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I went through this several years ago. The formula is a bit complex, but it boils down to this. They take the expenses that they paid out the previous year and divide that by 12. Then then check to make sure that the balance will never go below 2 months payment. They then jack up the payment to ensure that the 2 month minimum is maintained.
One of the nice things about my current mortgage holder is that they let you manage the escrow myself. Because I can a) keep the money in an interest bearing account and b) don't have to maintain an artifical minimum I can keep my payments lower.