A 1,500-ton naval vessel with a crew of 104 sank off the island of Baengnyeong in the Yellow Sea today. The cause is unknown, but the BBC has reported that a torpedo was involved.

South Korea has said there was an explosion at the stern, and it is investigating whether a torpedo attack from North Korea was the cause. The Yellow Sea between North and South Korea do see the occasional naval clashes, but the loss of a surface combatant on this scale would be extremely significant. This of course is not the 1st incident in recent weeks ,but nothing of this magnitude has happened in a long time.

There have been no reports of casualties. South Korea hasconvened an emergency meeting of security ministers.

All I know is it sent stocks down and then back up after reports it was not likely an attack (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62P30E20100326?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a49:g43:r1:c 0.598154:b32243182:z0) by the Norks.

I certainly hope it was not an attack by the North, just as the stock markets are doing well. The last thing the world needs is another war.

I understand the old saying that the 1st 3 reports are normally wrong . However this doesn't pass the smell test .

Late January the Nork fired an artillery salvo into the sea target unknown and the South responded with return fire at no one in particular .
November ships from the 2 navies exchanged fire. The Nork ship returned to port ablaze.

Now before a naval vessel gets a gaping hole in it sufficient to sink it ,it first fired at a flock of birds ?

OK I get the idea that they are trying to defuse it and perhaps that is the right course ,but too often NORK provocations get dismissed.

The maritime border should be watched closely to see how the incident is used as a political tool as Kim Jong mentally Il resumes international negotiations... and the Norks prepare for a leadership transition in the post Kim world.

Update

46 sailors are missing and although the hunt for survivors continues ,hope is fading fast.

I can say for certain that this "incident" occurred with the back drop of the annual joint military exercises the S.Koreans and the US participated in last weekc called 'Foal eagle'. US Naval vessels were in the general area.

But it also occures under the backdrop of harsh rhetoric between the Korean nations. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young recently said that would launch a preemptive strike if there are clear signs of a planned nuclear attack by the North. “We regard the scenario for a preemptive strike as an open declaration of war against us,”
The NORKs responded in kind.
North Korea Korea Threatens War Over Preemptive Strike Warning : THE TEMASEK REVIEW (http://www.temasekreview.com/2010/03/26/north-korea-korea-threatens-war-over-preemptive-strike-warning/)

Such rhetoric is routine between the nations ;but the unknown is the physical condition of Kim ,and rumors of a potential succession struggle .

Update

It is pretty clear that the Cheonan spit in half from either a torpedo or a floating mine directed at the ship from the NORKS.

The official position of South Korea is to try to keep a lid on the incident ,but eventually the truth will out.
Then what will happen when it is revealed that a ship of the fleet was sunk and some 46 sailors were killed,probably by a deliberate act of war ?

While South Korea downplays the incident ;the NORKS continue to fan the flames. Today they warned both the US and S Korea against allowing journalists into the DMZ .They said “If the US and the South Korean authorities persist in their wrong acts to misuse the DMZ for the inter-Korean confrontation despite our warnings, these will entail unpredictable incidents including the loss of human lives in this area for which the US side will be wholly to blame”.

Then what will happen when it is revealed that a ship of the fleet was sunk and some 46 sailors were killed,probably by a deliberate act of war ? Hello tom:

It's a small matter, but it wasn't really a "deliberate act of war". The two sides are STILL at war from the last time. Nonetheless, what SHOULD we do? Unlike, the Middle East, South Korea IS our protectorate. Can we afford a 3rd war? And, this one ain't going to be against a few desert rats. What's China going to do? The Norks were THEIR protectorate the last time.

excon

Defense Minister Kim Tae-young told parliament Friday that he believes a torpedo and not a North Korean sea mine as he had claimed earlier in the week was the more likely cause of the ship's destruction.
S. Korea: Torpedo May Have Sunk Warship | Asia | English (http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/S-Korea--Torpedo-May-Have-Sunk-Warship-89783852.html)

Earlier this week SK President Lee
Ordered the militrary on alert after a week of silence on all sides.

Update

South Korea weather permitting will be able to raise the aft section of the corvette Cheonan and possibly account for the 44 missing sailors . Reports show a big gaping hole in the hull .We will know definitively if this was an internal explosion or one from a torpedo or floating mine.

In between bows to Hu perhaps POTUS reminded the Premier that the lid on this story cannot stay on forever and that both nations on the Korean peninsula are not so quitely preparing for conflict.

AFP: N.Korea stages military exercise, amid tensions (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gP4Dn-yH3yjj2OUXJD4-nRYsNMlg)


YONHAP NEWS (http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2010/04/14/59/0301000000AEN20100414004300315F.HTML)

Update

S Korea is reporting that they have found torpedo residue on the sunken hull of the Cheonan. It is almost impossible to avoid concluding that North Korea brazenly and premeditatively torpedoed the ship.

Under normal conditions that would be a provocation that would reignite the war that never ended. I am sure the South Korean Navy has a very short trigger at this point and is most likely pressuring the civilian government to respond.

But from the looks of it ,the government is doing everything it can to avoid dealing with this.
During the briefing on Monday, neither Mr. Kim nor Admiral Moon mentioned North Korea.
Traces of Explosive Found on Sunken S. Korean Ship - NYTimes.com (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/world/asia/11korea.html)

Of note is the fact that Evita is planning a visit of S Korea next week ,about the same time the investigation is wrapped up.
The message is that S Korea is following US marching orders.

Last week Kim Jong mentally-IL took a train ride to China to consult with his masters . Both sides want to use this incident as political leverage over the desire to renew the 6 party nuke talks.

But if war is not the answer ;then certainly the NORKS should not be rewarded for it's aggression that cost the lives of 46 sailors and the loss of a ship of the fleet.
This is not the time for President Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak to go wobbly.Together they need to craft a resolute response ,short of war, that punishes this type of behavior.

At this point I don't know the nature of that response. From our perspective;at a minimum Evita and the President need to make it clear that South Korea is our ally and we will stand besides them in solidarity and support them.
There is much more than South Korea at stake in the Pacific Rim.

BBC published this from yesterday's news conference about the sinking of the Cheonan.

The conclusion ; it was a premeditated attack .NORK subs left port with a mission to sing a South Korean naval vessel.


he following are excerpts of the Joint Civilian-Military Investigation Group (JIG) report on the sinking of a South Korean navy ship in March implicating North Korea.

Damage to ship
A shockwave and bubble effect caused significant upward bending of the CVK (Center Vertical Keel), compared to its original state, and shell plate was steeply bent, with some parts of the ship fragmented.

On the main deck, fracture occurred around the large openings used for maintenance of equipment in the gas turbine room and significant upward deformation is present on the port side. Also, the bulkhead of the gas turbine room was significantly damaged and deformed.

The bottoms of the stern and bow sections at the failure point were bent upward. This also proves that an underwater explosion took place.

We have found evidence of extreme pressure on the fin stabiliser, a mechanism to reduce significant rolling of the ship; water pressure and bubble effects on the bottom of the hull; and wires cut with no traces of heat. All these point to a strong shockwave and bubble effect causing the splitting and the sinking of the ship.

Impact on crew
The survivors made a statement that they heard a near-simultaneous explosion once or twice, and that water splashed on the face of a port-side lookout who fell from the impact.

A sentry on the shore of Baekryong-do stated that he witnessed an approximately 100-metre-high "pillar of white flash" for 2-3 seconds. The aforementioned phenomenon is consistent with damage resulting from a shockwave and bubble effect.

No trace of fragmentation or burn injury were found [on the deceased service members], but fractures and lacerations were observed. All of these are consistent with damage resulting from a shockwave and bubble effect...

Evidence of torpedo
As for conclusive evidence that can corroborate the use of a torpedo, we have collected propulsion parts, including propulsion motor with propellers and a steering section from the site of the sinking.

The evidence matched in size and shape with the specifications on the drawing presented in introductory materials provided to foreign countries by North Korea for export purposes...

The marking in Hangul, which reads "1번(or No. 1 in English)", found inside the end of the propulsion section, is consistent with the marking of a previously obtained North Korean torpedo. The above evidence allowed the JIG to confirm that the recovered parts were made in North Korea.

Also, the aforementioned result confirmed that other possible causes for sinking raised, including grounding, fatigue failure, mines, collision and internal explosion, played no part in the incident...

Conclusion
ROKS "Cheonan" was split apart and sunk due to a shockwave and bubble effect produced by an underwater torpedo explosion. The explosion occurred approximately 3m left of the centre of the gas turbine room, at a depth of about 6-9m. The weapon system used is confirmed to be a high explosive torpedo with a net explosive weight of about 250kg, manufactured by North Korea... Additional findings
We confirmed that a few small submarines and a mother ship supporting them left a North Korean naval base in the West Sea 2-3 days prior to the attack and returned to port 2-3 days after the attack...

The torpedo parts recovered at the site of the explosion by a dredging ship on 15 May, which include the 5x5 bladed contra-rotating propellers, propulsion motor and a steering section, perfectly match the schematics of the CHT-02D torpedo included in introductory brochures provided to foreign countries by North Korea for export purposes. The markings in Hangul, which reads "1번(or No. 1 in English)", found inside the end of the propulsion section, is consistent with the marking of a previously obtained North Korean torpedo. Russian and Chinese torpedoes are marked in their respective languages...

Based on all such relevant facts and classified analysis, we have reached the clear conclusion that ROKS "Cheonan" was sunk as the result of an external underwater explosion caused by a torpedo made in North Korea. The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine. There is no other plausible explanation.


BBC News - Excerpts: South Korea ship sinking report (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asia_pacific/10130309.stm)

Congressman Gary Ackerman , a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote Sec State Evita a letter asking her to put the NORKs back on the list of terrorist supporting nations (I didn't know they were off the list ) .


As the recent sinking of the Republic of Korea warship Cheonan has demonstrated, North Korea is, in fact, intent on pursuing the opposite policy of ours, namely, undermining peace and increasing tensions in northeast Asia,"...
"The apparently unprovoked sneak attack on the Cheonan, by North Korea, and the murder of 46 Republic of Korea sailors sailing in home waters, is a clear potential causus belli, and unquestionably the most belligerent and provocative incident since the 1953 armistice was established,"

He also cited evidence of the NORKS selling weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah in his request.
Ackerman: Put North Korea back on terrorism list - Laura Rozen - POLITICO.com (http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0510/Ackerman_Put_North_Korea_back_on_terrorism_list.ht ml)

I don't think the timing of the presser yesterday and Evita's embarking on a 3 nation tour (China Japan and South Korea)is coincidental (the Chinese have been flexing their muscles in Japanese territorial waters and the Japanese may be having second thoughts about American bases on Okinawa)...
Nor is the sudden willingness of China to play along with meaningless UN sanctions on Iran.Unless Kim Jong mentally-ILL has gone completely rogue (he is threatening all out war ) ;then he is conducting business with marching orders .

I don't know if he is or not . It seems to me that there is more concern by us over what the NORK reaction would be to any response taken by us and South Korea then there is by the NORKS over what response will be brought to the table. It's as if we think there is a vested interest in maintaining the brutal Stalinist Kim regime in power for now and for his son's succession... That there is more of a worry about internal instability in North Korea than there is in the chaos the regime causes worldwide.
US weighs response to SKorean ship sinking (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20100519/us-us-nkorea-options/)

Now we are getting to the point. The South Koreans have fairly convincing evidence of an NK manufactured torpedo

The conclusion ; it was a premeditated attack .NORK subs left port with a mission to sing a South Korean naval vessel. Hello tom:

And, they're going to do WHAT about it?? NOTHING!!

excon

Hello tom:

And, they're gonna do WHAT about it???? NOTHING!!!

excon

Well ex you might have noted that NK are prepared to examine the evidence, so they are not in complete deniel. No doubt they will find that there is a rogue element or it is a southern plot to discredit them.

What do you want the South to do about it Ex, sacrifice a few million people on the altar of revenge? Is this another Gulf of Tonkin? It's all right, Ex, they are just Koreans, but remember there will be a US involvement, and in your present state you just might loose because you no longer have the numbers available for a conventional war on the scale of the last one. This is a high stakes game and NK has just called all in. Will the US now play the Nuke Joker?

What do you want the South to do about it ExHello again, clete:

I want my government to sh*t, or get off the pot. This is just like Ronnie Reagan deciding to keep 248 Marines in Lebanon for NO REASON WHATSOEVER, and EVERYONE of our boys got KILLED.

So, I want us to either defend the South Koreans, or stop pretending that we will.

excon

Hello tom:

And, they're gonna do WHAT about it???? NOTHING!!!

excon
I hear the crickets chirping already .

I really don't have a read on the Obots ;beyond our perfunctory statement of "strong condemnation" ;which I'm sure have the NORKs quaking in their boots ,I have not seen much evidence that they are willing to stand by our allies. For all I know they'll label it a “man made disaster”or claim that they “acted stupidly”and move on. I mean recently the Evita State Dept. went out of it's way to condemn Arizona while in the audience of the Chinese.

My best guess is that Evita will come back and announce a new round of 6 party talks .
President Lee is going to address the South Monday. Best guess is that there will be the obligatory calls for a UNSC response. And as I mentioned already... China is looking to limit the international response .That is why they are suddenly on board with Iran sanctions.

Sec Def Gates gave an unbelievably puzzling address recently where he brushed off concerns that the US Navy is shrinking .
Speech: Navy League Sea-Air-Space Exposition - Remarks as Prepared for Delivery by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2010/05/dod-speech-100503-01.htm)
With the rapid expansion of the Chinese blue water fleet ;with their excursions into Japanese territorial waters ,with their constant threats to Taiwan ;if the US plans to keep it's security commitments in the region ,the shrinking of the US fleet is a poor policy choice.

If we plan to cede the region to a Chinese hegemon ,then we are on the right course. South Korea can petition Beiijing for relief .

Hello again, clete:

I want my government to sh*t, or get off the pot. This is just like Ronnie Reagan deciding to keep 248 Marines in Lebanon for NO REASON WHATSOEVER, and EVERYONE of our boys got KILLED.

So, I want us to either defend the South Koreans, or stop pretending that we will.

excon

So ex your position is that the Cavalry should go in with all guns blazing and save the South Korean homesteaders from those nasty North Korean indians. Might be Custer's Last Stand all over again. Didn't you hear BO? He said he stands right behind the South Koreans? But we note; not beside them?

Like KRudd ,we are hoping Zero is a one termer .

like KRudd ,we are hoping Zero is a one termer .

You could get lucky, you will soon know whether he is going to be a lame duck

A US intelligence analysis says that Kim ordered the attack .
U.S. Implicates North Korean Leader in Attack - NYTimes.com (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/23/world/asia/23korea.html?hp)

A US intelligence analysis says that Kim ordered the attack .
U.S. Implicates North Korean Leader in Attack - NYTimes.com (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/23/world/asia/23korea.html?hp)

Does anythinkg happen in NK unless Kim the ill orders it, tell us something we don't know and we will call it intelligence otherwise

That's not the point. The point is that it is an official finding(even though there is a bit of wiggle room).. that means decisions have to be made based on the finding .

From my perspective now would be a great time to get those unification talks into high gear before the next generation of Kim is allowed to take power. But I think the opportunity will probably be wasted .

That's not the point. The point is that it is an official finding(even though there is a bit of wiggle room) ..that means decisions have to be made based on the finding .

From my perspective now would be a great time to get those unification talks into high gear before the next generation of Kim is allowed to take power. But I think the opportunity will probably be wasted .

Unification over Kim's dead and rotting body

Politics is the art of the possible

Evita seems to think that time is on our side .
Clinton Pledges Support in South Korea - NYTimes.com (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/world/asia/27diplo.html?src=mv)

She advised President Lee to have“strategic patience” .

But the provocations by Kim Jong mentally-ILL have been pretty much non-stop since Obama assumed office.
In that short time frame he has tested missiles ,conducted a nuclear test , kidnapped journalists ,and destroyed a South Korean ship of the fleet killing 46 sailors.

Since that incident he has responded to every reaction by South Korea by ramping up tensions . When South Korea suspended aid and trade he threatened to sever all ties. He has threatened more provocations if South Korea brings the incident up with the UNSC . This week more subs slipped away from port and were deployed in the Sea of Japan .
While Evita advises patience ;the NORKS continue to probe weakness and test limits.

In the past Kim would strategically act provocatively and soon after would cool it down. He was noticed and that was all he really wanted . US intel believes he's bluffing .
U.S. Intel Official: North Korea Is Bluffing - Newsweek (http://www.newsweek.com/blogs/declassified/2010/05/26/u-s-intelligence-sees-scant-evidence-that-north-korea-is-preparing-for-war.html)

This time it's different I believe. He knows his time is up and unless he provides a smooth transfer of power to his 26 year old son ,there will likely be a coup. I do not think that gaging his actions in the past is a reliable indicator for predicting how far he will go this time.

Hello tom:

So, what would you do that Obama and Evita isn't?

excon

PS> By the way, if the thrust of your post is to suggest that Kim is only doing what he's doing because Obama is weak, and that he didn't act this way when George Bush was president, because Bush was strong, I categorically reject the notion.

No this is not about Bush .But since you bring it up I'll deal with the comparison later .

Either Kim is testing the US reaction or he thinks our reaction is irrelevant. I think Kim sees an open hand as a weak hand ,as does the Mahdi hatter ,as does Putin ,Chavez et al.

His open hand gestures in recent months included removing the NORKs from the list of states that support terrorism in October... and looking the other way as the NORKs smuggle weapons ,drugs ,counterfit currency .
They are now preparing to conduct another nuke test in direct violation of SC Resolution 1718 (a resolution passed by the prompting of the Bush adm. Since you bring his name up) .

It was evident to both of us that this was an act of war when it occurred 2 months ago. I do think our reaction then and now is tepid and cautious . Nothing is going to happen at UNSC this month because Lebanon currently sits at the chair.
As far as I can tell ,Evita came away with nothing this week in China.

Now as for the difference between Bush and Obama re the NORKs . Bush actively confronted them in the international arena. He correctly identified them as a proliferator of nuclear weapons . The NORKs were forced to the negotiating table in a bilateral format but were denied direct talks ;something Kim craved . The US intercepted NORK ships carrying illegal weapon systems to the ME and worked with international banks to freeze NORK assets. As I already mentioned Kim and the NORKs were officially sanctioned because of their nuclear activity even as permanent members of the SC were reluctant to do so.

But most importantly ;regionally there was no doubt or ambiguity that the US would support and defend our allies in the region. I am not sure they have the same confidence in the Obama Adm.

Considering the way this administration has treated Israel, also our ally, do you think OHB is going to take on the Chinese connection. Don't the Chinese hold the mortgage on the USA.

But most importantly ;regionally there was no doubt or ambiguity that the US would support and defend our allies in the region. I am not sure they have the same confidence in the Obama Adm.Hello again, tom:

Continually repeating right wing talking points does NOT make them true. If you actually LOOKED around the world, you'd see that Obama is NOT a wimp. He's not even close. But, you can't see past his bow's... I don't know why.

Look. The problem in Korea, is that Seoul, is just too damned close to NK. They KNOW, without a doubt, that even with conventional weapons, NK can lay waste to that city. So, no matter WHAT happens, and I say that again, NO MATTER WHAT happens, the South isn't going to defend itself.

Now, Obama is about to REVAMP (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/31/world/asia/31koreanavy.html?th&emc=th)South Korea's defenses, at great cost to ourselves, cause nobody considered that the NORKS had midget subs. But, I'd think we'd get more bang for our buck if we just moved Seoul farther south. That, or we got to leave.

excon

My biggest concern to tell you the truth is that the NORKS have been the laboratory for Iran weapon development and strategy. The Iranians also have miniature subs and they also operate in shallow waters .They have seen that these subs are effective in sneak attacks . They will also go to school on the response by South Korea and the US .