Well, the October unemplyment numbers came out this morning.

Experts had been expecting a 0.1% increase from 9.8% to 9.9% for the month of October. The Obama Administration was going to argue that there was a slowdown in the rate at which people were losing jobs, and this was proof that the stimulus was working.

Well, reality has just come out and bit them on the butt.

Unemployment increased by 0.4%, or 4 times what they were expecting, to 10.2%.

Additionally, the number of average hours worked by employees in the USA has decreased as well, from 33.3 hours per week in February to 33.1 hours per week in August, to 33.0 in October. That means that those who still have jobs are working (and therefore earning) less than before. Just 1 year ago, that average had been 33.5 hours per week. (Please note that these numbers are seasonally adjusted.)

Of course Obama is going to claim that his stimulus "created or saved" hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions of jobs. Well which is it, created or saved? Because these numbers certainly don't show any job creation. And I don't see very many jobs being saved either.

Is there anyone who is still arguing that the stimulus bill has been effective in any way, shape or form? Is there anyone who believes that the economy is on the upswing due to anything that Obama or the Dems have done?

C'mon folks... are you awake yet?

Elliot

phlanx

Where did I say anything of the sort

Have you ever heard of export?

Have you ever heard of international companies?

Recessions have to take a path as we both know, how that path is does depend on individual countries tackling what they see as the important issue

However, the market is so interwoven around the world that where you have major markets also in recession, it will take the combined effort from all to pull the markets out of it

As every countries markets are set up slightly different from each, the policies as you say effect the countries individual market

The EU exports some where around £250bn ($350bn approx) every year

So if your markets are in recession, they will drop our exports down, and the depending on how bad your deflation is working will depend on the value of teh dollar which wil depend on teh value of gold

And way too much to go into, the web of finance is so that each market in the worls is connected - or do you want to deny that individual polices create a market we can all trade in?

paraclete

Seems not Elliot. Stimulus in these times isn't wrong but it has to be directed and it would seem that in the case of the US it might have been misdirected.

Billions were spent bailing out the banks but that didn't help much with unemployment just some big salaries. Billions were spent bailing out the auto industry and where has it got you, not very far. Billions have been spent bailing out the insurance industry and your mortgage protection organisations and they still have their hand out. Is insanity endemic to the USA?

It is ironic to view what is happening from where I live. Here we are talking of cutting back stimulus because it is overheating the economy and is inflationary but it is also interesting that we didn't have to put any money into banks and the auto industry only got money to produce green vehicles.
Why the difference, because we believe that a certain part of the market has to be restrained for the good of the nation.

inthebox

Despite the gloomy unemployment figures, the Dow is hovering near 10000 from a low around 6500. What gives?


G&P

paraclete

Be pleased it is. The DOW has a lot of ground to make up for value to be restored in the market. Unemployment is only one indicator for the market to send price signals to investors. Right now the signal it sent is positive particularly as it is not as high as expected. Unemployment is what is called a trailing indicator. You can have growth in jobs and still have poor unemployment figures. Other indicators will signal improvement long before employment so you need to watch the other indicators, Currency Prices, Gold Prices, Oil Prices, Interest Rates, Reported Profits; These are some of the major indicators which send price signals to investors. Gold is high now saying that investors are jittery

excon

Hello again, in:

I dunno what's so surprising. The rich are getting richer.

excon

inthebox

Jan through Mar the Dow, admittedly a small an arbitrary measure, dropped to abut 6500 and plenty were blaming this administration's economic policies, yet since then the market has risen. Has Obama's economic policy changed? or contributed to this gain? or what are investors seeing in the future?

G&P

excon

Hello again, in:

That's just it. Obama's policies haven't changed. He has no intention of going after Wall Street and never did. So they resumed the party.

excon

paraclete

What you are seeing is the return of confidence. When there was little confidence investors took their losses and fled to other investments, Gold, cash Once they decided that the value of stocks wouldn't stay on the bottom for years as in the 30's they took the opportunities low prices offered, confidence returned and values rose. A great deal of value has been lost particularly in some major stocks so the market will take a long time to get back to the high index numbers we saw before but a 50% rise isn't bad, it's a good performance.

Obviously the stimulus has contributed to the return of confidence there is a lot of money and a lot of profit to be had for those companies able to take advantage of the opportunities. Much of the risk has now been assumed by the government and the market is really about valuing risk. Lower risk = higher market

tomder55

Clete is correct .The Wall Street bubble is because the Treasury is printing money like crazy and there is no other place to invest it except the market and in inflated gold values. . If you have any money in the market ,ride the wave ,but be prepared to bail out. This will not last it more resembles a dead cat bounce.

As for the unemployment figures .......here is the President justifying the stimulus bucket list .

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...020403174.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/09/us...ext-obama.html

tomder55

The NY Slimes also recongnizes that the real unemployment rate is 17.5%
The New York Times > Log In

As Elliot has pointed out ;the tried and true way to stimulate the economy is tax cuts . It worked for Reagan as it worked for JFK before him.