Interestingly enough the mainstream media is still in the dark while bloggers who are following the situation are beginning to talk about the "final serious battlegrounds" of the war against al-Qaeda.

"Al Qaeda in Iraq is defeated," by what Jabouri says. He is the spokesman for the Iraqi Islamic Party and a member of the widespread and influential Jabouri Tribe.

Michael Yon : Online Magazine » Blog Archive » Iraqi Islamic Party says, “Al Qaeda is Defeated.” (http://michaelyon-online.com/wp/iraqi-islamic-party-says-al-qaeda-is-defeated.htm)

EDIT: Al Qaeda in Iraq [They] are being hunted down and killed. Or, if they are lucky, captured by Americans.

Apparently he thinks better of America than does many of its citizens.

I have been suggesting that for weeks . The latest OBL tape confirmed their desperate situation .

Let's move on .

I am now seeing evidence that the Taliban is splitting and some factions are flipping ;that AQ is targeting these factions ;that Pakistan is beginning to chase the remnants of AQ out of the safe havens in Pakistan ,and that Hezzbollah is now the larger threat to US interests than AQ is (the Iran factor ). Benazeer Bhutto's return has had a huge impact on the situation on the ground there . The Bhutto/Mushareef alliance has turned the tide.

AQ is countering by abandoning the fight in Iraq and sending all available recruits to the Afghanistan front where they will be between a hammer and an anvil . They are also trying to recruit the young Taliban leaders in an attempt to take over the Taliban leadership. The Taliban is about to have it's own version of the civil war that AQ had planned for Iraq. That of course means our enemies fighting amongst themselves. Not a bad deal in my book!


This is all open source information that the press presumably has better access to than I .

I have been suggesting that for weeks . The latest OBL tape confirmed their desperate situation .

Let's move on .

I am now seeing evidence that the Taliban is splitting and some factions are flipping ;that AQ is targeting these factions ;that Pakistan is beginning to chase the remnants of AQ out of the safe havens in Pakistan ,and that Hezzbollah is now the larger threat to US interests than AQ is (the Iran factor ). Benazeer Bhutto's return has had a huge impact on the situation on the ground there . The Bhutto/Mushareef alliance has turned the tide.

AQ is countering by abandoning the fight in Iraq and sending all available recruits to the Afghanistan front where they will be between a hammer and an anvil . They are also trying to recruit the young Taliban leaders in an attempt to take over the Taliban leadership. The Taliban is about to have it's own version of the civil war that AQ had planned for Iraq. That of course means our enemies fighting amongst themselves. Not a bad deal in my book!


This is all open source information that the press presumably has better access to than I .
True enough, but I suppose the local media will never catch up.

The down side is Afghanistan where is has been described [ “…as little more than a hunting lodge for our special operations forces”. There are many indicators that the Afghan campaign is at this date a complete failure…] … Instead of the planned shift toward stability that was expected to be far enough along to enable us to draw down U.S. troops and turn over the security operations to NATO forces, the Taliban has resurged, re-armed, regrouped and re-emerged as a serious military threat.”

http://michaelyon-online.com/media/pdf/dispatches/PerfectEvil/NYT_TalibanSurge.pdf

But wait, haven't you heard yet. Chou has publicly declared that the war in Iraq has been lost and the troops can't do the job. And we all know that Chou is always right. Just ask her...

Elliot

Well DC, according to Madame Pelosi today, it is "a war without end that is a total failure (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/11/01/pelosis-scathing-attack-_n_70816.html)."

Just as the media continues to ignore or downplay positive developments in Iraq (https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/politics/success-if-thats-what-147369.html), the Democratic 'leadership' continues to declare defeat. I understand politics is a nasty game and both sides want to win the next election, but I will never, ever understand how a 'leader' such as Pelosi, or Murtha, or Reid or whoever can be so damned intent on losing a war and hating a president.

Oh well, after 7 years of "piling on" Bush I guess it's good at least that the Democratic front runner is against 'The Politics of Pile-On (http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=3981)' and we can look forward to more civilized discourse in politics. Of course if we apply Hillary's logic to Bush he must be doing a damn fine job.

Well DC, according to Madame Pelosi today, it is "a war without end that is a total failure (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/11/01/pelosis-scathing-attack-_n_70816.html)."

Just as the media continues to ignore or downplay positive developments in Iraq (https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/politics/success-if-thats-what-147369.html), the Democratic 'leadership' continues to declare defeat. I understand politics is a nasty game and both sides want to win the next election, but I will never, ever understand how a 'leader' such as Pelosi, or Murtha, or Reid or whoever can be so damned intent on losing a war and hating a president.

Oh well, after 7 years of "piling on" Bush I guess it's good at least that the Democratic front runner is against 'The Politics of Pile-On (http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=3981)' and we can look forward to more civilized discourse in politics. Of course if we apply Hillary's logic to Bush he must be doing a damn fine job.
Yeah, I hear ya…:)

What they don’t understand is that we won, in a sense, the minute this lady voted.

http://knighthospitilar.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/iraq_vote_540-775534.jpg

DC

You linked through Yon's site a dated NY Slimes article(6/11/2006) . There is more recent info.availabe.

More recent reports suggest that AQ faces a crumbling alliance with the Taliban and that many Taliban leaders are seeking their own deal with us and the Afghanistan government.
News - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessi)


Diplomats confirmed yesterday that Mullah Salaam was expected to change sides within days. He is a former Taliban corps commander and governor of Heart province under the government that fell in 2001.

Military sources said British forces in the province are "observing with interest" the potential deal in north Helmand, which echoes the efforts of US commanders in Iraq's western province to split Sunni tribal leaders from their al-Qa'eda allies.

The Afghan deal would see members of the Alizai tribe around the Taliban-held town of Musa Qala quit the insurgency and pledge support to the Afghan government. It would be the first time that the Kabul government and its Western allies have been able exploit tribal divisions that exist within the Taliban in southern Afghanistan.

Nato forces in Helmand have been monitoring mounting tensions within the Taliban around the towns of Musa Qala and Kajaki.

"We have been aware in the last week that guns have been pulled and different armed camps formed within the Taliban in that area," said a military source.

According to tribal elders in Helmand and Western diplomats in Kabul, Mullah Salaam had been attempting to negotiate with the Afghan government in secret.

But details of the talks were leaked late last week to his erstwhile allies and this reportedly led to a split in the Taliban ranks.

Mushareef's raid a few months ago on a mosque controlled by radical cleric Maulana Fazlur Rehman appears to have signaled a changing of the page . Mushareef is now sending forces into tribal lands. Bhutto ,who had some influence on Rehman when she ran the country is working to flip him. He in turn is becoming a key link in talks with Taliban leaders(and also a target of AQ for a snuffing ).Taliban commanders like Mullah Salaam would not be making deals if they didn't have the support of major players in Pakistan, like Maulana Fazlur Rahman.

The NY Slimes (ignore their spin ) describes how AQ is sending all available jihadi to Afghanistan.They are in a desperate situation there . The Slimes notes that many of these jihadi are being infiltrated into the Taliban (the Slimes calls them new Taliban recruits lol).

AQ has no use for them in the Iraq AQ killing field ;and their base of support amongst the Taliban is weakening ,so they are making a play at a hostile take over of the Taliban. This was exactly the same mistake they made in Iraq when they tried a take over of the Sunni resistance. It will result in the same outcome for them.

Meanwhile the MSM is concentrating on the tail end of the Taliban offensive and reporting every KIA and wounded NATO troop ,and temporary Taliban gains. The Taliban did some schooling on our experiences in Iraq and have been employing some of the tactics used against us there like car bombs and IEDs and " suicide bombings " .

But reports of their losses don't make press. Estimates of Taliban deaths is somewhere around 3500 killed ;and sevral of their leaders on the battle field have been captured. As they lose leadership their tactics will become increasingly sloppy and costly . You may have noted the increased reports of large engagements . That is actually good news. Whenever the enemy masses troops it becomes a target rich environment.

Taliban Bench Warmers (http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/294lnrrf.asp)


"What they've been able to do is just terrorize people. And people are getting tired of it, and you can tell that because they don't have the local fighters," McGrath explained. "There's a lot of fighters down here but they're not the same as we saw back in 2001; they're coming from outside and they're just coming up here and getting killed."

And of course,just like in Iraq, the increased use of car bombs ,and fundamentalist edicts against the civilian populace will only turn them against the Taliban .They in turn will increasing be a source of intelligence.

"Al Qaeda in Iraq is defeated," Hello DC:

Yeah, I saw that banner on an aircraft carrier parked nearby. Bwa, ha ha ha.

excon

DC

You linked through Yon's site a dated NY Slimes article(6/11/2006) . There is more recent info.availabe.

More recent reports suggest that AQ faces a crumbling alliance with the Taliban and that many Taliban leaders are seeking their own deal with us and the Afghanistan government.
News - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessi)



Mushareef's raid a few months ago on a mosque controlled by radical cleric Maulana Fazlur Rehman appears to have signaled a changing of the page . Mushareef is now sending forces into tribal lands. Bhutto ,who had some influence on Rehman when she ran the country is working to flip him. He in turn is becoming a key link in talks with Taliban leaders(and also a target of AQ for a snuffing ).Taliban commanders like Mullah Salaam would not be making deals if they didn't have the support of major players in Pakistan, like Maulana Fazlur Rahman.

The NY Slimes (ignore their spin ) describes how AQ is sending all available jihadi to Afghanistan.They are in a desperate situation there . The Slimes notes that many of these jihadi are being infiltrated into the Taliban (the Slimes calls them new Taliban recruits lol).

AQ has no use for them in the Iraq AQ killing field ;and their base of support amongst the Taliban is weakening ,so they are making a play at a hostile take over of the Taliban. This was exactly the same mistake they made in Iraq when they tried a take over of the Sunni resistance. It will result in the same outcome for them.

Meanwhile the MSM is concentrating on the tail end of the Taliban offensive and reporting every KIA and wounded NATO troop ,and temporary Taliban gains. The Taliban did some schooling on our experiences in Iraq and have been employing some of the tactics used against us there like car bombs and IEDs and " suicide bombings " .

But reports of their losses don't make press. Estimates of Taliban deaths is somewhere around 3500 killed ;and sevral of their leaders on the battle field have been captured. As they lose leadership their tactics will become increasingly sloppy and costly . You may have noted the increased reports of large engagements . That is actually good news. Whenever the enemy masses troops it becomes a target rich environment.

Taliban Bench Warmers (http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/294lnrrf.asp)



And of course,just like in Iraq, the increased use of car bombs ,and fundamentalist edicts against the civilian populace will only turn them against the Taliban .They in turn will increasing be a source of intelligence.
While that report is encouraging there are still many obstacles to overcome. Remember, Afghanistan lacks the historically advanced culture that Iraq had enjoyed in the past. Also we have the opium thread of billions of dollars a year that Al Qaeda has to use as a carrot. One other thing that bothers me in the respect of success in Afghanistan is that of religion: Apostasy is forbidden in Islam and in Afghanistan it carries the death penalty.

http://www.geocities.com/realitywithbite/images/womanstone.jpg

I guess we will be seeing Comandant Bush flying a jet onto a ship and addressing the assembled military and declaring MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!

Hm, I don't think so... we are still financing this Iraq Fiasco to the tune of 7-8 BILLION DOLLARS A MONTH. Bush lost the war months ago, he stated he made mistakes, AND WE ARE IN A QUAGMIRE!

Ask anyone who isn't a Fascist Propagandist.

Yes DC... based on the news out of Pakistan yesterday ;Although Paki troops are putting a hit on the Taliban ,General Musharraf has taken the opportunity to decare Marshal law ;which makes me think I was a little too optimistic.

The biggest threat to Musharraf's authority didn't come from the Taliban, it came from his political standoff with the country's chief justice, whom he dismissed on trumped-up corruption charges .It blew up in his face when mass protests were held and the Court reinstated the chief justice.BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan's top judge reinstated (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6907685.stm)

What is happening in Pakistan is a military coup . The military has not exactly been pleased with the attacks on the jihadists ,so I expect that there will be a draw down from that front in exchange for their cooperation in the coup.

Right now the news is coming in rapidly and the dynamics may yet change again by the time I log on tomorrow. But it is a nice day for a hike . See you.

The Petraeus Curve
Serious success in Iraq is not being recognised as it should be
Is no news good news or bad news? In Iraq, it seems good news is deemed no news. There has been striking success in the past few months in the attempt to improve security, defeat al-Qaeda sympathisers and create the political conditions in which a settlement between the Shia and the Sunni communities can be reached. This has not been an accident but the consequence of a strategy overseen by General David Petraeus in the past several months. While summarised by the single word “surge” his efforts have not just been about putting more troops on the ground but also employing them in a more sophisticated manner. This drive has effectively broken whatever alliances might have been struck in the past by terrorist factions and aggrieved Sunnis. Cities such as Fallujah, once notorious centres of slaughter, have been transformed in a remarkable time.

Indeed, on every relevant measure, the shape of the Petraeus curve is profoundly encouraging. It is not only the number of coalition deaths and injuries that has fallen sharply (October was the best month for 18 months and the second-best in almost four years), but the number of fatalities among Iraqi civilians has also tumbled similarly. This process started outside Baghdad but now even the capital itself has a sense of being much less violent and more viable. As we report today, something akin to a normal nightlife is beginning to re-emerge in the city. As the pace of reconstruction quickens, the prospects for economic recovery will be enhanced yet further. With oil at record high prices, Iraq should be an extremely prosperous nation and in a position to start planning for its future with confidence.

None of this means that all the past difficulties have become history. A weakened al-Qaeda will be tempted to attempt more spectacular attacks to inflict substantial loss of life in an effort to prove that it remains in business. Although the tally of car bombings and improvised explosive devices has fallen back sharply, it would only take one blast directed at an especially large crowd or a holy site of unusual reverence for the headlines about impending civil war to be allowed another outing. The Government headed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has become more proactive since the summer, but must immediately take advantage of these favourable conditions. The supposed representatives of the Iraqi people in Baghdad need to show both responsibility and creativity if the country's potential is to be realised.

The current achievements, and they are achievements, are being treated as almost an embarrassment in certain quarters. The entire context of the contest for the Democratic nomination for president has been based on the conclusion that Iraq is an absolute disaster and the first task of the next president is to extricate the United States at maximum speed. Democrats who voted for the war have either repudiated their past support completely (John Edwards) or engaged in a convoluted partial retraction (Hillary Clinton). Congressional Democrats have spent most of this year trying (and failing) to impose a timetable for an outright exit. In Britain, in a somewhat more subtle fashion admittedly, Gordon Brown assumed on becoming the Prime Minister that he should send signals to the voters that Iraq had been “Blair's War”, not one to which he or Britain were totally committed.

All of these attitudes have become outdated. There are many valid complaints about the manner in which the Bush Administration and Donald Rumsfeld, in particular, managed Iraq after the 2003 military victory. But not to recognise that matters have improved vastly in the year since Mr Rumsfeld's resignation from the Pentagon was announced and General Petraeus was liberated would be ridiculous. Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic have to appreciate that Iraq is no longer, as they thought, an exercise in damage limitation but one of making the most of an opportunity. The instinct of too many people is that if Iraq is going badly we should get out because it is going badly and if it is getting better we should get out because it is getting better. This is a catastrophic miscalculation. Iraq is getting better. That is good, not bad, news. The Petraeus Curve -Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article2796318.ece)

yes DC.... based on the news out of Pakistan yesterday ;Although Paki troops are putting a hit on the Taliban ,General Musharraf has taken the opportunity to decare Marshal law ;which makes me think I was a little too optimistic.

The biggest threat to Musharraf’s authority didn’t come from the Taliban, it came from his political standoff with the country’s chief justice, whom he dismissed on trumped-up corruption charges .It blew up in his face when mass protests were held and the Court reinstated the chief justice.BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan's top judge reinstated (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6907685.stm)

What is happening in Pakistan is a military coup . The military has not exactly been pleased with the attacks on the jihadists ,so I expect that there will be a draw down from that front in exchange for their cooperation in the coup.

Right now the news is coming in rapidly and the dynamics may yet change again by the time I log on tomorrow. But it is a nice day for a hike . See ya.


Pakistanis Oppose US Fighting al Qaeda in Pakistan -- 11/02/2007 (http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200711/NAT20071102a.html)

Yeah, news is much gloomier there than in Iraq. According to Monisha Bansal, a CNSNews.com Staff Writer Steven Kull, the director of WorldPublicOpinion.org. believes a recent poll shows that "The Pakistani people are not enthusiastic about Musharraf, do not support his recent crackdown on fundamentalists, and are lukewarm at best about going after al Qaeda or the Taliban in western Pakistan,"

Additionally, the International Institute for Strategic Studies the IISS, “…noted that "Pakistan is unlikely ever to be able to satisfy U.S. expectations," in regards to rooting out Taliban and al Qaeda operations.

"It is preoccupied by the fear that if the extremist problem were ever resolved, Washington would abandon it, as occurred at the end of the war against the Russians in Afghanistan in 1989," the IISS added.