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View Full Version : Is the South Carolina Democratic primary a must-win state for Obama?


Dark_crow
Jan 25, 2008, 11:35 AM
If he wins is there a danger he will go into Super Tuesday as the "black candidate," allowing Clinton to pick up all other demographic groups?

Wondergirl
Jan 25, 2008, 11:36 AM
Nope. No danger.

Dark_crow
Jan 25, 2008, 11:45 AM
It wouldn't matter in the general election anyway; given it is a republican state. But charges have been made that that is a strategy of the Clinton campaign so that Hillary can pick up all other demographic groups.

tomder55
Jan 25, 2008, 12:28 PM
That is the D*ck Morris scenario ;that the Clintons will continue to play the race card. He all but suggests that the Clintons are going to sacrifice SC to further polarize the Democrat vote.
RealClearPolitics - Articles - How Clinton Will Win the Nomination by Losing S.C. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/how_clinton_will_win_the_nomin.html)

There is no doubt that she is actively courting the Hispanic vote and has all but ceded the black vote (with the exception of calling in cards to get some high profile black endorsements. ) . But she reasons she is solid in the White vote so she can lose the black vote according to Morris.

tomder55
Jan 25, 2008, 12:41 PM
Tuesday Hillary drew large crowds in Salinas, CA (http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-hillary23jan23,1,4994706.story?coll=la-politics-campaign&ctrack=2&cset=true)courting the Latino vote and drawing the endorsement of the United Farm Workers of America (http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/654620.html), an influential group founded by Cesar Chavez. She even joined in with the crowd chanting "Si, se puede! (Yes we can!)" A poll shows her with a 59%-19% advantage with Latinos likely to vote Feb. 5th. The L.A. Times opined that Obama has "little name recognition" among the ethnic bloc.

Cesar Chavez, a 23-year-old Hartnell student named after the activist but who is not related, said he hadn't decided to vote for Clinton until learning the UFW was endorsing her. Holding a stack of "America con Hillary" bumper stickers, the Salinas resident said his father and grandparents were UFW members in the Salinas Valley. "When I looked at her plans, I felt she had more experience," Chavez said.Politics - Clinton gets UFW backing - sacbee.com (http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/654620.html)

Dark_crow
Jan 25, 2008, 12:47 PM
Yeah Tom…it smells of a President Clinton strategy. Got to hand it to him, he has really got a political mind in terms of campaigning using strategic courses of action that help them be successful despite the negatives associated with them

George_1950
Jan 25, 2008, 12:47 PM
South Carolina is not a must win for Obama, but the manner in which he wins and claims victory is enormous. He needs to defuse the racial schism; it is ironic that a Democrat candidate is threatening to divorce part of the FDR coalition that has remained so faithful for 75 years.

Choux
Jan 25, 2008, 12:51 PM
Framing Obama as the "black candidate" was a Clinton strategy in South Carolina, but they are abandoning that tactic according to what I heard on TV. Obama lost a significant number of white voters, but Edwards gained many of these Obama losses.

The strategy was just plain divisive and wrong.

George_1950
Jan 25, 2008, 12:56 PM
Framing Obama as the "black candidate" was a Clinton strategy in South Carolina, but they are abandoning that tactic according to what I heard on tv. Obama lost a significant number of white voters, but Edwards gained many of these Obama losses.

The strategy was just plain divisive and wrong.
As we have heard for 16 years, the Klintons will not allow anyone or anything to get in their way. To the extent that the Klintons are engaging in racially divisive conduct, it is deplorable.

Dark_crow
Jan 25, 2008, 01:00 PM
Whatever the case it was a Clinton strategy that won the day. Clinton gloated Obama into a fight which is contrary to his fundamental position: His whole campaign is about transcending that stuff.

George_1950
Jan 25, 2008, 01:13 PM
Yes, yes; and the Clinton strategy could very well backfire; is that winning the day?

Dark_crow
Jan 25, 2008, 01:16 PM
And you base that on what, George.

tomder55
Jan 26, 2008, 03:05 AM
Whatever the case it was a Clinton strategy that won the day. Clinton gloated Obama into a fight which is contrary to his fundamental position: His whole campaign is about transcending that stuff.

Exactly
Clinton's diabolical genious is setting the tone of the campaign.They are deftly turning back the challenge to the Clintoon Restoration.

Obama was supposed to be the crossover candidate that transends race politics.Obama was supposedly about hope and rising above divisive politics .Now he wallows in the mud of dirty politics where he is decidedly at a tremedous disadvantage.

Example : Hillary mentioned an association with a slumlord and Obama did not mention Norman Hsu... which connects to the whole China connection and questionable fundraising of Bill Clinton's terms (since she is running on her experience while Bill was President it is a legitimate point).An experinced campaigner would not have let that opportunity slide.

Even more important ; the Clinton's strategy has made him the favorite in SC ;a state where there is a large black voting block.He is the black "native son" . It is a must win for him now... imagine if he lost the state! As it is ;the concentration will not be on his win ;but how many white and hispanic votes he carries. If he doesn't do well with these constituencies the question is then raised; can he win a general election if he only has appeal wiith a single voting block ?He would be ;as slick Willie described him ,a "roll of the dice" .

George_1950
Jan 26, 2008, 08:04 AM
And you base that on what, George.
Bill's strategy to divide Democrat votes along racial lines could unravel the FDR coalition; the Democrat Party cannot win a national election, and probably many state elections, without the 85% black vote they have in their back pocket. Clinton may end that coalition if he continues on this path. He doesn't have to offend and shed too many black votes to expose his party to election defeat.
Let's say Hillary wins, but in the process creates enormous racial animosity within her party. McCain or Romney wins and selects a popular black male or female candidate. I would anticipate many black voters will give the Republican Party their votes.

Dark_crow
Jan 26, 2008, 09:35 AM
I see your point George, but I really don't think he will make it much past Super Tuesday.

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/y/c/1/obama_borat_parody.jpg

tomder55
Jan 27, 2008, 04:00 AM
Even after the results were in Bill Clintoon continued his race baiting :

"Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88. Jackson ran a good campaign. And Obama ran a good campaign here."

Yep... Obama is just like the fringe candidate Jesse Jackson who can win in SC but not nationally .

George_1950
Jan 27, 2008, 07:04 AM
I watched some of Heraldo on FOX last night. He is pushing Hillary to pick Obama as a running mate and says she would be stupid not to. I can't see Obama kissing that ring every day. Also, it is unlikely that a presidential candidate will select a rising star as VP.

Heraldo also allowed as how someone has suggested Condolleezza Rice as runnning mate to McCain.

NeedKarma
Jan 27, 2008, 07:24 AM
Obama wins South Carolina Democratic primary

Obama wins South Carolina Democratic primary | Markets | Bonds News | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2639524020080127)



Barack Obama won a vital contest in South Carolina on Saturday in his quest for the U.S. Democratic presidential nomination, showing strength among southern blacks who make up half the state's Democratic voters.

After losses in New Hampshire and Nevada, the victory gave Obama, who would be the first black president, a big lift heading into the Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5, when nearly half of the U.S. states will pick Republican and Democratic candidates for the November election.

excon
Jan 27, 2008, 07:39 AM
If he wins is there a danger he will go into Super Tuesday as the "black candidate,"?Hello DC:

If it's up to people like yourself, yes.

Don't forget to remind 'em that he smokes and his middle name is Hussien, and his dad is a muslim, and any other ugly stuff you can think of.

Oh, you did that already...

excon

NeedKarma
Jan 27, 2008, 07:56 AM
They can't seem to see past "black" or "woman".

George_1950
Jan 27, 2008, 07:56 AM
Hello DC:

If it's up to people like yourself, yes.

Don't forget to remind 'em that he smokes and his middle name is Hussien, and his dad is a muslim, and any other ugly stuff you can think of.

Oh, you did that already....

excon
Don't worry, excon; Billary has this covered.

Dark_crow
Jan 27, 2008, 09:59 AM
Hello DC:

If it's up to people like yourself, yes.

Don't forget to remind 'em that he smokes and his middle name is Hussien, and his dad is a muslim, and any other ugly stuff you can think of.

Oh, you did that already....

excon
So, Excon... According to you it's UGLY STUFF to be Black and smoke... :D

excon
Jan 27, 2008, 11:25 AM
Hello again, DC:

So, the poster above was meant to compliment him?? I understand, now. DC, you're silly.

excon

Dark_crow
Jan 27, 2008, 12:09 PM
excon, in English the term Parody, what the Poster represents, is an amusing imitation, not to be confused with ugliness.

excon
Jan 27, 2008, 12:29 PM
Hello again, DC:

Merriam Webster defines parody as composition that imitates humorously or satirically. Satire is biting wit or sarcasm used to expose vice or folly.

Your poster is neither humorous or witty. The only vice you point out is his smoking. Other than that, it's meant to defame and is mean spirited. It doesn't surprise me that you can't tell the difference.

Like I said, you should stick with beachcombing, cause a philosopher, you ain't.

excon

Dark_crow
Jan 27, 2008, 12:42 PM
Perhaps, excon, the different way we see things in general has something to do with how we view this…I see it as parody and you see it as satire.

excon
Jan 27, 2008, 12:55 PM
Hello again, DC:

Satire?? Dude, you missed it again. It's meanness - pure and simple. There's nothing cute, or fun or witty about it at all. Again, I'm not surprised that you think it is.

excon