# Will I pass an EtG test in 63 hours?

Hey dr bill. Let me start off my say it is a pleasure for your guidance I have a little in sight of the test I have failed it before and saw my levels and everything with a 100ng cut off. So last year when I failed I had about 5 in a half standard drink got an etg the next day. So I was drinking those drinks from about 5pm sunday till 11pm. Went in monday about 2pm. Got the results the following monday with levels 10,000. Then I did a little research about half life and etg levels. And the research amazed me of how close it was. So I read that a stanard drink could produce up to 67,000ng of etg. So 67,000x5 for 5 drinks =335,000ng etg. Then with a half life of 3 hours=10,468. And that is right around what my etg levels were 15 hours later.

now I stupidly drank again and had about 15 standard so 67,000x15=1,005,000ng. I drank over a span of about 5 hours ending at 12 midnight sunday.I am a male 6'0 and about 145 pounds with a very very fast metabolism. So after my height etg level of around 1,005,000 the half over a period around 60 hours is 0.958. I did the calculations with the previous test and everything adds up

 mouse23 Posts: 15, Reputation: 15 Junior Member #2 Feb 21, 2012, 09:19 PM
what are the chances you think of me passing after 63 hours?
 mouse23 Posts: 15, Reputation: 15 Junior Member #3 Feb 21, 2012, 09:32 PM
i feel like the 80 hr is alot of hype and more of a marketing thing. i mean i think it can detect alcohol up to 80 hours but in very very low results even below 100ng cut off.in (extreme cases)
 DrBill100 Posts: 3,242, Reputation: 2497 Ultra Member #4 Feb 21, 2012, 09:48 PM
Where did you get the 67000 figure. Not questioning the validity as I remember it but can't recall the source. In particular, can't recall the beverage, beer wine or vodka.

If you're looking for a quick answer, 15 drinks with 63 hours from last drink seems short (100 ng) could be close at 500. I also think you might be using the wrong formula for calculating rate of excretion, t 1/2.

I can get back to you tomorrow with some details that might interest you but I'm checking out for the night and it will take a little time.
 mouse23 Posts: 15, Reputation: 15 Junior Member #5 Feb 21, 2012, 10:05 PM
okay thank you
get back to me as quick as you can pls
 mouse23 Posts: 15, Reputation: 15 Junior Member #6 Feb 21, 2012, 10:15 PM
 DrBill100 Posts: 3,242, Reputation: 2497 Ultra Member #7 Feb 23, 2012, 05:39 PM
I apologize for the delay in responding.

8 shots and 1-Four Loko (12% abv max) doesn't equal 15 drinks. You would be at the 11 drink level assuming 23.5 oz can for the latter.

Nonetheless, if you have applied a multiplier of 67000 per drink consumed you have probably overestimated EtG. Contrariwise by using the standard t 1/2 calculation (zero order kinetics) you have underestimated excretion time. (brief description here)

EtG does not follow a straight line elimination profile (i.e 1/2 divided by 1/2). Rather, in order to determine EtG excreretion a two compartment model is utilized (Michaelis-Menten, enzyme kinetics). For definition see Michaelis?Menten kinetics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia A moot point because there is no way of determining a start point.

However, in comparison to your multiplier (67000 per) another study using a measured dose of 24 g (2 drinks approx) found that EtG (peak) ranged between 12,200-83,200 Rosano & Lin This study used 4 individuals, equal doses, and as you will note demonstrates an interindividual variance of nearly 7X.

Other studies have found that consumption of a single 12-ounce beer resulted in a peak EtG urine level of nearly 4,000 ng/mL at four hours post-consumption while another study noted a peak EtG of 68000 ng at 5 hours following 3 glasses of wine. (EtG peaks at 3-5 hours post-consumption)

My point isn't to diminish your analysis or initiative. Rather, to point out that scientific data and research is absent. What does exist is contradictory.

If you have further questions please ask. Once again I apologize for my delay in response to your initial inquiry.
 mouse23 Posts: 15, Reputation: 15 Junior Member #8 Feb 23, 2012, 06:40 PM
dr bill do u see me having a chance at passing after 63 hours? im male 23 yrs old 6'0 ft 145 pounds very very fast metabolism
 DrBill100 Posts: 3,242, Reputation: 2497 Ultra Member #9 Feb 24, 2012, 02:13 AM
Quote:
 Originally Posted by mouse23 dr bill do u see me having a chance at passing after 63 hours? im male 23 yrs old 6'0 ft 145 pounds very very fast metabolism
In my opinion your chance of passing is above 50%. That places you in the low percentile of research subjects but in my experience this test performs far below reported ranges.

My experience is that few people, even after heavy drinking, are EtG positive beyond 2 days (48 hr). Please understand that my observations are experiential, naturalistic. My associates stopped using EtG testing in mid-2009 consonant with my belief that it is clinically useless for abstinence monitoring.

Based on research you should have a positive return.....based on my experience you probably will not.

By the way, I don't discount your previous calculations on EtG theory of synthesis and elimination. My return was as much invitational as counteractive or corrective. Always happy to discuss this subject/science acknowledging equiniscience.
 mouse23 Posts: 15, Reputation: 15 Junior Member #10 Feb 25, 2012, 08:41 PM
it has been 11 days and still havent heard anything. you think i am in the clear?

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