The Death of Conservatism

ETWolverine · #1 Oct 27, 2009, 02:37 PM

Sam Tanenhaus, an liberal historian, recently wrote a book called "The Death of Conservastism". In it, he tries to prove that the title is true.

Well, not quite yet...

Quote:

October 26, 2009

Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group

Compared with 2008, more Americans “conservative” in general, and on issues

by Lydia Saad

PRINCETON, NJ -- Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.

"Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008."

The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter. Conservatives have been the dominant ideological group each quarter, with between 39% and 41% of Americans identifying themselves as either "very conservative" or "conservative." Between 35% and 37% of Americans call themselves "moderate," while the percentage calling themselves "very liberal" or "liberal" has consistently registered between 20% and 21% -- making liberals the smallest of the three groups.

Independents Inch to the Right
Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are "conservative" has increased by one point each.

As is typical in recent years, Republicans are far more unified in their political outlook than are either independents or Democrats. While 72% of Republicans in 2009 call their views conservative, independents are closely split between the moderate and conservative labels (43% and 35%, respectively). Democrats are about evenly divided between moderates (39%) and liberals (37%).

Americans Also Moving Right on Some Issues

In addition to the increase in conservatism on this general ideology measure, Gallup finds higher percentages of Americans expressing conservative views on several specific issues in 2009 than in 2008.

Perceptions that there is too much government regulation of business and industry jumped from 38% in September 2008 to 45% in September 2009.
The percentage of Americans saying they would like to see labor unions have less influence in the country rose from 32% in August 2008 to a record-high 42% in August 2009.
Public support for keeping the laws governing the sale of firearms the same or making them less strict rose from 49% in October 2008 to 55% in October 2009, also a record high. (The percentage saying the laws should become more strict -- the traditionally liberal position -- fell from 49% to 44%.)
The percentage of Americans favoring a decrease in immigration rose from 39% in June/July 2008 to 50% in July 2009.
The propensity to want the government to "promote traditional values" -- as opposed to "not favor any particular set of values" -- rose from 48% in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Current support for promoting traditional values is the highest seen in five years.
The percentage of Americans who consider themselves "pro-life" on abortion rose from 44% in May 2008 to 51% in May 2009, and remained at a slightly elevated 47% in July 2009.
Americans' belief that the global warming problem is "exaggerated" inthe news rose from 35% in March 2008 to 41% in March 2009.

Gallup has not recorded heightened conservatism on all major social and political views held by Americans. For instance, attitudes on the death penalty, gay marriage, the Iraq war, and Afghanistan have stayed about the same since 2008. However, there are no major examples of U.S. public opinion becoming more liberal in the past year. (Gallup's annual trends on healthcare will be updated in November, so those attitudes are not included in this review.)

The conservative shifts discussed here result as much from changes in political independents' views as from changes in Republicans' views. Democrats' views, by contrast, have generally changed only slightly -- either to the conservative or liberal side -- with two exceptions: Gallup finds greater movement in Democrats' views of abortion, which have become more liberal, and their views of labor unions, which have become more conservative.

Bottom Line
Americans are more likely to consider themselves conservative this year than they were in 2008, resulting in conservatives -- now 40% of the American public -- outnumbering moderates for the first time since 2004. While Gallup first documented this trend in June, the finding has been sustained through the third quarter.

Conservatism is most prevalent among Republicans. However, the overall increase in this ideological stance since 2008 comes largely from political independents, among whom 35% say they are conservatives thus far in 2009 -- compared with 29% last year. Independents have also become more conservative on a number of specific policy issues, including government and union power, the role of government relative to promoting values, gun laws, immigration, global warming, and abortion. Republicans, most of whom considered themselves ideologically conservative in 2008, have also grown more conservative on several of these issues this year, while less change is seen among Democrats.

All of this has potentially important implications at the ballot box, particularly for the 2010 midterm elections. The question is whether increased conservatism, particularly among independents, will translate into heightened support for Republican candidates. Right now, it appears it may. Although Gallup polling continues to show the Democratic Party leading the Republican Party in Americans' party identification, that lead has been narrowing since the beginning of the year and now stands at six points, the smallest since 2005. According to Gallup Managing Editor Jeff Jones, "the Democratic-Republican gap is narrowing because more independents now say they lean to the Republican Party." That trend aligns with the recent changes in how independents perceive their own ideology and where they stand on some key issues.
Survey Methods
The 2009 political ideology results reported here are based on 16 aggregated Gallup surveys conducted from January to September 2009. For results based on the total sample of 16,321 national adults, aged 18 and older, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Source: Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group

So much for the Death of Conservatism. More Americans identify themselves as Conservatives than before the 2008 election. They have now seen liberalism, and they don't like it. They have seen moderation, and they find it ineffective at combating liberalism. They have also seen conservatism, and they increasingly indentify with what it represents.

In that sense Obama is turning out to be the best thing that could have happened to Conservatism in America. He's shown the American people an option that they DON'T like, and they are reacting to it.

You can bet the Republican Party is seeing this trend... and starting to vote accordingly in Congress. And if the Party wants to survive, they'll have to move to the RIGHT to pick up these conservative votes.

The rumors of the demise of Conservatism in America have been greatly exagerated.

Elliot

speechlesstx · Oct 27, 2009, 02:40 PM

And just as you were posting this, I was posting this. Let the spin begin...

s_cianci · Oct 27, 2009, 02:49 PM

Quote:

In that sense Obama is turning out to be the best thing that could have happened to Conservatism in America. He's shown the American people an option that they DON'T like, and they are reacting to it.

Gee, didn't we learn this same lesson back in 1976 under President Jimmy Carter? How soon we forget! History really does repeat itself and, as the old saying goes, those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.

paraclete · Oct 27, 2009, 02:57 PM

what it looks like is you have a polarisation of the electorate. what I would like to know is where are the other 2%

tomder55 · Oct 27, 2009, 02:59 PM

I started to read Tanenhaus until I realized that he was just another lib trying to tell conservatives what conservatism is ,and should be.

Basically this meme states that old conservatism is dead or dying and that new conservatism needs to emulate European models of conservatives who have gladly accepted the nanny state ,and work instead to postion themselves to be moderators acting as speed bumps to the advance of the socialist agenda /and ,or more efficient managers of the nanny state.

That would give us a purpose in life beyond the nihilsm they think we offer. He wants the conservatives to embrace what Reagan called pale shades of pastels instead of bold colors. He admired Eisenhower, Ford, and GHW Bush because they “respected the established boundaries of constitutional precedent, even if it meant carrying out actions imposed by hostile congressional majorities and adversarial courts.”

Meaning instead of trying to reverse the march of the progressive agenda ;to respect it as inevidible and don't take any actions to try to reverse it.
In his view conservatives do not offer an alternatives vision but are only out to destroy the progress of the statist.
He assumes that the statist agenda is here for good and we should just shut up and accept it.

tomder55 · Oct 27, 2009, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Gee, didn't we learn this same lesson back in 1976 under President Jimmy Carter? How soon we forget!

Indeed ! After Nixon and Ford I think people identifying themselves as Republicans were close to single digits.

TUT317 · Oct 27, 2009, 05:40 PM

Meaning instead of trying to reverse the march of the progressive agenda ;to respect it as inevidible and don't take any actions to try to reverse it.
In his view conservatives do not offer an alternatives vision but are only out to destroy the progress of the statist.
He assumes that the statist agenda is here for good and we should just shut up and accept it.[/quote]

What does conservative America believe in other than stopping governments impinging on individual freedoms? This is intended as a serious question.

earl237 · Oct 27, 2009, 06:43 PM

Conservatism has ups and downs but it will never die. I hope that economic and law and order conservatism will rise but I prefer moderation on social issues.

tomder55 · Oct 28, 2009, 02:52 AM

TUT ;liberty;along with personal responsibility is of course a major aspect of the conservative principle ,and we believe that cannot be obtained through the authority of an expanding centralized government.

In fact the Constitution was not designed to have an all powerful central government (except in the area of national defense ). The roles of the government were limited ,and enumerated and in the division of power ,anything not covered was the sole authority of the "people" (ie the states ......ie 'republicanism' ).

We believe that decisions that affect our lives should be decided at the most local level of governance possible.We believe that capitalism is the only economic theory today that is best compatable with individual freedom. Conversly we believe that this creeping Fabian socialist course the US has taken since the 1930s is incompatable with liberty ,because you cannot separate individual freedom and economic freedom. We believe that it is in our best interest to preserve national sovereignty .

So taken with that view ,Tanenhaus' big government conservatism is not conservatism at all because conservatives do not believe in a big central all powerful government . We believe the founders got it right in placing restraints on what the national government can do.

Elliot will recommend a book and so will I ...'Liberty and Tyranny :A Conservative Manifesto' by Mark Levin.
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/...SH20_OU01_.jpg

There are many new books out about conservatism;some get it right ,and some like Tanenhaus are off the mark. Levin's book is the best I've read that explains our philosophical principles and how they apply to the 21st century.

George_1950 · Oct 28, 2009, 06:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomder55

Elliot will recommend a book and so will I ...'Liberty and Tyranny :A Conservative Manifesto' by Mark Levin.
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/...SH20_OU01_.jpg

There are many new books out about conservatism;some get it right ,and some like Tanenhaus are off the mark. Levin's book is the best I've read that explains our philosophical principles and how they apply to the 21st century.

I haven't gotten to Levin's book, so tell me: what does 'conservatism' propose to do about Medicare, Social Security, and public education?