2&p=3889105#post3889105)
“Some” Republicans (not all, as Joe said) see a big pot of money and they want to spend it. no they don't want to spend it. They want to save the plan .
Why don't you say why the program is near insolvent now. Yes demographics and life expectancy play a role . But the biggest reason is the big lie that the Dems use about it ;that it is put away in a secure" lock box "only to be used for the benefit of the recipients and those who pay for the program . In truth the money is fungible in the eyes of the deep state ; and gets lumped in with all the other general revenue collected from the taxpayer .
Demographics
1960 it was 5 to 1 workers to retirees
2005 3.3 to 1
by 2031 1 to 1 . And the life expectancy of retires is longer and that trend will continue . It is unsustainable . You know it ;I know it ;and the designers of the Ponzi Scheme knew it .
Even worse the Dems believe in whacking almost a million future workers before they are born,
As for me ;I trust my money with banks, Wall Street investment firms and hedge funds much more than the government . The government can and has changed the rules many times . The rules for IRAs 401Ks have changed so many times I've lost count. .. And over the course of my saving for retirement ;even accounting for bear markets like we are in now ; the return on my investments far outpace what I will ever get in SS payouts .
For years I have been an advocate of giving NEW SS contributors a choice in opting for government approved funds that have higher risk for higher returns .
The system now is no better than any other entitlement program that as jl said correctly is a paygo with monopoly money .
Now the Dems call it reinvesting in government securities . That is a BS accounting trick . The government five fingers the funds and leaves IOUs in the so called lock box. When the IOUs mature the government cashed them with more IOUs ;the classic trick of a Ponzi Schemer .
jlisenbe
Feb 10, 2023, 11:57 AM
1960 it was 5 to 1 workers to retirees
2005 3.3 to 1
by 2031 1 to 1That's really shocking. If we had honest pols, we would have been talking about this 10 or 20 years ago.
For years I have been an advocate of giving NEW SS contributors a choice in opting for government approved funds that have higher risk for higher returns .But since we are in a pay as you go system, it's not possible to allow the ones paying in to decide to do something else. I don't see an out for this. I would say we are stuck with it. Now if the feds had truly been putting excess SS revenues into a real "lockbox" for the past fifty years, it would be an option.
I trust my moneyThat's really a key phrase. In a truly free country, money which belongs to me is subject to decisions made by me. That we now have a system of mandatory payment into a retirement program which very few people would have chosen says a lot about our level of freedom.
tomder55
Feb 10, 2023, 12:19 PM
Dems can play political gotcha any way they want to and completely ignore what the Trustees of the program say
Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to exceed total income in 2022, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2035
_tr.book (ssa.gov) (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2022/tr2022.pdf)
Athos
Feb 11, 2023, 04:11 PM
Yeah I pointed out how he baited the Repubs about SS here
NY Slimes scaremongering again - Page 2 (askmehelpdesk.com) (https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/showthread.php?t=849979&page=2&p=3889105#post3889105)
no they don't want to spend it. They want to save the plan .
Why don't you say why the program is near insolvent now. Yes demographics and life expectancy play a role . But the biggest reason is the big lie that the Dems use about it ;that it is put away in a secure" lock box "only to be used for the benefit of the recipients and those who pay for the program . In truth the money is fungible in the eyes of the deep state ; and gets lumped in with all the other general revenue collected from the taxpayer .
Demographics
1960 it was 5 to 1 workers to retirees
2005 3.3 to 1
by 2031 1 to 1 . And the life expectancy of retires is longer and that trend will continue . It is unsustainable . You know it ;I know it ;and the designers of the Ponzi Scheme knew it .
Even worse the Dems believe in whacking almost a million future workers before they are born,
As for me ;I trust my money with banks, Wall Street investment firms and hedge funds much more than the government . The government can and has changed the rules many times . The rules for IRAs 401Ks have changed so many times I've lost count. .. And over the course of my saving for retirement ;even accounting for bear markets like we are in now ; the return on my investments far outpace what I will ever get in SS payouts .
For years I have been an advocate of giving NEW SS contributors a choice in opting for government approved funds that have higher risk for higher returns .
The system now is no better than any other entitlement program that as jl said correctly is a paygo with monopoly money .
Now the Dems call it reinvesting in government securities . That is a BS accounting trick . The government five fingers the funds and leaves IOUs in the so called lock box. When the IOUs mature the government cashed them with more IOUs ;the classic trick of a Ponzi Schemer .
It's easy to criticize Social Security - everybody does it. What is needed are solutions to go along with the criticisms. Privatization is not one of them. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
One thing cannot be denied that overrides all criticisms:
Social Security is the most effective government program in the history of the world to alleviate poverty.
tomder55
Feb 11, 2023, 04:19 PM
Privatization is not one of them. It would be an unmitigated disaster. How do you know ? Most people have funded the majority of their retirement through self -funding or employer partial funded private retirement plans . They work .
Contrasted with the Ponzi scheme the government concocted that is stuck in 1930s thinking when there were no other options . Sunset it and make changes in the program that are urgently needed .
Athos
Feb 11, 2023, 04:36 PM
How do you know ?
I know because far too many people are not savvy enough to manage their old-age funds effectively. These people need others to manage for them. It is naive to think otherwise.
Most people have funded the majority of their retirement through self -funding or employer partial funded private retirement plans . They work .
Good for them. That doesn't change my comment above.
Contrasted with the Ponzi scheme the government concocted that is stuck in 1930s thinking when there were no other options .
A Ponzi scheme requires intention to deceive and steal money. That does not describe Social Security. It is simply a scare tactic to undermine Social Security.
Sunset it and make changes in the program that are urgently needed .
Easy enough to make necessary changes without sunsetting the program. Sunsetting is an obvious scheme to ultimately kill Social Security. It dwarfs the damage a Ponze scheme could ever do.
tomder55
Feb 11, 2023, 04:41 PM
I know because far too many people are not savvy enough to manage their old-age funds effectively. These people need others to manage for them. It is naive to think otherwise.
The benevolent nanny state to the rescue because the rubes don't have the sense to manage their money even though they have demonstrated often that they are better at managing a budget than Congress ever has shown.
A Ponzi scheme requires intention to deceive and steal money.
Maybe I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to the tragedy of unintended consequences . Either way the people who have paid into the plan since they started working will be the biggest losers. You know and I know that it is going to become another welfare system means tested to death .
jlisenbe
Feb 11, 2023, 04:52 PM
This can't go on forever. The borrowing and printing possibilities will play out sooner or later, and then what?
tomder55
Feb 11, 2023, 05:18 PM
Short term there will be a hair cut of benefits by 21% to cover the entitlement into 2034 . After that the demographics get even worse .The writing is on the wall . The "changes" that will be made in the near future will be means testing and changing of eligible age past 72 years of age . Congress is already looking at that untapped pocket pick by the government of tax confiscation of IRAs 401Ks and private pensions (public service unions pensions will likely already be in taxpayer bailout. )
The easiest way for them to execute the theft will be to means test SS distributions . The Motley Fool describes one such example ..
As a fictitious example, lawmakers could choose to implement partial reductions at say $80,000 in adjusted gross income (AGI) and cut benefits completely at $120,000 in AGI. That would mean anyone currently receiving benefits, who earned less than $80,000 in AGI in the previous year, would receive their full Social Security monthly benefit in the current year. However, if someone earned between $80,000 and $119,999 in AGI, their monthly benefit would be partially reduced. Should they make $120,000 or more in AGI, they'd forfeit their benefit entirely.
What Is Means-Testing, and How Could It Affect Social Security? | The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/08/16/what-is-means-testing-and-how-could-it-affect-soci.aspx#:~:text=In%20its%20simplest%20form%2C%20 means,no%20benefit%20check%20at%20all.)
In other words it will be another government welfare program.
They go on to say
..it doesn't appear that means-testing alone would erase the projected $13.2 trillion cash shortfall the program is facing over the next 75 years.
You can take comfort in the fact that Medicare is in even worse shape. That will be insolvent before the end of the decade The Dems solution ? Put even more people on a Medicare ;dependent on government for your health care ,program .
Athos
Feb 11, 2023, 05:48 PM
The benevolent nanny state to the rescue because the rubes don't have the sense to manage their money even though they have demonstrated often that they are better at managing a budget than Congress ever has shown.
These are propaganda words without specifics and therefore with little effective meaning. They do nothing to challenge the meaning of my post about people who will be financially ruined by privatizing Social Security. BTW, financial ruin awaits some of the SAVVY folks also. Need I explain?
Either way the people who have paid into the plan since they started working will be the biggest losers.
Absolutely not true! First, let's examine the remedies - known and, naturally, some unknown that will surely arise in the future. We can examine them when they arrive.
You know and I know that it is going to become another welfare system means tested to death .
I know nothing of the sort. You don't show much optimism in the human species being able to solve what can appear to be intractable problems at the moment.
In other words it will be another government welfare program.
I think this is your real objection to Social Security - it's a government welfare program. May I remind you of these words from the US Constitution?
The Congress shall have Power To ....... provide for the ....... general Welfare of the United States.......
jlisenbe
Feb 11, 2023, 06:06 PM
hair cut of benefits by 21%21% or 2.1%? The first option would be quite the haircut.
General welfare means everyone benefits. The idea of individual payments was never considered to be a part of it. But it's a pols dream when they get to appear to be the soul of charity by giving away someone else's money.
tomder55
Feb 11, 2023, 06:31 PM
21% or 2.1%? The first option would be quite the haircut.
Who's Ready for a 21% Cut to Their Social Security Benefits? | The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/06/18/whos-ready-for-a-21-cut-to-their-social-security-b.aspx)
tomder55
Feb 11, 2023, 06:51 PM
I think this is your real objection to Social Security - it's a government welfare program. May I remind you of these words from the US Constitution?
The Ponzi Scheme was sold as an insurance. That was the lie/fraud that makes it a Ponzi Scheme .
jl in right in that 'general welfare 'does not mean individual or factional welfare .It means promoting the national welfare. There is no other part of Article 1 section 8 that doesn't deal with national concerns It refers to thinking beyond the personal interests and consider instead the interests of the country at large.
The idea that the framers intended the clause to be a freebee giveaway by a massive leviathan nanny state is a deliberate distortion of intent .
Athos
Feb 12, 2023, 02:12 AM
The Ponzi Scheme was sold as an insurance. That was the lie/fraud that makes it a Ponzi Scheme
Social Security is insurance. That does not make it a Ponzi scheme.
The idea that the framers intended the clause to be a freebee giveaway by a massive leviathan nanny state is a deliberate distortion of intent .
The major distortion of anything here is how you have characterized the program as a "massive leviathan nanny state". Hardly objective credible phrasing, is it?
Interesting how you rely on the Framer's intention from 225 years ago, although Framer Hamilton took a modern approach. Also interesting how you deny the Framer's intention from 225 years ago when it comes to the Second Amendment and take the false modern reading.
tomder55
Feb 12, 2023, 02:52 AM
The Dems have completely abandoned any pretext of fiscal responsibility and the Repub swamp only pays lip service to it . It was not that long ago when even Bubba said that the era of big government is over .
Plenty of big ideas ;but only a transparently phony mention of how to pay for their plans . (tax the rich.....the added revenue will be a drop in the bucket for what is required )
Since the 1940s, tax collections have never been more than 20% of GDP and much of that goes to redistribution gimmicks . Higher marginal tax rates slow the economy negating the alleged value of jacking up taxes.
The discretionary spending slice of the pie shrinks daily .The fights over the sliver left will be intense .
Mandatory spending on entitlements is going to gobble up any resources they think are available for their wish list of gimmies .
1970 the discretionary part of the budget was 62% Today it is 30% . Everything else is mandated spending (entitlements and debt service )
And don't you dare touch those entitlements !
How bad is it ? Now even if the government seized the entire GDP ($ 23.32 trillion) we would still be in the red by more than $7 trillion .
So yeah the Repubs went immediately into the defensive and swore they will never cut Social Security when everyone from both parties knows that is exactly what is going to happen.
In 5 years the Medicare Trust Fund will run dry . The same will happen to SS in a decade . The irony is that by agreeing to do nothing ;they are effectively announcing a 20% cut in SS benefits . But they can fool the people by not actually saying it .
The Repubs feign fiscal responsibility by proposing cuts in discretionary spending . But that in itself will not get it done because it is such a small part of the budget .
tomder55
Feb 12, 2023, 03:21 AM
Yeah Hamilton invented the notion of implied powers that plague us to this day . He was the founder of the Federalist Party that got booted into the dust bin of history in a single generation .
I'm not saying that a national banking system was unnecessary . If so then an amendment would've been the proper way to get it done .
What Hamilton did was ,as Madison argued, “a broad construction of federal powers … [that would deliver] a powerful blow at the barriers against an indefinite expansion of federal authority,” using so called implied powers found in the "commerce clause " and the " necessary and proper clause"
Hamilton’s Treasury Department and a great Constitutional debate (yahoo.com) (https://www.yahoo.com/news/hamilton-treasury-department-great-constitutional-debate-100408258.html)
The out of control national debt can be directly linked to the out of control expansion of federal powers that started with Hamilton .
jlisenbe
Feb 12, 2023, 06:02 AM
Who's Ready for a 21% Cut to Their Social Security Benefits? | The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/06/18/whos-ready-for-a-21-cut-to-their-social-security-b.aspx)
I have no doubt it's coming. My wife and I will be OK, but there are millions out there who have made that SS check their primary income. It will be a huge problem for them.
tomder55
Feb 12, 2023, 06:38 AM
I have no doubt it's coming. My wife and I will be OK, but there are millions out there who have made that SS check their primary income. It will be a huge problem for them.
You mean the common man ;the little people the Dems pretend to protect ? Here is another factoid . Your return on investment for SS is 2% on average . If you invest in annuities you get the same return . If you put your money in safe T bills the return is greater.
As far as the people being too stupid to figure out basic investing ;if the school system spent half the time worrying about teaching students real life skills like principles of saving and investing instead of proper pronouns for addressing transformers ,maybe the people would not be so dependent on the benevolent nanny state .
Athos
Feb 12, 2023, 08:54 AM
It will have been 100 years that the Social Security Insurance program kept millions of seniors out of poverty in their old age. Not bad for a government program, not bad for ANY program.
Now that times are changing, we should be looking to continue such an excellent poverty-fighting program instead of moaning its predicted demise.
Here's one good idea:
The school system should spend sufficient time teaching students real life skills like principles of saving and investing.
Sound familiar, tomder? That's only one idea, and it's yours.
As for the average ROI being 2%, that takes some looking at. For example it does not consider the following aspects of Social Security:
It’s adjusted almost every year for inflation
It’s not 100% taxable
It’s backed by the US Government
It will pay you for as long as you live
Also, the average ROI you mentioned if privatized may increase or decrease subject to many factors including a financial tanking when capitalism encounters one of its periodic panics. Woe to those entering retirement when that happens, and it will happen.
A society that does not take care of its elderly cannot call itself a civilized society.
jlisenbe
Feb 12, 2023, 08:58 AM
It’s backed by the US Government
That's not really true. It's backed by the productive, financial capacities of the American people. And that's the problem. The 15% being paid in currently is not going to be sufficient to pay the bills in just a few more years. Then what?
A society that does not take care of its elderly cannot call itself a civilized society.Who instituted that rule?
Athos
Feb 12, 2023, 08:08 PM
That's not really true. It's backed by the productive, financial capacities of the American people.
It's FUNDED by the taxpayer as is almost all government spending. Congessional legislation backs the program as almost all government programs are backed.
The 15% being paid in currently is not going to be sufficient to pay the bills in just a few more years. Then what?
Here's one good idea:
The school system should spend sufficient time teaching students real life skills like principles of saving and investing.
That's only one idea. It's from tomder.
Who instituted that rule?
It's not a "rule" - it's a principle of properly treating old people. If you look hard enough, you can probably find it or something like it in the Bible.
jlisenbe
Feb 12, 2023, 08:34 PM
Here's one good idea:
The school system should spend sufficient time teaching students real life skills like principles of saving and investing.I get the point about that. It's got several answers. One is that, at least in my state, that is already being done at some level. Probably not enough, to be sure. But the big issue is the fact that schools have been consistently loaded with more and more to teach for the past twenty or thirty years. The plate is pretty full right now. It's a tough issue to resolve.
I do see what you are saying about old people. Certainly we are to love our neighbors as ourselves, but that is a command for individuals. Does it apply to governments? I don't know. And then how much should older people plan for their old age so that the government doesn't have to take care of at least most of us? I know my wife and I do pretty well, but then we have no debt, so that helps a great deal.
The bottom line is that SS is heading for trouble. We can likely do some things to help now. Increasing the age of eligibility will have to happen. Benefits will have to be scaled back some. Withholding will likely increase. It's not going to be pleasant which is why our current crop of pols avoid it.
Athos
Feb 12, 2023, 09:30 PM
Certainly we are to love our neighbors as ourselves, but that is a command for individuals. Does it apply to governments?
Yes. Individuals (the people) act through their elected representatives in government. There is no other large-scale effective way to do it other than via government.
And then how much should older people plan for their old age so that the government doesn't have to take care of at least most of us?
The bottom line is that SS is heading for trouble. We can likely do some things to help now. Increasing the age of eligibility will have to happen. Benefits will have to be scaled back some. Withholding will likely increase.
The problems are well-known. What is needed are solutions for today, tomorrow and the years to come.
tomder55
Feb 13, 2023, 07:23 AM
An idea of mine would be to ask millionaires to donate their Social Security payments back to the government to be allotted among needy old people.
That could very possibly take place.
Except it won't be voluntary . It will be a tax gimmick confiscation along the lines of the blond haired blue eyed native American's tax on unrealized gains scheme .
Or they will make rules changes to private plans to essentially bail out SS
as I posted about in 2011
Seizing private pensions (askmehelpdesk.com) (https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/current-events/seizing-private-pensions-540413.html)
tomder55
Feb 13, 2023, 07:59 AM
I'm being realistic. The only thing I see is pain and crew cuts .
Athos
Feb 13, 2023, 08:08 AM
I'm being realistic. The only thing I see is pain and crew cuts .
You should try to improve your disposition. Twenty minutes of meditation twice a day will do wonders for you.
tomder55
Feb 13, 2023, 08:31 AM
OK here is my plan . Refund all the money collected for everyone who has contributed to the plan with that 2% interest . Allow everyone the CHOICE of a government guaranteed return plan if they think they are too stupid to figure out how to invest for themself . Let the rest of us contribute to a plan of our choice with the caveat that we MUST invest at a rate that would've been in the payroll deduction for the failed SS program . The government can regulate and exclude such plans that are obviously too risky (called the Madoff -SBF rule) . The government may NOT exclude plans for any other reason than that exception .
jlisenbe
Feb 13, 2023, 08:33 AM
You can't do that, Tom. It's a pay as you go system. There is no SS trustfund that's worth talking about. If people stop paying in, then benefits will stop going out. Then what?
Otherwise I really like the idea! Perhaps even better would be for the government to mind its own business and let citizens take care of their own lives.
Athos
Feb 13, 2023, 08:50 AM
OK here is my plan . Refund all the money collected for everyone who has contributed to the plan
Good. You're thinking.
Allow everyone the CHOICE of a government guaranteed return plan if they think they are too stupid to figure out how to invest for themself
Calling people stupid doesn't help your plan. Try to resist such language.
Let the rest of us contribute to a plan of our choice with the caveat that we MUST invest at a rate that would've been in the payroll deduction for the failed SS program
It might be hard finding a RATE of investment comparable to the SS program depending on how the SS RATE is computed, but it bears consideration.
The government can regulate and exclude such plans that are obviously too risky (called the Madoff -SBF rule)
Good idea.
The government may NOT exclude plans for any other reason than that exception .
Not a good idea. Better that the government approve plans instead of a carte blanche exclusion.
Keep thinking.
tomder55
Feb 13, 2023, 08:59 AM
It might be hard finding a RATE of investment comparable to the SS program depending on how the SS RATE is computed, but it bears consideration.
Every annuity in the country pays a minimum of 2% . Treasury bills are paying more with the current interest rates . I reinvest in treasuries all the time . My current short term bond is going to return 3+% all very safe and government guaranteed . I bonds issued in the last year are paying 6+ %
Athos
Feb 13, 2023, 09:10 AM
Every annuity in the country pays a minimum of 2% . Treasury bills are paying more with the current interest rates . I reinvest in treasuries all the time . My current short term bond is going to return 3+% all very safe and government guaranteed . I bonds issued in the last year are paying 6+ %
Excellent!
jlisenbe
Feb 13, 2023, 02:06 PM
I reinvest in treasuries all the time . My current short term bond is going to return 3+% all very safe and government guaranteed .Inflation is 9%, so how is that a winner? Are you thinking relative to the stock market?
I'm still curious about your plan in post 29. How will the money paid in be reimbursed? Where will it come from? And if current workers are allowed to stop paying FICA, then how will current benefits be funded?
tomder55
Feb 14, 2023, 09:25 AM
Inflation is 9%, so how is that a winner? Are you thinking relative to the stock market?
Yes and to the ROI from the money put into the SS through payroll deduction. At best the average return is around 2% AND that is likely to shrink. Most new workers will probably put more into the scheme than they will see.
I don't see a way out of the coming collapse . All they can do is buy a few years like they did in 1984 . That was a raising of taxes and a cut in benefits .
I know that reimbursement is out of the question .But I would like to see young workers given a choice . Ponzi schemes screw people with skin in the game. SS is no different .
BTW CPI rose again today despite Fed rate hikes. This is not going to be a soft landing . The Fed will force a recession to fix it .
tomder55
Feb 14, 2023, 09:40 AM
What I do is convert stocks to bonds after I determine my annual budget . Then I scatter their due dates throughout the year . That way I always have cash available to withdraw from the retirement funds . I am determined to not tap into SS until I can get the max allowed .
As noted treasuries get better yield that SS . Stocks have been negative since December of last year and I don't see their return until the inflation and the fall out from the covid monopoly money liquidity injection is corrected... if ever .
money heist liquidity injection - Google Search (https://www.google.com/search?q=money+heist+liquidity+injection&source=lnms&tbm=vid&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi-waekuZX9AhUgD0QIHQGuC4QQ_AUoA3oECAEQBQ&biw=1920&bih=961&dpr=1#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:6af93c3c,vid:uSC_09SoKGg)
I also have to make it as easy as possible for my family when I am called . So I have been biting the bullet and converting the retirements funds to Roths so the taxes are on me .
tomder55
Feb 16, 2023, 06:27 AM
SS is unsustainable because it is set up like a Ponzi Scheme.
1940 there were 160 workers per retiree Today less than 3 .
To extend it further than a decade there will need to be a 20% cut in benefits and /or an increase in the payroll confiscation. In the last 2 decades to keep the plan afloat the income that was taxable went from $87,000 in 2003 to $113,000 a decade ago to $160,200 today . And still it will be insolvent in 10 years .
This of course hits the low income workers the hardest. Let's say a worker has a minimum wage job. They may pay no or virtually no income taxes and still be hit for the full amount of their 12.4% obligation for SS taxes .
How does a retire fare ? A worker making average wages can expect SS to pay them $20,000 . Had that worker put that money into an IRA they would get 3 x the amount.
Comparing the Returns from Tax-Favored Retirement Plans to Social Security Yields | Tax Foundation (https://taxfoundation.org/comparing-returns-tax-favored-retirement-plans-social-security-yields/)
And is the SS payout your money ? No You are not guaranteed anything
The Court ruled that there is no contractual right (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contractual_right) to receive Social Security payments. Payments due under Social Security are not “property” and are not protected by the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution) . The interest of a beneficiary of Social Security is protected only by the Due Process Clause.
Flemming v. Nestor - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flemming_v._Nestor)
It is an outdated program. When it was passed there was nothing for seniors . Seniors without family support were consigned to poverty .
Now the reverse is true . Households run by seniors have more than twice the wealth of those by the young workers who support the program.
Average Net Worth by Age for Americans | Lexington Law (https://www.lexingtonlaw.com/blog/finance/average-net-worth-by-age.html#age-group)
The answer is to wind the program down. Reducing the benefits for younger workers and give them an opt out . Take care of the seniors who REALLY need the program with other welfare programs .,
For the "stupid people" who can't manage their finances ;enlist the employer to make mandatory payroll payments into a private retirement program or an employer sponsored one . The good news is that it REALLY is the worker's money ....not some vague promise by the government for future returns that can be arbitrarily changed any time Congress choses to do so.
jlisenbe
Feb 16, 2023, 07:31 AM
The answer is to wind the program down. Reducing the benefits for younger workers and give them an opt out . Take care of the seniors who REALLY need the program with other welfare programs .,That would be a swamp that most would not care to enter. I don't see a way out. It seems we are going to have to find some way to make this continue to limp along. Payroll taxes will be increased and the age of retirement will increase. And we haven't talked about Medicare which is another nightmare to consider. Wife just had a pacemaker put in. 24 hours in the hospital and the bill was north of 40K. This cannot continue forever.
tomder55
Feb 16, 2023, 07:49 AM
I would . But yes I am in the minority . GW Bush proposed something similar in 2005 and it was summarily dismissed. Had it been adopted we would not be having this discussion today.
jlisenbe
Feb 16, 2023, 09:18 AM
I think part of your argument comes down to not punishing the responsible in order to help those who are not responsible. That's an ongoing issue in our country.
tomder55
Feb 16, 2023, 11:15 AM
We have put a real heavy burden on our children . If I was part of the generation I would rebel against the boomers .
jlisenbe
Feb 16, 2023, 11:47 AM
And it's all for no really good reason. If the feds had spent the last fifty years putting the SS surplus into the hilariously named "trust fund", then there would be no problem, or at least for next two or three decades. Some common sense, a rare commodity in Washington, would work wonders.
tomder55
Feb 17, 2023, 05:00 AM
The Slimes Jim Tankersly writes
"On Wednesday, the budget office predicted Social Security spending would grow by two-thirds over the coming decade,"
(https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/us/politics/social-security-costs-biden-republicans.html)
Inflation makes this worse. SS COLA this year is 8.7% increase in benefits . The CBO now projects SS spending over the next decade to be $412 billion more than it projected last May. "By 2033, the forecasts suggest, the federal government will be spending as much on Social Security alone as it does on all discretionary spending — military and otherwise — combined".